Patriots vs. Bills: Who Holds the Edge in Every Phase of the Game?

The Buffalo Bills are far from the same team that mounted a 21-point comeback and a 34-point scoring surge against the New England Patriots in Week 3.

They are not, however, a lock to lose this game.

The Bills proved that they can ride the strength of their secondary—interceptions—to victory in any given week, with four picks of Tim Tebow en route to a 40-14 rout.

And as we all know, that was the very thing that did the Patriots in when these two teams last met.

But it will come down to more than just interceptions. There are matchups across the field on both sides of the ball that have to be won and lost on Sunday. Here's how they break down

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter.

Patriots Passing Game vs. Bill Pass Defense

Yardage totals are misleading, and what wins in the NFL is efficiency. Tom Brady ranks among the top three quarterbacks in the NFL in every stat that matters—completion percentage (65.1), YPA (8.5) and passer rating (105.1).

Conversely, the Bills haven't been nearly as effective in those indicators, giving up the league's sixth-highest completion percentage (62.9) and a bottom-10 defensive passer rating (87.4).

If the Bills stand a chance, though, it lies in the hands of their ball-hawking secondary. Those hands must be sure on Sunday, as Buffalo's best bet is to do what they've done best this season—intercept passes.

That being said, Brady has thrown just one interception in the past seven games. And with so many security blankets in Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch, chances are, he'll find an open guy.

Watch out for Gronkowski, who figures to get back in the end zone facing a defense he's matched up very well against, with 14 receptions for 206 yards and five touchdowns in three career games against Buffalo.

Advantage: Patriots

Patriots Running Game vs. Bill Run Defense

The Patriots running game hasn't been dominant this year, but has been effective enough to get the job done in the situations when they need it most. It's been solid statistically, as the Patriots have rushed an uncharacteristic 67 times in the past two games, picking up 260 yards (3.9 YPA) and five touchdowns, with two of those coming off Brady sneaks.

The Bills, as usual, have been a sieve against the run, giving up 387 yards on 73 carries (5.3 YPA) and two touchdowns. That's been the story all year for the Bills, who have sorely missed Pro-Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams. 

Although New England could be playing with a largely shuffled offensive line, they still have a golden opportunity this week to keep their ground game in shape headed into the playoffs. 

Advantage: Patriots

Bills Passing Game vs. Patriots Pass Defense

If it's all about efficiency, this one could be a toss-up. The Patriots have been one of the league's worst pass defenses in total yards this season, but their 88.24 defensive passer rating (26th in the league) is more indicative of their struggles through the air than other numbers.

The Bills, however, have struggled passing over the past few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick started off red hot with a 97.8 passer rating through the first seven games of the season (155-for-229, 1,739 yards, 14 TD 7 INT), but has fallen off dramatically with a 67.4 (169-for-294, 1,786 yards, 8 TD 12 INT).

That being said, the Patriots don't have answers for the Bills skill position players in the passing game. Stevie Johnson has been a tough out for even the best cornerbacks in the league, including Darrelle Revis. 

The Bills passing game should be able to find a rhythm against New England's pass defense—everyone else has. That being said, Ryan Fitzpatrick's lack of ball control plays right into New England's hands, and if he turns the ball over as he has over the past few games, it dooms Buffalo's chances for a win.

Advantage: Bills

Bills Running Game vs. Patriots Run Defense

The Patriots pass defense will get a huge boost if the front seven is able to shut down the run. They haven't been able to do that in recent weeks, though, giving up a large chunk of yardage on the ground against the Redskins, Broncos and Dolphins. They've given up a total of 537 yards on 92 carries for an average of 5.8 yards per carry against them. 

The Patriots have clearly been affected by the loss of Andre Carter, whose skills in the running game were underrated.

Much like the Patriots offense, though, the Bills have run the ball effectively in their limited carries. C.J. Spiller has averaged 6.1 yards per carry in his previous four contests, and has carried the load with Fred Jackson on IR. 

The Bills do have some weaknesses on their offensive line. Whether the Patriots have the tools to exploit that is another story entirely.

Advantage: Draw

Special Teams

The Bills and Patriots have been similar statistically in the return game, with just one punt returned for a touchdown by each team this season.

Stephen Gostkowski had been a very consistent kicker for the Patriots before this year, but has hit just 83.9 percent of his field goal attempts this season. With injuries to Dave Rayner and Rian Lindell, the Bills will turn to Reid Forrest as their field goal kicker. He has yet to attempt a single field goal in the NFL.

Zoltan Mesko's numbers have been very impressive this season, as he has landed 23 of 55 punts inside the opponent's 20 and averages 41.4 net yards per punt.

Brian Moorman, on the other hand, has been unspectacular, with just 18 of his 69 punts landing inside the opponent's 20 and a net of just 37.4 yards per punt. Mesko also has 17 fair-caught punts as opposed to Moorman's seven.

Advantage: Patriots

Coaching

Put it this way: Regardless of talent, good coaches don't go on seven-game losing streaks. That being said, bad coaching alone doesn't breed a seven-game losing streak. Let's give Chan Gailey a bit of a break.

Still, when it comes to a head-to-head meeting of the minds, Belichick gets the edge. He has consistently posted double-digit wins even when the talent wasn't there for such a record. That highlights his ability to get the most out of the players he has and to put them in the right position to make plays.

Advantage: Patriots

Conclusion

This game has all the makings of a shootout, but that can be avoided if the Patriots get a big play or two out of their defense. The Patriots have been opportunistic all season long, and the Bills have been generous in giving the ball up over the past few weeks especially.

Simply put, the Patriots have revenge on their minds, and they likely won't let the opportunity get away against a team that has given their opponents plenty of opportunities to run away with the game.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 20