NHL Power Rankings: B/R Experts' Week 6 Poll
In the early NHL season, no division has been more important to watch than the Metropolitan.
That's not to take anything away from other top clubs. The Chicago Blackhawks are riding high amid the ruins of the Central, while the perpetually rebuilding Edmonton Oilers are battling the San Jose Sharks—last year's Western Conference champions—for control of the Pacific. The Montreal Canadiens are running away with the Atlantic, though old rivals the Boston Bruins have started strongly too.
Only the Met can boast three obvious contenders, though. In addition to last season's top regular-season team (the Washington Capitals) and top playoff team (the Pittsburgh Penguins), the Metropolitan features a resurgent New York Rangers squad that so far has been the best of the three. That's even before we get into the red-hot New Jersey Devils, goalie-less Philadelphia Flyers and whatever's happened to the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Our panel gathered again this week to break down what's happening in hockey's most competitive division as well as the other three. Adrian Dater, Allan Mitchell, Lyle Richardson, Carol Schram and yours truly all registered our votes for this week's power rankings. Without delay, I'd like to present the results.
30-26: Calgary Flames-Colorado Avalanche
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30. Calgary Flames (last week: 28)
The Calgary Flames’ season was not off to a good start. Four consecutive losses haven't helped. There hasn’t even been a moral victory during the streak; Calgary allowed at least four goals and scored two or fewer in all four of those defeats. The only tiny bit of good news was that Johnny Gaudreau scored twice against the Dallas Stars on Thursday, an outing that may have suggested he’s finally going to break out of his slump.
29. Arizona Coyotes (last week: 29)
The Arizona Coyotes continued to solidify their position as one of the weakest teams in the NHL with a pair of losses this week; they’ve now lost three of their last four contests. Franchise cornerstone Oliver Ekman-Larsson also got some bad news, with the league announcing that he’d received his second citation for diving and, with it, a $2,000 fine.
On the bright side, Radim Vrbata continues to play well. He has points in four consecutive games.
28. Vancouver Canucks (last week: 30)
The Vancouver Canucks climbed out of the bottom slot this week, and there were some signs that this team has some life in it yet. A 5-3 win over the red-hot Rangers on Tuesday was a good sign, and Vancouver followed it up by knocking the Stars off in overtime Sunday. The summer’s big free-agent signing, Loui Eriksson, scored in each of those wins—his first two goals of the season.
27. New York Islanders (last week: 27)
The New York Islanders have just one win in the month of November and two in their last nine games, and even those victories came against teams (Vancouver and the Toronto Maple Leafs) that missed the playoffs last year. The underlying numbers suggest that New York is full value for its unimpressive record over this span; the team has fallen to 29th in the NHL by score-adjusted Corsi. It’s hard to imagine the wins coming unless they can figure out a way to stop losing the shots battle by such a lopsided margin.
Just for good measure, Andy Graziano of Sportsnet New York tweeted a report Sunday that defenceman Dennis Seidenberg—one of the club’s few bright spots—has suffered a broken jaw.
26. Colorado Avalanche (last week: 24)
Losses to Arizona and Boston bookended a disappointing 1-2-0 performance this week. That drops the Colorado Avalanche's home record to an ugly 3-4-0, exactly matching the team’s road performance. There was a glimmer of hope in Sunday’s loss to the Bruins, though. Starting goalie Semyon Varlamov hasn’t played well this season, but he turned aside 44 of the 45 shots that he faced in that game. It wasn’t enough for the win, but if he gets back to playing at the level he’s capable of, it will drive victories the rest of the way.
25-21: Buffalo Sabres-Los Angeles Kings
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25. Buffalo Sabres (last week: 19)
The Buffalo Sabres slide six spots in these rankings after losing all four games they played this week. All of those games were “four-point” affairs, with two coming against divisional rivals (the Ottawa Senators and Boston) and the other two a back-to-back set against the New Jersey Devils, who hold one of the two wild-card spots in the East. When Buffalo eventually emerges from its rebuild, these are exactly the kinds of games it will need to win.
24. Carolina Hurricanes (last week: 26)
It’s still early, but the Carolina Hurricanes have managed to dig themselves into a hole in the standings that's going to be difficult to emerge from. With just 12 points through 14 games, Carolina is already six losses under .500 and five points out of the final wild-card slot in the East. Saturday’s 5-1 win—which saw rookie Sebastian Aho score his first two goals of the year—was a good first step, but more is definitely needed.
