Lightning vs. Red Wings: Preview and Prediction for 2016 NHL Playoffs Matchup
For the second straight season, the Atlantic Division's No. 2 seed Tampa Bay Lightning will face off against the No. 3 Detroit Red Wings in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
In 2014-15, Petr Mrazek was brilliant in net for Detroit, recording two shutouts, but the Lightning's Ben Bishop posted his first shutout of the playoffs in the deciding Game 7 to earn Tampa Bay the series win and allow his team to set its course for the Stanley Cup Final.
Will the result be the same this year? Tampa Bay's regular-season record of 46-31-5 for 97 points is 11 points below last season's franchise-record mark while Detroit dropped from 100 points in 2014-15 to a 41-30-11 record for 93 points this year. It's had to imagine a more tightly contested series than what we saw last season, but the margin between the teams in the standings looks even narrower this year.
Here's a look at the lay of the land before the action gets underway on April 13.
Regular-Season Recap
1 of 9
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning came into 2015-16 after setting franchise records with 50 wins and 108 points in the previous regular season and reaching the Stanley Cup Final. After defeating the New York Rangers in seven games to win the Eastern Conference, the Lightning lasted six games in the Stanley Cup Final against the Chicago Blackhawks.
Named the NHL's general manager of the year at the league's annual award ceremony in June of 2015, Steve Yzerman chose not to tinker with the key parts of his winning lineup during the offseason, but health issues wreaked havoc on the roster throughout the season.
The trend began when backup goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was diagnosed with a blood clot in early September and ended up missing the first month of the regular season. Other key players to miss significant time included forwards Cedric Paquette (26 games), Ondrej Palat (20 games), Tyler Johnson (13 games) and Ryan Callahan (nine games).
Over the course of the season, the Lightning were also faced with two major distractions. Captain Steven Stamkos was on the road to become an unrestricted free agent and had not signed a contract extension. And the team's first-round draft pick from 2013, Jonathan Drouin, balked at being assigned to the AHL's Syracuse Crunch despite having struggled with injuries and other issues throughout the first three months of the season.
It was speculated that Stamkos and Drouin would be moved at the March trade deadline, but when the dust had settled, both players remained Lightning property. The club suspended Drouin in January, then reinstated and re-assigned him to the Crunch in late March before recalling him for the last two games of the regular season. Meanwhile, the team announced on April 2, per Mike Johnston of Sportsnet, that Stamkos would be sidelined for one to three months after having surgery to deal with blood clots in his arm.
After a tumultuous regular season, the Lightning finished 12 points below their record from 2014-15 but still ended the year in second place in the Atlantic Division.
Detroit Red Wings
Another year, another chance to squeak into the playoffs.
On the second-to-last day of the 2015-16 season, the Detroit Red Wings needed an Ottawa Senators win over the Boston Bruins in order to secure the franchise's 25th consecutive trip to the postseason—the longest active streak among all major North American sports.
The Red Wings spent the year in transition after head coach Mike Babcock headed to the Toronto Maple Leafs following 10 years and one Stanley Cup in Motor City. Promoted from the AHL Grand Rapids Griffins, new coach Jeff Blashill guided Detroit to its second straight third-place finish in the Atlantic Division, though the team's 41-30-11 record led to a seven-point drop from 100 points down to 93.
Highlights for Detroit this season included the emergence of 19-year-old rookie center Dylan Larkin and the continued growth of 24-year-old goaltender Mrazek, who posted a career-high 27 wins in 54 games before faltering late in the season.
Schedule and TV Info
2 of 9
Game 1
Wednesday, April 13
7 p.m. ET
Detroit at Tampa Bay
NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 2
Friday, April 15
7 p.m. ET
Detroit at Tampa Bay
CNBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 3
Sunday, April 17
7 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay at Detroit
CNBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 4
Tuesday, April 19
7 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay at Detroit
NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 5*
Thursday, April 21
TBD
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Television TBD
Game 6*
Sunday, April 24
TBD
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Television TBD
Game 7*
Tuesday, April 26
TBD
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Television TBD
*If necessary
Key Storylines
3 of 9
Can the Lightning Break the Runner-Up Curse?
The last time a team successfully used a trip to the Stanley Cup Final as a tune-up for a championship the next season was when the Pittsburgh Penguins fell to Detroit in 2007-08 before turning the tables the following year.
