Stock Watch for the Top Sophomores in the NHL in 2016-17
The 2015 NHL draft was highly anticipated for two impact players—Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. With those two prospects and a large group of 2014 selections who took an extra year to arrive, the 2015-16 rookie crop has a lot of talent and potential.
There were some surprising names among top rookies in 2015-16, including Chicago Blackhawks winger Artemi Panarin and Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. How are these players doing in their second years? Are they trending in the right direction? Are they avoiding injuries?
Here is a glance at the top 2015-16 rookies early in their sophomore seasons.
10. Anthony Duclair, LW, Arizona Coyotes
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Rookie Performance: Anthony Duclair of the Arizona Coyotes finished No. 7 in rookie scoring and No. 10 in voting for the Calder Trophy.
Sophomore Expectations: Duclair scored 20 goals as a rookie, an impressive total. He was also productive on the power play, so 50 points and a slight bump in goals should have been reachable this season.
Stock Watch: His stock is down. Duclair has struggled, posting only three points in the first 12 games of the season. His playing time is also down about one minute per game, suggesting the Arizona coaching staff may have found other options for specific game states. Duclair is a talented player, so betting on recovery is wise. There is some danger for him, though, and he will need to re-establish himself as a top option.
9. Sam Reinhart, C, Buffalo Sabres
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Rookie Performance: Sam Reinhart of the Buffalo Sabres finished No. 8 in rookie scoring and No. 9 in voting for the Calder Trophy.
Sophomore Expectations: Reinhart's offensive totals were solid, but he needs to take another step in order to be an impact forward. The expectation for 2016-17 involved more offense than he delivered as a rookie.
Stock Watch: His stock is flat. Reinhart has six points in 12 games, which is within range of one year ago—but there has been no step forward. Buffalo has suffered injuries, and a hot streak will have Reinhart ahead of last year, but his stock has not moved so far this season.
8. Colton Parayko, D, St. Louis Blues
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Rookie Performance: Colton Parayko of the St. Louis Blues posted a strong rookie season and finished No. 8 in Calder Trophy voting.
Sophomore Expectations: Parayko posted 33 points as a rookie defenseman, playing over 19 minutes a night. As a two-way player, reasonable expectations included posting a strong point total and increased playing time.
Stock Watch: His stock is up. Parayko is playing more—over 21 minutes so far this year—but his offense has lagged slightly. The nature of his position is that Parayko could deliver less offense while still delivering more value, and that appears to be the case early in the 2016-17 season.
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7. John Gibson, G, Anaheim Ducks
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Rookie Performance: John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks finished No. 7 in Calder Trophy voting in 2015-16. He played in 40 games and had a goals-against average of 2.07 and a .920 save percentage.
Sophomore Expectations: The Ducks cleared the way for Gibson to take over the No. 1 job, and that was the expectation of the young goaltender.
Stock Watch: His stock is down. Gibson's goals-against average is up, his save percentage is down and the club is struggling to win games. It is difficult to separate goalie from team, but the overall performance is less than expected, and Gibson will need to improve his numbers in order to hang on to the No. 1 job.
6. Max Domi, LW, Arizona Coyotes
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Rookie Performance: Max Domi of the Arizona Coyotes had a strong rookie year, finishing No. 6 in Calder Trophy voting and No. 3 in rookie scoring.
Sophomore Expectations: Domi had a substantial impact offensively at even strength and on the power play, where he scored three goals and 15 points. More of the same was expected, with a higher output and more minutes in his second year.
Stock Watch: His stock is up, as his 10 points in 12 games represent a handsome increase in scoring. His shooting percentage is poor so far; should that improve, Domi's goal total will increase. The Coyotes appear to have a scoring star on their hands.
5. Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings
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Rookie Performance: Dylan Larkin of the Detroit Red Wings finished No. 5 in Calder Trophy voting and No. 6 in scoring among rookies.
Sophomore Expectations: Larkin posted a strong rookie season, especially considering his playing time—he averaged less than 17 minutes a night—and the fact that only five of his 45 points were on the power play. Expectations for his second season involved more playing time and more impact on the power play.
Stock Watch: Larkin's stock is flat, as his playing time and power-play performance are both tracking at about the same rate as last season. The Red Wings are no longer the powerhouse team of the past, and they need Larkin and other young players to step up this season. It is early in the year, and Larkin is an outstanding talent, but there is work to be done—as reflected in the current conference standings.
4. Jack Eichel, C, Buffalo Sabres
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Rookie Performance: Jack Eichel of the Buffalo Sabres posted a strong rookie season, finishing No. 4 in Calder Trophy voting and No. 2 in overall points.
Sophomore Expectations: Eichel's 56 points in 82 games were an indication of his terrific season—especially impressive considering he was a teenager. Sabres fans should have expected a healthy performance spike, perhaps approaching a point per game, in his second year.
Stock Watch: Eichel's stock is down due to an incident during training camp. He was injured early in training camp, as reported by Amalie Benjamin of NHL.com. He is projected to miss eight important weeks with a high ankle sprain—and he could be less than 100 percent upon return. Eichel's long-term future remains bright, but this season is off to an unfortunate start.
3. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Philadelphia Flyers
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Rookie Performance: Shayne Gostisbehere of the Philadelphia Flyers finished No. 2 in Calder Trophy voting and led rookie defensemen in scoring during 2015-16.
Sophomore Expectations: Gostisbehere was not a high draft pick and did not carry enormous expectations as a rookie. That all changed with his dynamic rookie campaign, and the expectation entering 2016-17 was more of the same—including points and playing time.
Stock Watch: Gostisbehere's stock is up. He is on pace to repeat his offensive performance and is playing about 90 seconds more per game. He is also improving in possession—from 50 percent a year ago to 53 percent early this season. Although he was not a famous prospect entering his rookie year, Gostisbehere delivered last season and is duplicating his performance as a sophomore.
2. Artemi Panarin, LW, Chicago Blackhawks
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Rookie Performance: Artemi Panarin of the Chicago Blackhawks won the rookie scoring title and the Calder Trophy in 2015-16.
Sophomore Expectations: Among last season's rookies, no player had a higher mountain to climb in terms of points. If he scored 77 points in 80 games as a rookie, the expectations for his sophomore season would have to be at least a point per game.
Stock Watch: His stock is up, with the young winger delivering on a difficult chore. Panarin has 13 points in the first 13 games and is inside the top 20 in scoring overall early in the season. His stock is up because Chicago badly needed him to perform at a high level on the team's top line. Panarin, Artem Anisimov and Patrick Kane have delivered in possession and on the scoreboard this year.
1. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers
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Rookie Performance: Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers was an outstanding rookie—when he was in the lineup. Playing only 45 games, he scored 48 points and gave NHL fans an idea of his breathtaking talent. He would eventually finish No. 4 in rookie scoring and No. 3 in voting for the Calder Trophy.
Sophomore Expectations: McDavid was expected to inspire a turn for the better for the Oilers, leading the offense as captain of the team. Individual success remained important, but for a fanbase that has not seen the playoffs since 2006, pushing toward the postseason is the goal.
Stock Watch: Edmonton is at the top of the Pacific Division and enjoying strong results. McDavid is leading the team in scoring and providing leadership for an emerging club. His stock is way up, and the Oilers are finally turning in the right direction in a big way.
All advanced stats courtesy of Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.
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