23. Toronto Maple Leafs (last week: 13)
Tuesday’s 7-0 loss to the Los Angeles Kings was both the first time that Toronto had been shut out this year and also a tie for the most goals surrendered (the Leafs had previously allowed seven in a 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay on October 25). The club rebounded with a win over Philadelphia on Friday but lost to the Penguins on Saturday night.
Encouragingly, one of the big scapegoats from the L.A. game—defenceman Martin Marincin, who went minus-four in less than 16 minutes of ice time—was shown trust by the coaching staff and rebounded, collecting points in each of Toronto’s last two contests.
22. Dallas Stars (last week: 22)
October was rough on Dallas, and November isn’t looking any better. After an ugly 8-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday, the Stars rallied for back-to-back wins over Alberta’s NHL teams. Unfortunately, that effort was followed by a loss in Vancouver, ending that modest Dallas winning streak just as it started. A wave of injuries has devastated the team, forcing it to lean on depth players such as Lauri Korpikoski, who has three goals in three games in a top-line role.
21. Los Angeles Kings (last week: 15)
Tuesday was a high point for Los Angeles, which has struggled in both the goal-scoring and goal-prevention departments this season. Running up a 7-0 score against the Maple Leafs right after beating Calgary 5-0 was a reminder that the Kings still have some fight in them.
It was, however, only the first game of the week, and L.A. followed it up with losses in Montreal, Ottawa and Winnipeg to move to 1-2-1 over the first four games of a five-game road trip.
20-16: Florida Panthers-Minnesota Wild
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20. Florida Panthers (last week: 20)
The Florida Panthers aren’t in a great spot in this week’s power rankings, but our panel may have been a little too harsh on the team. Florida won two of three games last week to improve to 7-7-1 on the year, and there’s still precious little gap between second and eighth in the Atlantic Division. Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr and others are slumping, several players are on the shelf with injury and the shot metrics look really good. Don’t be surprised if this team shoots up the ranks in the coming weeks.
19. Detroit Red Wings (last week: 16)
A five-game losing streak took most of the shine off the Detroit Red Wings’ hot start, dropping them below .500, but they made some modest gains this week with two wins in three tries. Saturday’s 5-0 loss to Montreal was a setback, however. It also may have opened the door for Petr Mrazek to reclaim the starting goalie job that Jimmy Howard has been working so diligently to steal over the last few games.
18. Philadelphia Flyers (last week: 14)
Saturday’s 3-2 win over the Minnesota Wild was important for a number of reasons. First, it brought an end to a three-game losing streak for Philadelphia. Perhaps more importantly, it was Steve Mason’s second good game in three contests, as he stepped in and turned aside 19 of 20 shots faced after Michal Neuvirth left with an injury. The Flyers have had no help from their goalies this year, and with the team announcing that Neuvirth will miss four to six weeks, Mason is going to have to step up.
17. Winnipeg Jets (last week: 23)
It’s hard not to be impressed with Mark Scheifele these days. After a breakthrough 2015-16 campaign, he was thrown into the fire this season when fellow marquee centre Bryan Little was injured early. He played a critical role in the Jets’ 3-0-1 record this week, picking up points in the first three games and scoring the shootout winner in the fourth. With the Central looking weak early this season, there’s an opening for Winnipeg, and Scheifele’s performance will be absolutely critical.
16. Minnesota Wild (last week: 8)
November has been a tougher test for the Wild than October was, but one imagines the team was reasonably satisfied with its 2-2-0 performance over a four-game road trip. All of the games were close, and with five of their next six contests at home, Minnesota has a chance to consolidate its place near the top of the Central Division standings. Eric Staal had five points over the road trip and now has 12 in 13 games overall.
15-11: St. Louis Blues-Tampa Bay Lightning
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15. St. Louis Blues (last week: 9)
The St. Louis Blues fell out of the top 10 this week, and it isn’t our panel’s fault. After dropping a pair of back-to-back contests, St. Louis got lit up for eight goals by the Columbus Blue Jackets in a third straight loss on Saturday. Starting goalie Jake Allen has an ugly .896 save percentage on the season, and the decision to go with journeyman Carter Hutton (.900 save percentage) in the backup role leaves the coaches with little choice but to hope he turns things around.
14. Nashville Predators (last week: 25)
These are the Nashville Predators we’ve been waiting for. Nashville entered the year with a reputation as a legitimate contender but fell flat on its collective face out of the gate. Three wins later, and things are looking up, with the Preds just two points back of St. Louis for second place in the Central Division. James Neal has five goals in four games after recording just one in his first 10.
