What Does the Future Hold for Ilya Kovalchuk?

Ilya Kovalchuk was brought in by the New Jersey Devils via a trade with the Atlanta Thrashers on February 4, 2010, in a deal that saw the Devils give up RW Niclas Bergfors, D Johnny Oduya, C Patrice Cormier, and a first and second round pick in return for Kovalchuk, D Anssi Salmela, and a second round pick. 

Kovalchuk, 27, is the biggest pending free-agent in the worldwide hockey marketplace, as not only are many of the NHL teams lining up to bid on his services come July 1, but teams in the Russian Kontinental Hockey League are as well. 

Putting the rumors of him agreeing to a one-year $12 million contract with St. Petersburg of the KHL aside, let's take a look a the 30 teams and try to figure out where Ilya could end up next season.

First, let's toss out ten teams that don't have a realistic chance in my opinion, whether it's a lack of salary cap space, or the lack of a realistic potential fit for Kovalchuk on the team.

These teams include the Phoenix Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, Calgary Flames, Boston Bruins, Minnesota Wild, Ottawa Senators, Vancouver Canucks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, and Nashville Predators.

The next ten teams will be teams we think are still very unlikely to hotly pursue Kovalchuk, but if the stars align, or cap space is created, then it would be possible for them to enter the Kovalchuk sweepstakes.

Included here would be the New York Rangers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Washington Capitals, Columbus Blue Jackets, Florida Panthers, Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadiens, Carolina Hurricanes, and Tampa Bay Lightning.

Taking into account the above, that leaves just ten possibilities to consider for Kovalchuk's eventual NHL destination. I will dive into these ten and give a breakdown on their possible chances of landing Ilya Kovalchuk as a free agent this summer.

Another team with a lot to sort out is the San Jose Sharks, who have to figure out the future of stars like Patrick Marleau, Evgeni Nabakov, Rob Blake, and Joe Pavelski, all of whom are not signed for next season. While the Sharks (per Capgeek.com) have over $20 million in cap space available for next season, they only currently have 12 players under contract. 

Even if they let a guy like Marleau go, they still may not have room to bring in Kovalchuk.  For people who like to dream, how nice would a pairing with center Joe Thornton be?  All in all, I think if Kovalchuk wants to move to the West, he will find better fits for him then San Jose.

I think with the trip to the Conference Finals this year, I feel the Sharks will be more likely to re-sign Marleau and obviously Pavelski, which will then take them out of the race for Kovalchuk.

Chances of landing Ilya: SLIM, there is too much else that will need to be committed elsewhere, especially since Marleau has come out and stated he would like to stay in San Jose.  There are only so many cap dollars to go around, and re-signing Marleau, Blake, and Pavelski will be tough enough for the Sharks.

The Edmonton Oilers are a team with a great history in terms of Stanley Cups and offensive success that could on the surface become a reason for Ilya Kovalchuk to come to town. They also are desperate for a superstar to build around since D Chris Pronger forced a trade out of Edmonton. They also have over $15 million of cap space available.

Edmonton should try to sell Kovalchuk on the fact that a successful Oilers team has the whole city behind it and he would be treated like a legend there.  In the end, I can't realistically see the Oilers landing this big fish, so they'll have to look elsewhere.

Chances of landing Ilya: VERY SLIM, as the Oilers don't seem like the type of area in which Kovalchuk would want to live. His hockey life might look good, but I can't see him welcoming the weather and climate he would face off the ice for him and his family, when he'll have many other choices available to him.

The New York Islanders are a little off-the-radar type of team to foresee signing Kovalchuk. However, once you think about it a little bit, while the chances aren't necessarily high, you have to keep them in the mix, and here are the reasons why:

1) Kovalchuk would bring instant star power to the Island. Paired with John Tavares, they could prove to be a formidable duo, and there is enough young and up coming talent on the roster (and on the way) to at least give Kovalchuk a reason to think about it.

2) Owner Charles Wang is trying to get approval on the Lighthouse project, and what better way to help potentially seal the deal then to bring in a box office hit like Kovalchuk.

3) Per Capgeek.com, the Islanders have $29,201,600 of cap space available, in which they would have the room under the salary cap to to lure Kovalchuk.

4) The Islanders have been willing to be creative in terms of contracts in the past, even though Alexei Yashin's 10-year and Rick DiPietro's 15-year deals have not been favorable to the Islanders to say the least.

