The Biggest Overachievers in the 2016-17 NHL Season so Far
The science of scouting and player assessment still leaves plenty of room for surprises to emerge every season in the NHL.
These days, many of the league's overachievers are newcomers who are making big impacts much sooner than expected. There's also a great mix of journeymen who are proving they have more to give than they've had a chance to show through the earlier stages of their career. And don't forget the grizzled veterans writing dramatic third acts after it looked like their best days were behind them.
From youngest to oldest, here's a look at the NHL players who have most dramatically exceeded expectations so far in the 2016-17 NHL season.
Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets
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Age: 18
2016-17 Stats: 26 GP, 15-6-21, minus-2
Contract Info, per CapFriendly: Entry-level contract with an AAV of $3,575,000
Why He Has Surprised: We saw Finland's Patrik Laine light it up with a tournament-leading seven goals at the 2016 World Junior Championship in Helsinki, then score another tournament-leading seven goals in the senior men's World Championship in Russia last May.
But the kid just turned 18 in April. Surely his Alex Ovechkin-like sniping skills wouldn't translate instantly to the NHL?
Turns out they can. At the 26-game mark of his NHL career, Laine has 21 points and with 15 goals is second in the NHL's goal scoring race, behind only Sidney Crosby. He's on pace for 47.
If Laine can hold that pace, he'll not only challenge for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league's leading scorer this year, but he'd put himself fifth on the list of the most prolific rookies—and do it in an era when goals are at a premium.
According to Hockey Central, the only players in history to score more than 47 goals in their debut campaigns are Joe Nieuwendyk (51 goals, Calgary Flames, 1987-88), Ovechkin (52 goals, 2005-06), Mike Bossy (53 goals, 1977-78) and Laine's compatriot and fellow former Winnipeg Jet Teemu Selanne (76 goals, 1992-93).
In today's NHL, it'd be an incredible accomplishment if Laine could insert himself into that Top 5 at season's end.
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs
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Age: 19
2016-17 Stats: 23 GP, 7-12-19, minus-3
Contract Info, per CapFriendly: Entry-level contract with an AAV of $1.744 million
Why He Has Surprised: Coming into this season, it was supposed to be the Auston Matthews show as the Toronto Maple Leafs ushered in a new era. Fresh out of the draft, Matthews has done well, with 10 goals and 18 points. But the undersized Marner has been the surprise, channeling Johnny Gaudreau by finding ways to show his dazzling offensive prowess without getting steamrolled by big-bodied NHL opponents.
Through 23 games, the 6'0", 170-pound Marner has shown he's more than capable of holding his own in the big leagues. His upside is huge once he leaves his teenage years behind—he turns 20 next May.
Brandon Carlo, Boston Bruins
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Age: 20
2016-17 Stats: 24 GP, 2-3-5, plus-11
Contract Info, per CapFriendly: One-year contract with an AAV of $894,167
Why He Has Surprised: Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets has made waves as the best defenseman in this year's rookie class, but the Boston Bruins' Brandon Carlo qualifies as more of an overachiever.
Chosen eighth overall in 2015, Werenski played two years of college hockey before joining the AHL's Lake Erie Monsters for their run to the Calder Cup last spring. By comparison, Carlo was drafted 37th overall out of the WHL and spent just a brief eight-game stint in the AHL with the Providence Bruins in 2015-16 before jumping on to Boston's top defense pairing with Zdeno Chara this year.
The Bruins have tightened up defensively since Carlo has come on board, cutting their goals-against record from a 19th-best 2.78 goals per game last season to a fourth-best 2.21 this year and cutting shots against from 30.4 to just 27.3 per game—also fourth-best in the league.
It's not all Carlo, of course, but it's unusual to see such a young blueliner who's not a top draft pick boost his team's defensive fortunes so significantly. He'll be an important building block for the Bruins going forward.
Jonathan Marchessault, Florida Panthers
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Age: 25
2016-17 Stats: 24 GP, 10-9-19, plus-1
Contract Info, per CapFriendly: Two-year contract with an AAV of $750,000
Why He Has Surprised: If you're looking for cap-friendly value signings around the NHL, you can't do much better than the what the Florida Panthers pulled off when they scooped up Jonathan Marchessault for a little more than the league's minimum salary.
Was the undrafted Marchessault buried on the depth chart behind all the talented forwards on his last team, the Tampa Bay Lightning? Perhaps—look how hard elite prospect Jonathan Drouin had to work to get himself noticed.
Marchessault was quickly able to earn ice time on an injury-riddled Florida Panthers team at the beginning of the season—he's averaging 18:17 a game in Florida compared to just 12:05 during his 45 games with the Lightning in 2015-16. Marchessault has definitely made the most of his opportunity to sub for injured Jonathan Huberdeau on the Panthers' top line with Jaromir Jagr and Aleksander Barkov.
Through 49 games in bits of three previous seasons, Marchessault tallied eight goals and 19 points. He has matched that total in a little over a quarter season in Sunrise.
Marchessault has already given the Panthers their money's worth this season. Let's see where he lands on the depth chart now that Tom Rowe has supplanted Gerard Gallant behind the bench.