13. Anaheim Ducks (last week: 12)
After opening the year with a quartet of losses, the Anaheim Ducks have come pretty close to alternating victories and defeats, with no winning run lasting longer than two games and no multi-game losing streaks at all. This week’s 1-1-1 performance fit nicely into that overall pattern. Perhaps that will change once Corey Perry (scoreless in eight) and Ryan Getzlaf (scoreless in 10) inevitably break out of their slumps.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets (last week: 11)
It was, perhaps, not quite as impressive as last week’s 10-0 win over Montreal, but Saturday’s 8-4 defeat of the St. Louis Blues was a nice performance in its own right and moves the Jackets to 4-1-1 over the month of November. Nick Foligno had three-point outings in both of those titanic wins, and with 16 points in 13 games, he looks to have recovered from his disastrous 2015-16 campaign.
11. Tampa Bay Lightning (last week: 6)
The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of three teams to fall outside the top 10 this week, though the dip here was a little less pronounced than it was in the cases of the Blues or the Wild. Tampa Bay is a well-built team with high-end talent and depth at every position, but so far the club’s performance has not matched the talent it has on paper. The Lightning's record has been mediocre as well. One positive sign is that Ben Bishop seems to be coming around; the veteran goalie now has at least a .920 save percentage in five of his last seven starts.
10. Ottawa Senators
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Record: 9-5-1, 19 points
Last week: 10
Big Picture
The Senators are off to a good start to the season, but the Atlantic is highly competitive, and only the Montreal Canadiens have bought themselves any breathing space. Ottawa sits third in the division and has two-point leads on Tampa Bay and Detroit and four-point leads on Florida and Toronto. The club will need to get better at winning the territorial battle if it hopes to hang on to a playoff berth; the Sens are in the bottom 20 percent of the league by score-adjusted Corsi.
By the Numbers
Just call it Guy Boucher hockey. Ottawa has allowed just 35 goals, one of the best totals in the East. Unfortunately, the team has only scored 35 goals, which is one of the worst totals in the conference. Success or failure this season is likely to come down to the team’s record in one-goal games.
9. Boston Bruins
6 of 14
Record: 10-6-0, 20 points
Last week: 18
Big Picture
It was a busy week for Boston—and a highly successful one. The Bruins won four of the five games they played, with the lone exception being a one-goal loss to the juggernaut in Montreal. That pushed the team into second place in the Atlantic, and with most of the team’s big-name offensive players still looking to break out, there’s reason to think that Boston hasn’t reached its full potential yet.
By the Numbers
Tuukka Rask has been unbelievably good. He’s now 10-1-0 on the year, has three shutouts and has held the opposition to one goal or under in seven of his 11 games played. The Bruins are 0-5-0 without him in net.
8. Edmonton Oilers
7 of 14
Record: 9-6-1, 19 points
Last week: 7
Big Picture
After a hot start, the Edmonton Oilers have cooled considerably. Sunday’s loss to the Rangers was the third in a row for the club, which has an ugly 2-5-1 record over its last eight games. Edmonton still controls the Pacific Division, but its lead on San Jose has shrunk to just a single point. With Vancouver, Calgary and Arizona all off to terrible starts, however, the Oilers would have to sink the rest of the way to fall into the division's cellar.
By the Numbers
Connor McDavid has gone eight games without a goal after scoring five in his first eight contests. He does, however, have seven assists over that span.
7. San Jose Sharks
8 of 14
Record: 9-6-0, 18 points
Last week: 21
Big Picture
There were some wild swings in the power rankings this week, and winning three straight games gave the San Jose Sharks the biggest positive bounce of any team on this list. It was a much-needed response after last week’s ugliness, and the fact those wins came on the road against good teams (Washington, Florida and Tampa Bay) shows what this Sharks team can do. This is a team in decent shape to win the Pacific Division.
By the Numbers
This team is going to go exactly as far as Martin Jones can take it. San Jose’s No. 1 goalie has started 14 of the team’s 15 games. He looked good this week, allowing just three goals in three wins, and he has a respectable .913 save percentage. His backup, the 27-year-old rookie Aaron Dell, got his lone start in a back-to-back situation.
6. New Jersey Devils
9 of 14
Record: 8-3-3, 19 points
Last week: 17
Big Picture
Like San Jose, New Jersey surged this week, winning all three of its games and pushing its overall winning streak to four games, half of its season total. Unlike the Sharks, the Devils recorded those wins against lower-tier teams, playing Carolina and Buffalo twice each. All of those points count, but it’s still difficult to put New Jersey in the same tier as the other top teams in the Met (the Rangers, Capitals and Penguins).