Chances of landing Ilya: SLIM—after all, the Islanders, while talented, still have some rebuilding to do, and haven't shown much reason to greatly add to their current payroll, as they look to greatly renovate the Nassau Coliseum.  It would be very surprising to see the Islanders get him, but stranger things have happened in the world.

The St. Louis Blues are another team that on the surface, you wouldn't think they would be interested in signing a player like Kovalchuk. The front office seems to be putting together a nice young team of guys working together and a superstar puck carrying player like Kovalchuk might not play into that mindset.

However, with $29,126,667 of cap space available (but only 12 players currently signed), and salaries like Keith Tkachuk and Paul Kariya coming off the books, there is a slight opening to at least contemplate it. In the end, I think there are too many needs for the Blues and I don't see them being a very realistic place for Kovalchuk to land.

Chances of landing Ilya: SLIM, as I don't see them wanting to change their philosophy too greatly to land Kovalchuk. I also don't think he's the one player that would put them over the top and allow them to become an instant Stanley Cup contender. They could be that team in a couple years, but they aren't there just yet.

It should be a very interesting off-season for the Anaheim Ducks, who will have to hear from veterans Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne and whether or not they will retire before they can officially look into signing the likes of a Kovalchuk. That, and signing the likes of RFA Bobby Ryan will tie up a lot of the approximate $19.5 million in cap space they have available.

Should Niedermayer return, you can pretty much kiss away the chance to sign Kovalchuk.  But, if he decides to retire, that could leave just enough for the Ducks to bring in the star power of Kovalchuk. They do have to figure out what it will take to re-sign RFA's Bobby Ryan and James Wisniewski, so it will be interesting to see how it ultimately plays out for the Ducks.

I think the Anaheim area could be a good fit for a guy like Kovalchuk, which would leave him out of the limelight of Los Angeles a little bit, but he would be close enough to it to help with endorsements and such.

It could be a similar situation to him being in New Jersey, right across the river from the media capital of the world, and give him enough to lay low, while being able to have everything he could want nearby.

Chances of landing Ilya: NOT HIGH, as the Ducks have a lot to sort out. Niedermayer and Selanne haven't exactly been known for making quick decisions either, so Kovalchuk isn't likely to wait and let this situation sort itself out. Too much on their plate, but it is tantalizing for Ducks fans to at least contemplate the idea should both of their aging stars decide to hang up their skates.

The Dallas Stars are a team you wouldn't think would be in the mix to get an Ilya Kovalchuk, but there is some salary relief on the horizon for the franchise, as G Marty Turco and C Mike Modano are expected to open up $9.2 million in salary cap space by not returning next season.

Right there, you have some room to bring in a guy like Kovalchuk.  

With 17 guys signed for next season, the Stars do have over $16 million left under the cap, and have a great center in Brad Richards to potentially pair up with Kovalchuk, which could make for potentially quite a pair.

Chances of landing Ilya: NOT HIGH—the Stars could be at a crossroads for their franchise, which could increase or decrease their chances of landing the big star.  Long tenured guys like Modano, Turco and Jere Lehtinen could be on the way out, opening the door for a new identity with Kovalchuk. However, they could be a team in transition too much with all the turnover.

If Kovalchuk was close with G Kari Lehtonen, they could potentially be reunited if Ilya came to Dallas, but there are probably some more likely destinations for him then Dallas.

The New Jersey Devils are the only team with the ability to sign Ilya Kovalchuk before he hits the open market on July 1, as they still own his rights. They also have the ability to trade his rights to another team to give them the exclusive window of negotiation up until July 1, but I don't foresee that taking place. 

There is little doubt to me that GM Lou Lamoriello wants to bring back Kovalchuk, but the question is, "What price would he be willing to pay, not only in terms of salary, but length of contract?" 

Generally, only Lamoriello knows this answer.  

How much did Kovalchuk enjoy his stay as a Devil?  That is also a major question for Kovalchuk to contemplate. Would he want to stay in New Jersey at a lesser cost then he might get elsewhere? That's not to say the Devils won't offer a competitive bid, but I think its fair to guess that the Devils offer will not be the highest one presented to Kovalchuk. 

Given their current salary cap and a pending contract to be needed for restricted free agent to be Zach Parise next off-season, it sort of sets a natural limit of sorts for the Devils to work around, since they will need to leave room to sign both.