Since that time, the only conference champion to even get back to the third round the following season was the 2014 New York Rangers—who were knocked out by the Lightning last year.
After edging Detroit in the first round last season, Tampa Bay got on a roll. Will experience help the Lightning become the first back-to-back Eastern Conference champions in seven years?
Big-League Playoff Experience
Lightning head coach Jon Cooper and Red Wings counterpart Blashill have followed similar career paths. Cooper led Tampa Bay's then-AHL affiliate, the Norfolk Admirals, to the Calder Cup in 2011-12 before moving up to the Lightning after the team dismissed Guy Boucher in March 2013.
Blashill, 42, is six years younger than Cooper. He served as Mike Babcock's assistant with the Red Wings during 2011-12, then went on to lead Detroit's AHL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Griffins, to the Calder Cup in his first season with the team in 2012-13. After three seasons in Grand Rapids, Michigan, he was promoted after Babcock's departure last summer.
In his first go-round in the Stanley Cup playoffs in 2013-14, Cooper's Lightning were swept by the Montreal Canadiens in a tactical first-round series. Will Blashill suffer a similar fate during his first turn running an NHL bench in a best-of-seven series?
Can the Triplets Reignite?
Tampa Bay's scoring during their 2015 playoff run was fueled by their Triplets line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat.
Johnson led the way against Detroit, posting six goals and an assist in the first-round series. Kucherov tallied four assists, and Palat chipped in a goal and two assists.
The Triplets haven't played together much this season, and Johnson's status is uncertain after he left the Lightning's last game of the season after taking a heavy hit into the boards.
Lightning fans will be hoping Johnson is well enough to play and that he can reignite his chemistry with his old linemates when the series gets underway.
Players to Watch
4 of 9
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Red Wings
It's now confirmed, per Mitch Albom of the Detroit Free Press, that the 37-year-old Pavel Datsyuk intends to return to his native Russia after the NHL playoffs are over.
Drafted in the sixth round by the Red Wings in 1998, the Magic Man has played 14 seasons in Detroit and won two Stanley Cups, in 2002 and 2008.
After missing the early part of the year as a result of offseason ankle surgery, Datysuk finished second in Red Wings scoring in 2015-16 with 16-33-49 in 66 games played.
Detroit will need Datsyuk to dazzle like the old days if he hopes to make the most of his last NHL playoff run.
Jonathan Drouin, Tampa Bay Lightning
The seeds of discontent between Drouin and his coach were sown during last year's playoffs, when Drouin appeared in just one of the Lightning's first-round games against the Red Wings.
Drouin's only appearance came in Game 4 in Detroit, with the Lightning already trailing the series by a 2-1 margin. In just 8:42 of ice time, Drouin took a penalty and was on the ice for both goals against in Tampa Bay's 3-2 overtime win. After that inauspicious debut, he didn't see game action again until Game 3 of Tampa Bay's second-round series against Montreal and finished his year pointless in six playoff outings.
Thanks to Stamkos' health issues, Drouin could play a much more important offensive role for the Lightning this time around. The 21-year-old scored in both his games after his late-season recall from Syracuse. It remains to be seen whether Cooper will have enough faith to feed him minutes that'll give him the opportunity to excel in the postseason.
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings
How will Detroit's super rookie handle his first taste of NHL playoff competition?
At just 19 years of age, Larkin stepped straight out of the college ranks and onto Detroit's first line to start the season. He turned heads with 3-5-8 and a plus-nine against top competition in 11 games in October and continued to dazzle through the first half of the season.
But after setting a new record as the NHL's fastest skater at the All-Star Game in January, Larkin's game has tapered off. Since February 1, he went 8-4-12 and was a minus-13 in the Red Wings' last 32 regular-season games.
If the Red Wings hope to advance, they'll need Larkin to find the extra gear that ignites his 200-foot game once the playoffs begin.
Goaltender Breakdown
5 of 9
Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning
For the second straight year, workhorse goaltender Ben Bishop delivered a performance worthy of a Vezina Trophy nomination for the Lightning. Among goaltenders with at least 25 games played, Bishop finished the season ranked first in goals-against average (2.06), second in save percentage (.926) and tied for second with six shutouts.
Bishop's experience from last season's Stanley Cup run with the Lightning should prove to be a valuable asset for his team in this year's playoffs.
