
Bold Predictions for the 2016-17 NHL Season
With the 2016-17 NHL season just around the corner, it is a good time to make predictions. The fun part of looking into the future is arguing over preseason perceptions and prevailing wisdom—and the bad part is reviewing those predictions later in the year.
There have been some massive roster changes and shifts in the balance of power in both conferences. In the end, pinpointing Stanley Cup champions and award winners at this time of year is foolish—but it's fun and a conversation starter.
You are about to see which teams will surprise everyone and make the playoffs and find out some award winners and the eventual Stanley Cup champion for 2017. Here are nine bold and potentially foolish predictions for the NHL season to come.
Bruins, Hurricanes and Canadiens Crash the Eastern Conference Playoff Party
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The Boston Bruins missed the playoffs a year ago despite having a goal differential of plus-10, and that is a difficult thing to do. The club was the only team in the NHL with a positive goal differential to miss the playoffs, but it has made several changes in roster makeup that should help the cause.
David Backes was the big addition over the summer, and his flexibility—he is a good center and winger—means the Bruins can load up two lines or attempt to run with three scoring lines. The club also added a more capable backup goalie in Anton Khudobin, and it has better defensive depth. Boston making the playoffs this season is a solid bet.
The Carolina Hurricanes are taking the patient approach to rebuilding, and this is the year fans may see some extra games after the regular campaign. The defensive group is young and blossoming, with Noah Hanifin, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce joining Justin Faulk as big factors for the coming season and the future. This young defense is strong in terms of possession, per Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, and should push the team to a playoff spot by season's end.
The Montreal Canadiens stumbled badly last year, missing the last wild-card spot by 14 points. In truth, the big problem came in the health of goalie Carey Price, who should be fine this year. Montreal made a major deal over the summer, trading P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber. The club also added KHL scoring star Alexander Radulov and center Andrew Shaw. Canadiens fans will find a team that suits coach Michel Therrien, and the playoffs are likely—as long as Price stays healthy.
Flames Make It Back to the Western Conference Postseason
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The Calgary Flames missed the playoffs in 2015-16, mostly due to goaltending issues. Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com shows the team had the worst even-strength save percentage in the NHL a year ago, and the team moved quickly to address the position. Bringing in Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson for this season gives the team a chance to make sure Jon Gillies is the goalie of the future, and it now has options at the trade deadline if things don't work out as planned.
The key for the Flames will be the defense, led by T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton. Calgary has an enormous advantage over most NHL teams in that the transition game allows for counter-strike offense—and much of that comes from effective passing from the defenders.
Calgary has some other issues—signing Johnny Gaudreau is a big item—but the team has done a lot of good work at the draft table and maintained a solid defensive group. Adding the veteran goalies should mean making the playoffs for the Flames next spring.
Dallas Stars Miss the Playoffs in a Shocker
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The Dallas Stars are a fascinating team, and this season should be interesting for NHL fans. The club's 265 goals led the league, but the goaltending proved to be the team's downfall. Veterans Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi were among the league's poorest goalies in terms of save percentage. Among goaltenders who played 30 or more games in 2015-16, Lehtonen and Niemi were No. 37 and No. 39, respectively, in save percentage.
Dallas chose not to pull the trigger on a deal and will run with the veteran tandem again this coming season. Part of the reason may be the cost to trade out one of the two, but keeping both uses up $10.4 million in cap dollars.
The Stars are going to be running several new defensemen in their rotation this season, with Alex Goligoski and Jason Demers no longer in the organization. Both of those men logged over 20 minutes per night last year, so newcomer Dan Hamhuis is going to be busy, and younger defensemen such as Jamie Oleksiak will get chances to establish themselves.
It should make for high-scoring, 1980s-style hockey in Dallas, but the playoffs could be a distant bell. If the young defensemen develop quickly and the veteran goalies recover their performances, there is some hope for a playoff spot. The decision to run with the current goaltending tandem—while bringing along inexperienced defensemen—is a curious one and could cost the team the playoffs.
Willie Desjardins of the Vancouver Canucks Is the First Coach Fired
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The Vancouver Canucks missed the playoffs in 2015-16, the second time in three seasons the team found itself on the outside looking in. The big addition this summer—winger Loui Eriksson—gives the team a substantial boost, but the roster is aging in important areas and is unlikely to contend for a playoff spot.
The Canucks have three important roster players over 35—Daniel and Henrik Sedin and goalie Ryan Miller—and a large number of young players in the early stages of their careers. The group of players who can be considered veterans with plenty of productive seasons left is small compared to other teams, and that is the issue with Vancouver this season.
