I know its sacrilege to say anything negative about the next “Great One,” Mr. Sidney Crosby.
And please, I beg a thousand pardons.
Sidney Crosby is not Wayne Gretzky. Plain and simple. I know a lot of people say he’s young and there is plenty of time, so I crunched some numbers.
I have compiled just 10 of the many records that Sidney Crosby has no chance of breaking. So take your hand off the Fat Head of Sid the Kid in your bedroom and watch as I show you the next Joe Sakic, not Wayne Gretzky.
He’s great, but not nearly the greatest.
I used my own Crosby math to estimate future numbers. Here is a list of things that I assumed to be true for the purpose of this argument:
1. Crosby will play 16 more seasons at 82 games per season.
2. He will average 100 points for the first 10 of the 16 seasons and 75 the last six. (The hope is that age and injuries will be weighed out through this system.)
3. He is on pace for 134 points this season, so that’s what he gets for this year. (NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!)
By the way, PLEASE NOTE HOW BETTMAN LOOKS AT HIM! Someone is crushin' big time.
Wayne Gretzky: 2,856 points
Sidney Crosby Projected: 2,090 points
This one is laughable. Not only does Gretzky hold the record, but No. two on the list, Mark Messier, is 970 points behind.
For Crosby to have a shot at the record, he would have to average close to 144 points per year for the next 16 years. He is good, but not that good.
Wayne Gretzky: 1,962 assists
Sidney Crosby Projected: 1,494 assists
Sid will get closer to this record then the points one, but he still will come up almost 500 short!
For Crosby to accomplish this record, he would have to average almost 100 assists per season for the rest of his career.
Does anyone still think he can do it?
Wayne Gretzky: 894 goals
Sidney Crosby Projected: 596 goals
This one will be closer than even the assists record. Crosby needs to average 43 goals a year for the next 16 years. He averages 37 a season now.
This feat will be extremely hard to manage, not just because of the shear difficulty of staying healthy for 16 years, but because of the bad teams for which Crosby may end up playing.
Crosby will eventually play on bad teams and keeping up the pace will be tough.
Wayne Gretzky: 1.32 assists per game
Sidney Crosby Projected: 0.87 assists per game
Crosby’s final career numbers in this category will be respectable when all is said and done.
But not Gretzky-good.
After averaging almost 100 assists a season for the next 16 seasons, Crosby would be a lot closer to the record but would still be under Gretzky’s mark of 1.32.
Wayne Gretzky: 12 seasons
Sidney Crosby Projected: 8 seasons
Crosby is a good goal-scorer, but he is too good of an all-around player to concentrate that hard on goal-scoring. He is everything on the Penguins and his ability is stretched across many aspects of play.
Gretzky’s supporting cast was great and it helped alleviate some of the pressure on him offensively. Even with less pressure, he managed twelve 40-or-more goal seasons.
And, don’t forget, he was the most amazing goal-scorer of all time, and it wasn’t even his best attribute!
Wayne Gretzky: 15 seasons
Sidney Crosby Projected: 13 seasons
For this one, I have to give Crosby the benefit of the doubt, because of my obviously flawed point system.
With that being said, he still won’t get the record.
Injuries, bad teams, and age will eventually wear on Crosby and he will start to drop off. It is so hard to play hockey at a top level for a long time.
Wayne Gretzky: 215 points
Sidney Crosby Projected: 147 points
It was hard to try to pin down an actual estimate for Crosby’s highest single-season point output, but I tried.
He is having his best statistical season this year and he is not even averaging the projected points I listed above.
I think he will achieve this number within the next three years, and it will be nice, but it will not even be close to the Great One.
Wayne Gretzky: 163 assists
Sidney Crosby Projected: 96 assists
This is a very hopeful estimation, considering that Crosby is averaging 65 assists per season so far in his career.
I just think Gretzky’s vision of the ice is something that Sid will never have. Gretzky could thread a pass or take the puck to the net on his own, and his talent can’t be matched by anyone.
Playing in the ‘80s and ‘90s NHL was good for his point totals as well.
Wayne Gretzky: 92 goals
Sidney Crosby Projected: 53 goals
With the goalie style of play and equipment a lot different now, it is harder to score goals. The NHL average has gone up since the lockout, but it is nothing compared to what it was 20 years ago.
With that being said, Crosby is not going to score 70 goals, but if he wanted to, he could probably score 60-plus goals in one season.
I don’t feel like Crosby will ever have the kind of goal-scoring season to put himself in the top goal seasons of all time.
(Side note: I want to see someone achieve 50-in-50 again before I die, please. I’m looking at you, Stamkos!)
Wayne Gretzky: 51 games
Sidney Crosby Projected: 34 games
Crosby is currently on a career-best point streak of 21 games.
That’s impressive. Just 30 more games and we'll have a discussion.
Even the most impressive streak now pales in comparison to what Gretzky accomplished.
Even if Crosby gets the 51-game streak, he will only have 75 points or so. Gretzky scored 61 goals and added 92 assists for 153 points through the first 51 consecutive games in the 1983-84 season.
Now that’s impressive.