Jimmy Howard / Petr Mrazek, Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings are set to make their 25th consecutive playoff appearance. Lately, goaltending controversies have been part and parcel of that playoff package.
Last season, upstart Mrazek played all but one period of the Wings' seven-game first-round loss to the Lightning, recording two shutouts. The year before, Jimmy Howard and Jonas Gustavsson shared the net as the Wings fell to the Boston Bruins in five games.
We have to go back to 2012-13 to see the last time Howard was an uncontested playoff starter. He played every minute that year, as the Red Wings upset the Anaheim Ducks in the first round before falling in seven games to the Chicago Blackhawks.
After losing his starting job to Mrazek earlier in the season, Howard was Detroit's No. 1 guy down the stretch, posting a 6-4-0 record as he started 10 of the Wings' last 12 games to help secure that playoff spot.
But Howard lost his last two starts of the year. Does that leave the door open for Mrazek to step back in and try for an encore performance of last season's heroics against the Lightning?
Biggest Mismatch: The Injured List
6 of 9
Tampa Bay's statistical edge over Detroit going into this series will be strongly tested by the team's injured list.
Heading into the playoffs, the Red Wings are missing only two regulars according to TSN, and both have been out for a while. Johan Franzen played just two games in October before going on injured reserve with concussion-like symptoms, and Drew Miller iced his season in January after knee surgery. Otherwise, Detroit is healthy—at least as healthy as a team can be at playoff time.
By contrast, the Lightning have been adding names to their injured list almost daily. The run of bad luck began when defenseman Anton Stralman broke his leg in late March. That was followed by the news of Stamkos' blood clot. Since then, Victor Hedman, Callahan, Kucherov and Johnson have all been sidelined with ailments that are being called day-to-day.
Injury lists sometimes get exaggerated during the late stages of the regular season as teams opt to try to rest their top players and allow them to heal up before the playoff grind begins. It's tough to know who's really hurt and who's just enjoying a little relaxation.
Detroit's chances of advancing are improved considerably if a few of those Lightning injuries keep players out of the lineup or prevent them from performing at their best.
The Lightning Will Win If Ben Bishop Shuts the Door
7 of 9
Last season, the Tampa Bay Lightning went into the playoffs short on experience but boasting a balanced lineup that matched up well against any team on offense, defense and in net.
This year, the Lightning will only go as far as goaltender Bishop can take them.
With all the team's injury issues, Tampa Bay is not exactly heading into the playoffs on a hot streak. The team is just 3-5-0 in its last eight games and wrapped up the regular season with a discouraging 5-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens.
Often, teams that stumble into the playoffs need some time to find their footing. If Bishop can shut the door on the offensively challenged Red Wings, he could buy the Lightning the time that they need to find their swagger and reassert themselves as the NHL's defending Eastern Conference champions.
The Red Wings Will Win If They Can Exploit Tampa Bay's Injuries
8 of 9
The Red Wings backed into the postseason with a loss to the New York Rangers in their last game of the year, but the fact Detroit has already been in playoff mode for several weeks should help the team's mindset now the real fun is beginning.
Detroit finished the season ranked just 23rd on offense (2.55 goals-per-game average), but their power play has been solid at 18.8 percent. The team also boasts an attack that can come from just about anywhere—the Lightning won't be able to key on shutting down just one player or one line.
With Stralman missing and Hedman also potentially banged up, it may not be as tough as usual for the Wings' creative forwards to get quality shots and crash the crease in front of Bishop.
Prediction: Lightning in 7
9 of 9
There was little to choose between the Lightning and the Red Wings in last year's first round. This season, under these circumstances, the gap between the two teams appears to be even narrower.
Injuries could derail the Lightning, but Detroit's topsy-turvy goaltending situation and Blashill's lack of Stanley Cup playoff experience are two big challenges the Red Wings will need to overcome before they can pull off the upset.
A motivated Datsyuk will try to put his team on his back in an effort to create a memorable swansong in Detroit, but not even the Magic Man will be enough to tip the scales in the Red Wings' favor.
Expect another back-and-forth series like last year, featuring plenty of momentum swings before the Lightning prevail on home ice at Amalie Arena.
All stats courtesy of NHL.com.
.jpeg?w=600 "Final Playoff Spots Clinched")
.png?w=600 "Draft Prospect Rankings 🔢")