I think Kovalchuk could thrive in a full season with the Devils if the logistics can be determined, but that's for Devils management to work out with Ilya Kovalchuk and his agent.  

The Devils also likely need to name a head coach so Kovalchuk would know who would be his coach he would work with before he would commit to New Jersey. 

Chances of landing Ilya: NOT HIGH, but then again, I never imagined they would trade for him in the first place, so it certainly cannot be ruled out. There also logistically are not that many teams that can fit Kovalchuk into their team without overhauling their roster. 

An up and coming team that may want to enter the fray for Kovalchuk is the Colorado Avalanche. They surprised some teams this year by making the playoffs, and could be on the cusp of taking the next step next season.  Most people would think that it could come all that more easily if a dynamic scorer like Ilya Kovalchuk is added to the mix.  

It isn't like the Avalanche don't have the salary cap space for him, as they have more then $29 million remaining under the salary cap.  

Even better, the Avalanche don't have that major re-signing left to do, although they do have some mid-priced talent like RFA C Peter Mueller and UFA D Brett Clark to deal with, not to mention filling out a roster that only has 14 guys signed at present.

The Avalanche have a long history of "star power," having the likes of Joe Sakic, Patrick Roy, Ray Bourque and Peter Forsberg amongst others who have been part of the franchise, so adding the likes of Ilya Kovalchuk wouldn't be a surprise to their fan base.

Chances of landing Ilya: DECENT—the Avalanche can certainly use the star power of Kovalchuk, and have the room to maneuver under the salary cap, so you certainly cannot count out the 'lanche.  

In the end, I think Kovalchuk would want to go a team that is more playoff established, but it will come down to how many teams give him a good enough offer, and if those teams are limited in quantity, that could spring Colorado to the front of the pack.

The organization that Ilya Kovalchuk knows better then any other is the Atlanta Thrashers. He spent the first (almost) eight years and 594 games of his NHL career with the team, netting 328 goals and 287 assists along the way. Before the trade to New Jersey, he didn't know anything outside of Atlanta in terms of NHL organizations. 

One major question is, although it was only a little over two months time, did Kovalchuk get a better feel for his time in Atlanta, or does he now think Atlanta doesn't carry the same weight as an organization as others may offer? 

Only Ilya (and maybe his agent) know this answer. 

Before he left the Thrashers, Atlanta GM Don Waddell was well documented with the high-dollar offers the team had presented to Kovalchuk. Is there reason to think the Thrashers could now come back in the off-season and make the same lucrative offers they had last January? 

The better question I think to ask is why wouldn't they?

Chances of landing Ilya:  DECENT, Unless they were greatly offended by Kovalchuk turning down their contract offers, there's no reason to think the Thrashers won't try to put themselves into the mix. The question it comes down to for Atlanta is "Does Ilya Kovalchuk want to return to the Thrashers?"

If the answer is yes, then you will likely see him return because I think Atlanta's offer will end up being the highest in terms of dollar value. 

The Los Angeles Kings appear to be the early favorites to land Kovalchuk. Like many other teams, there are some logistics and number crunching that would need to work in order for it to happen. 

If Kovalchuk were to sign with Los Angeles, my guess is it would not be a very long term deal, as the Kings don't want to handcuff themselves down the line when the likes of Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson will be due major raises.

There is a lot of good young talent on the Kings, and a superstar sniper like Kovalchuk seems to be a perfect fit. 

The downside is the Kings would likely have to say goodbye to the likes of Alexander Frolov, to keep the salary cap space for the likes of Kovalchuk. Do the Kings want to gamble on losing Frolov and risk not ending up with Kovalchuk in the end? 

That's a question Kings management will have to address in the coming weeks.  

Chances of landing Ilya: EARLY FAVORITES, but not by an overwhelming margin at all. They have the cap space for 2010-11 ($15.8 million), but will have to plan well for the upcoming years to account for salary increases for their young talent in order for it to work. 

All in all, we spell out the possibilities for Kovalchuk, and in the end, while the Kings are likely the favorites in my opinion, there isn't a big margin between teams and I'd have to rank them in this order, if I had to make a choice right now—Los Angeles, Atlanta, Colorado and New Jersey.  

However, that's likely to change greatly between now and July 1, so keep checking in for new updates.