Ownership and management have established they are all-in for the playoffs—not trading away veterans and signing Eriksson tells us there is no commitment to a rebuild. Fans in Vancouver still remember the magical run in 2011 and are eager to get back to the Stanley Cup Final.
Something has to give, and in most cases, that involves the head coach. It has little to do with the job Willie Desjardins is doing; rather, the fact that firing 23 players at once is impossible. The Canucks will be the first team to change coaches this season.
Connor McDavid Hits 90 Points
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Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers is the most highly touted player to enter the league since Sidney Crosby a decade ago. An injury during his rookie year robbed fans and the Oilers of an opportunity to see his true impact, but we should see something spectacular in the 2016-17 season.
McDavid posted 48 points in 45 games, but he ranked among the NHL's best in terms of points per 60. As Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com shows, he narrowly missed leading the NHL in even-strength points per 60 and finished No. 5 in power-play points per 60.
The only thing that kept McDavid from posting an enormous rookie campaign was injury, and with good health this year, he should deliver an outstanding season. It is not out of the question to suggest he reaches 90 points, and there's an outside chance of him leading the NHL in points during his second season.
Auston Matthews Wins the Calder Trophy
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Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs is ideally situated to contend for the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie.
He played pro hockey—and flourished—last season, posting 46 points in 36 Swiss League games. Matthews also performed well at the World Juniors, the World Championships and the World Cup of Hockey.
Matthews is fortunate in that he is NHL-ready and was drafted by a team that lacks the kind of depth that would prevent him from playing in his rookie year. Chances are that he will get substantial minutes at even strength and some power-play time, helping the offense and showcasing his overall ability.
He probably gets a major push based on merit because he will be one of Toronto's best forwards on opening night. If he meshes well with his linemates and head coach Mike Babcock puts him in a position to succeed, Matthews has an outstanding chance to win the Calder Trophy in 2016-17.
Carey Price Wins the Vezina Trophy
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Carey Price is the best goalie in the game, but he was robbed of winning hardware by injury last season. In 2014-15—his last healthy year—Price won four awards, including the Vezina Trophy and the Hart Trophy. Dan Rosen had the story for NHL.com in June 2015.
In 2014-15, with Price healthy, the Montreal Canadiens tied for the fewest goals against in the NHL with an outstanding total of 189. Last year, with Price out for much of the year, Montreal allowed 236 goals—an increase of 47 goals—and finished No. 21 overall.
There were other reasons for Montreal's fall from contention, but the return of Price gives the club a much better outlook for 2016-17. Expect a return to the playoffs and more awards for the game's best goalie.
Sidney Crosby Wins the Scoring Title
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Sidney Crosby won the scoring title in 2007 and 2014 and has an excellent chance to win it again in 2016-17. One of the main reasons for optimism is the quality and depth of the Pittsburgh Penguins roster for the coming year.
Crosby played most often with Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz at even strength last year and also got a lot done with Conor Sheary—especially in the playoffs. The quality of the roster should allow Pittsburgh to mix and match depending on who has chemistry with Crosby—and that has been a challenge at times.
The other big item was on display during the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Penguins can ice three scoring lines—similar to the Tampa Bay Lightning in recent seasons—and that should give all three trios chances to work against weaker opposition.
Pittsburgh found the formula last year and rode it all the way to a championship. Crosby finished No. 3 in scoring a year ago and has a great chance to secure his third title in 2016-17.
Tampa Bay Lightning Win the Stanley Cup
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The Tampa Bay Lightning have had a great deal of playoff success in the last two seasons, making the Stanley Cup final in 2015 and the third round of the playoffs this past spring. Injuries and bad luck have impacted the Lightning, but the team's window of opportunity remains open, and this could be the year Stanley returns to Florida.
The Lightning have been able to run three scoring lines—giving the team a massive advantage—for most of the last two years. Injuries impacted that ability in the playoffs, and there was a concern about losing Steven Stamkos to free agency. Over the summer, general manager Steve Yzerman got a contract done with Stamkos and signed a few other free agents who are considered major contributors.
Tampa Bay is loaded and can move goalie Ben Bishop during the season if the need arises. Backup goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is a bona fide No. 1 in waiting, and that move could come sooner rather than later. The Lightning need to make cap room to get Nikita Kucherov under contract for 2016-17.
A lot can change over a long season, but there is no team in the NHL with more quality, range and depth for 2016-17. The Tampa Bay Lightning are in a terrific spot to win the Stanley Cup for the second time in franchise history.
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