Is Jaromir Jagr's Slump a Sign the End Is Near for the NHL Legend?

Jaromir Jagr started 2015-16 in glorious fashion for the Florida Panthers, continuing a resurgence that started following last season’s trade-deadline move from New Jersey. However, he has since slumped in a big way.

Given that he’ll turn 44 in February, it’s worth asking whether this is a temporary setback or the beginning of the end.

Before we get into the details, let's look at exactly how Jagr generates his offence.

This year, almost everything has been driven by his shot. Of his seven assists, the majority have been shots which turned into rebounds or loose pucks around the net. In total, 11 of his 14 points have come because he took a shot.

This goal against Buffalo is a good example:

Jagr shoots from a suboptimal position, just to the outside of the scoring-chance area. He’s trying to score, of course; there’s a screen in front, and he’s aiming for the gap between Linus Ullmark’s legs. But not scoring isn’t a terrible outcome, because the shot creates chaos in front of the net. Eventually Jonathan Huberdeau, who provided the initial screen, is able to bang home a loose puck in the crease area.

Four of Jagr’s seven assists have come with an initial shot which wasn’t stopped cleanly.

He’s certainly capable of using his formidable skill to set up prettier goals, but mostly he drives the offence with a meat-and-potatoes approach. The gorgeous pass, like the one he gave Aaron Ekblad against Calgary, is a relative rarity:

Jagr, even in his prime, was always a volume shooter. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about his extended NHL swan song, now in its fifth year, is the way he’s managed to keep up that quality.

The following graph looks at his shot rates after the 2004-05 lockout, both before and since his sojourn in Europe:

Season	Attempts/60	Shots/60
2005-06	12	8
2006-07	14	9
2007-08	16	8
2011-12	14	7
2012-13	13	7
2013-14	14	8
2014-15	13	7
2015-16	10	4

The first number is shot attempts. In his three years before going to Europe, Jagr averaged roughly 14 shot attempts per hour at even strength. Over the last four seasons, he’s been right around 13.5. It’s incredible: Last year, at the age of 42, he took more shot attempts per hour than he did in 2005-06 at the age of 33.

The second number is shots through to the net. Again, we see remarkable sustain; he went from averaging 8.5 shots per hour down to right around seven, which isn’t much of a drop given his age. That is, until this season, in which he's taking just four shots per hour.

Jagr is taking fewer tries at shots, and less than half of the shot attempts he takes are making it through to the opposition goalie.

Why are his overall offensive totals (14 points in 16 games) so good? Mostly it is because his shooting percentage is absurdly high. Jagr has scored on 23.3 percent of the shots he’s taken, a number which will represent a career high if it somehow manages to hold up. Jagr’s previous best came 19 seasons ago in 1996-97, when he scored 47 goals on 234 shots (20.1 shooting percentage) for Pittsburgh.

So, this is the beginning of the end, right? Perhaps not. It’s worth looking at Jagr’s game-by-game track record. When we do, we see an interesting split between his first eight games of the season and the last eight games he’s played:

• First eight games: six goals, 23 shots
• Last eight games: one goal, seven shots

The first game in that second eight-game set was an October 27 contest against the Colorado Avalanche. It’s worth quoting the official NHL.com recap here:

"

The Panthers (5-3-1) won despite losing Jagr in the first period because of a lower-body injury. He played 2:30 before leaving late in the period and did not return.

"I think it's a groin or hip, something minor," [head coach Gerard] Gallant said. "Hopefully tomorrow he's fine."

"

David Dwork of CBS Miami subsequently identified the problem as a hamstring injury:

Gallant’s optimistic comments notwithstanding, it seems clear that Jagr is a long way from fine. A player doesn’t go from three shots per game to one overnight for no reason; Jagr is obviously playing through injury right now. Comparing game tape, his skating seems significantly more labored during the latter eight-game stretch than it did to start the season.

Just a game before getting injured, Jagr was still leading rushes up ice, something that’s been much less common in recent games:

Given that Jagr is capable of playing, albeit at reduced effectiveness, it’s likely that his injury isn’t serious enough to threaten his long-term effectiveness. He’s struggling right now, but once he’s healed, there’s no reason to think he can’t go back to playing at the level he was at early in the year, a level which is still easily good enough for the NHL.

Statistics courtesy of war-on-ice.com and NHL.com. 

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.