Duke Basketball: Will Second Place in the ACC Be Enough to Earn a No. 1 Seed?

Heading into the final week of non-conference games for ACC teams, it’s clear that the league will, as predicted, be a two-horse race.

With 10-1 Duke currently ranked higher in the ESPN/USA Today poll and 11-2 North Carolina leading in the AP rankings, which of the front-runners will come out on top in conference play is very much an open question.

That said, the Tar Heels appear to have the edge on sheer talent (four players on the preseason Wooden Award watch list will do that), which raises a key question in Durham. If Duke fails to win the ACC championship, do they still have a shot at a No. 1 seed in March?

Obviously, a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday. With that proviso in mind, it’s hard to like the Blue Devils’ chances if they don’t come away with the ACC crown.

Currently, the top four teams in both polls are the same: Syracuse, Ohio State, Kentucky and Louisville in that order. As good as the Big East is, it’s not going to get two No. 1 seeds this season, so it’s safe enough to strike one of that conference’s representatives (likely the Cardinals).

However, if the Orange, Buckeyes and Wildcats all win their respective conferences—as seems entirely reasonable—it’s going to be tough to avoid putting them on the top line of the brackets. All three have beaten top-10 opponents in non-conference play, and coming out on top in any of their conferences will require several more wins over ranked foes.

That leaves one top seed likely up for grabs, but if the Tar Heels finish the ACC season ahead of Duke in the conference standings, it’s hard to imagine UNC not getting the final slot.

Duke’s biggest advantage over the Tar Heels is an extra win over a ranked opponent—they’ve beaten Kansas and Michigan, to UNC’s lone win over Wisconsin to date—but that’s not going to be enough to overcome a first place ACC finish by North Carolina.

Of course, the Blue Devils could easily render the entire question moot by winning the ACC themselves. North Carolina’s upset loss against UNLV suggests they’re more vulnerable than their preseason reputation, and another slip-up in conference play could open the door for Duke to take the league title.

But if North Carolina does win the ACC as predicted, Duke will be looking at a No. 2 seed in March.