By the Numbers
Taylor Hall was used extensively in the Devils’ three wins this week, playing 25:54 against Carolina on Tuesday and hovering around the 22-minute mark in the two Buffalo games. He picked up four points, moving him to 12 in 14 contests overall. He’s clearly the primary offensive driver for the team.
5. Washington Capitals
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5. Washington Capitals
Record: 9-4-1, 19 points
Last week: 2
Big Picture
It wasn’t a particularly good week for the Caps despite a hard-fought 3-2 overtime win against Chicago. That win was followed by a flight to Carolina, and perhaps unsurprisingly, Washington struggled to generate much in a 5-1 loss there. The other game was a shutout loss to San Jose. Still, these are speed bumps. The Capitals are still close on the heels of the Rangers and Penguins, the two other elite teams in the Met.
By the Numbers
Evgeny Kuznetsov scored in that 5-1 defeat. It was his first point in five games and first goal in 10. He’s now tied for second in goals among regular Washington centres with Lars Eller and one ahead of Nicklas Backstrom. Fourth-liner Jay Beagle, who scored twice against Chicago, leads the team’s centres with three goals.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
11 of 14
Record: 10-3-2, 22 points
Last week: 3
Big Picture
The defending Stanley Cup champions just keep on rolling. The Penguins are 4-1-1 in November and holding their own in the ultra-competitive Metropolitan despite starting the month with a tough California road trip. The next 10 days should be fascinating, as Pittsburgh plays the Capitals once and the Rangers twice; those games are all four-point contests.
By the Numbers
What else is there to say about Sidney Crosby? He scored in two of three games this week and has recorded at least one goal in seven of the nine contests he’s played since coming back from injury. He leads Pittsburgh with 10 goals, a total that puts him one back of NHL leader Patrik Laine.
3. Chicago Blackhawks
12 of 14
Record: 11-3-2, 24 points
Last week: 4
Big Picture
The Blackhawks suffered their first loss of November this week, a 3-2 overtime decision against Washington. The loss bumped them down to 6-0-1 on the month, including a win over Montreal on Sunday. They have a six-point lead on Winnipeg in the race for the Central Division. Potential powerhouses St. Louis, Nashville and Dallas are all off to mediocre starts, which only serves to underline how well Chicago has played in the early going.
By the Numbers
Marian Hossa has scored in three straight contests and has seven goals in his last eight games overall. Not only has that helped him to a point-per-game pace early on, but with eight goals on the year, he’s just five back of his total for all of last season. If his 22.2 shooting percentage were to last all year, it would be a career high and double his career-average rate.
2. New York Rangers
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Record: 12-4-0, 24 points
Last week: 1
Big Picture
Entering the season, the consensus view of the Metropolitan Division was that it would be a dogfight between Pittsburgh and Washington for first place. The Rangers have interjected themselves into that contest and have a two-point lead on the Pens and a five-point lead on the Capitals (though both clubs have games in hand). In most divisions, New York would be running away with things, but in this one, they just have an early lead in a three-way race that should go all year.
By the Numbers
New York’s plus-29 goal differential is far and away the best in the game of hockey. Even if we knock Montreal’s 10-0 loss to the Jackets off their record, the second-ranked Canadiens (plus-19) would only be tied with the Rangers for first place. Only five teams in the league are already in the black by 10 or more goals.
1. Montreal Canadiens
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Record: 13-2-1, 27 points
Last week: 5
Big Picture
Any coach would have been happy with the Canadiens' response after the team was torched 10-0 by Columbus. Montreal reeled off four straight wins, and while it lost on Sunday to the Blackhawks by a single goal in the second half of a back-to-back, that doesn’t diminish the Canadiens' achievement. With a seven-point lead on the Bruins for supremacy in the Atlantic, it would seem that only another injury to Carey Price could possibly stand between the Habs and a successful season.
By the Numbers
When talking about Corsi, it’s important to take score effects into account. Teams with the lead tend to play more conservatively, while trailing teams tend to play more aggressively. For a team like Montreal, which has spent a lot of time in the lead, that drags down the shot metrics. If we adjust for score, the Canadiens are the 10th-best team in the NHL by Corsi.
Add that to Price (his .957 save percentage shouldn’t last, but something in the .930 range is totally possible), and there’s no reason for an analytics guy to say that this team can’t contend if it maintains those numbers.
Statistics used her courtesy of Hockey Reference and Puck on Net.
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