Patrick Maroon, Edmonton Oilers
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Age: 28
2016-17 Stats: 25 GP, 7-4-11, plus-4
Contract Info, per CapFriendly: Three-year contract with an AAV of $2 million
Why He Has Surprised: Sure, you could say that Connor McDavid is overachieving, with a six-point lead in the NHL scoring race at the tender age of 19. But c'mon—plenty of experts speculated that could happen, including Rob Vollman at NHL.com. McDavid's overachieving compared to your average hockey player, but he's just living up to the high expectations that have surrounded him for most of his life.
If you're looking for a member of the Edmonton Oilers who's punching well above his weight, your guy is Patrick Maroon. Drafted by the Philadelphia Flyers in the sixth round in 2007, Maroon overachieved as soon as he became an NHL regular with the Anaheim Ducks during the 2013-14 season after spending years in the minors.
Maroon's stock had dropped to the point that he was traded to Edmonton at the 2016 deadline in exchange for minor-leaguer Martin Gernat and a fourth-round draft pick—and the Ducks retained a quarter of his $2 million cap hit to get rid of him to boot.
Maroon clicked immediately in Edmonton, tallying eight goals and 14 points in 16 games down the stretch in 2015-16. He shuffles up and down the lineup as needed but averages a solid 15:25 per game and is on track to obliterate his previous career highs of 11 goals and 34 points.
Since arriving in Edmonton, Maroon has shown both hustle and muscle. He has been an important part of the Oilers' improved fortunes during the early part of the 2016-17 season.
Patrick Eaves, Dallas Stars
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Age: 32
2016-17 Stats: 24 GP, 9-8-17, minus-6
Contract Info, per CapFriendly: One-year contract with an AAV of $1 million
Why He Has Surprised: It's not often that you see a career journeyman have a breakout offensive season in his 12th year as a pro. The Ottawa Senators had high hopes for winger Patrick Eaves when they drafted him 29th overall in 2003, and he delivered in his rookie season, scoring 20 goals. But it was all downhill from there.
Eaves was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes in 2008, then dealt again to Boston in the summer of 2009. He had the last two years of his contract with a $1.4 million cap hit bought out without ever playing a game as a Bruin.
Eaves spent the next five seasons as a bottom-six forward with the Detroit Red Wings, topping out with 12 goals and 22 points in 65 games in 2009-10. Now in his third season with the Dallas Stars, he's playing top-line minutes with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin and is making the most of his opportunity—on pace for career highs of 30 goals and 58 points on a bargain one-year, $1 million contract.
If Eaves stays healthy and maintains his production pace, he'll be well positioned to hit the jackpot next summer as an unrestricted free agent.
Peter Budaj, Los Angeles Kings
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Age: 34
2016-17 Stats: 22 GP, 12-7-1, .912 save percentage, 2.15 goals-against average, 2 shutouts
Contract Info, per CapFriendly: One-year contract with an AAV of $600,000
Why He Has Surprised: Starter Jonathan Quick went down with a lower-body injury in the first period of the first game of the Los Angeles Kings' season. He was projected to miss about three months of action, which means he won't be back between the pipes until some time in January.
It was expected that the Kings would need to trade for an NHL-caliber goaltender to help carry the load with backup Jeff Zatkoff during Quick's absence, but Peter Budaj has made the most of his emergency recall from the AHL.
Budaj hasn't been an NHL regular since the 2013-14 season, when he was supplanted from his role as Carey Price's backup with the Montreal Canadiens by the upstart Dustin Tokarski. He landed with the Kings organization as a minor-leaguer in 2015-16, posted a 1.75 goals-against average and .932 save percentage and 42-14-4 record with the Ontario Reign and has continued his solid play now he's back in the bigs.
After his call-up, Budaj quickly overtook Zatkoff to become coach Darryl Sutter's goalie of choice. He has almost single-handedly helped keep the Kings in a playoff position despite the absence of their most important player.
If Budaj sticks around as backup once Quick returns to the lineup, the Kings may be serving up one of the most formidable goalie tandems in the league down the stretch and into the postseason.
Marian Hossa, Chicago Blackhawks
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Age: 37
2016-17 Stats: 24 GP, 12-6-18, plus-5
Contract Info, per CapFriendly: Eighth year of 12-year contract with an AAV of $5.275 million
Why He Has Surprised: Marian Hossa's back-diving 12-year contract was signed when he was 30 years old in 2009, under the terms of the NHL's last collective bargaining agreement from before the 2012 lockout. Once the salary-cap recapture rules were amended to punish teams with players on those types of contracts, it looked like Hossa would be an albatross for the Chicago Blackhawks long before his deal ran out.
So far, so good. The Hawks have won three Stanley Cups since bringing Hossa on board, and the soon-to-be 38-year-old has consistently been one of the NHL's best two-way wingers.
This season, Hossa has also rediscovered his scoring touch. He already has 12 goals, just one shy of his total from the entire 2015-16 season, and four of those have been game-winners for the resurgent Blackhawks. The ageless Slovak seems like he might have a few more good years left in him yet!
All stats courtesy of NHL.com.
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