NHL Power Rankings: B/R Experts' Week 4 Poll
The top and bottom of this week's B/R power rankings won't surprise anyone. The Columbus Blue Jackets became the first club to can their coach last week as the team desperately tries to right a sinking ship, while the Montreal Canadiens continue to run roughshod over every opponent they encounter.
There are, however, 28 spots up for grabs between those two extremes and some fascinating storylines early, including:
- A division in which the defending Stanley Cup champions are 5-3-0 but somehow find themselves behind five other teams in the overall standings.
- Some shocking slumps early, including a defending Western Conference finalist with just one win on the year and a lottery team from last season just one point out of the lead in its division.
- A team with a superstar who has a six-game point streak yet somehow sits only third in his club's scoring ranks.
There's been a lot of fun already this season, and we'll catch you up on as much of it as we can.
Once again, we turn to our expert panel to break down the league's 30 clubs. This week, Adrian Dater, Allan Mitchell, Lyle Richardson, Carol Schram and yours truly voted to determine the order of the list that follows. As always, we're attempting to look beyond the NHL standings here and provide some unique insight. Also as always, we're going to have mixed results.
Read on for our takes, and let us know what we got right and what we got wrong.
News and statistics are courtesy of NHL.com, war-on-ice.com and behindthenet.ca and are current through the start of action on October 26. Our experts participate in weekly voting for B/R's NHL power rankings. Once a vote is cast for a specific team, it's assigned a value—30 points for the No. 1 team in the rankings, 29 points for the second spot and so on. The totals are then added up to create the power rankings.
30-26: Columbus Blue Jackets-Colorado Avalanche
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30. Columbus Blue Jackets (Last week: 30)
Last week in these rankings, Adrian Dater grimly predicted that Todd Richards' job was already on the line.
This week, he became the first coaching casualty of the 2015-16 season, with John Tortorella replacing him behind the bench after a lousy 0-7-0 start. The Jackets dropped their first game under Tortorella, but for the first time did so by a margin of just one goal, and on Saturday, they beat Colorado 4-3 for their first win of the season. It's still going to be an uphill battle.
29. Buffalo Sabres (Last week: 28)
Buffalo picked up its second win of the season on Wednesday, squeaking out a 2-1 victory over Toronto in the shootout. They followed that up by getting blown out by Montreal on Friday and then falling to New Jersey on Saturday. The Sabres' only other win this season came over the hapless Jackets, and Chad Johnson is now the team's No. 1 goaltender, so things are not trending in a positive direction.
28. Carolina Hurricanes (Last week: 26)
Cam Ward shut out Colorado on Wednesday, allowing the 'Canes to claw their way to a 1-0 overtime win, just the team's second victory of the season. Despite that performance, goaltending is very much a concern for Carolina. Ward has been the team's starter and currently boasts a .899 save percentage, and even that's better than Eddie Lack's .833 over his first two games.
27. Toronto Maple Leafs (Last week: 24)
Toronto slides three spots in our panel's rankings after going winless last week. That's perhaps a touch unfair as a summary, as the Leafs did pick up a point against Buffalo and managed 52 shots on first-place Montreal in their other outing, but it's also tough to blame the panel for its pessimism. The Maple Leafs have generally looked competitive in the early going, but last year's record means they have a lot to prove.
26. Colorado Avalanche (Last week: 21)
Colorado has lost three consecutive games after splitting the year's first four contests, and two of the losses came courtesy of teams even lower in these rankings than the Avs. At even strength, Colorado has the worst score-adjusted Fenwick rating in the entire league.
25-21: Calgary Flames-Ottawa Senators
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25. Calgary Flames (Last week: 27)
Calgary picked up an overtime win against Detroit on Friday, but for the most part, its modest bounce in these rankings seems to be a result of other teams being even worse rather than the Flames being particularly good. With the exception of that win over the Red Wings, the Flames have been outscored by three or more goals in each of their last four games.
24. Anaheim Ducks (Last week: 23)
The Ducks kicked off a five-game road trip this week with a pair of losses, being outscored 8-1 by Minnesota and Nashville. The team scoring lead is currently a three-way tie between Hampus Lindholm, Mike Santorelli and Rickard Rakell, all of whom have two points. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler are all stuck at just a single assist each on the season.
23. Edmonton Oilers (Last week: 25)
After opening the season with a quartet of losses, the Oilers won three straight to gain some ground in the NHL standings. However, those three wings have been followed by a pair of losses, including a rather embarrassing 7-4 decision against Washington.
They've now lost two-thirds of their games and are getting hammered on the shot clock by basically the same amount as they have in seasons past. Right now, they're being buoyed by the misfortune of other teams, but we'll see if that lasts.
22. Boston Bruins (Last week: 22)
Things are actually trending up for the Bruins, who now have points in four straight games and wins in three of them. However, this week saw the Bruins win one and lose one and thus not make up any ground in the overall rankings. David Krejci has been very good early; he has 12 points, which ties him for the league scoring lead.
21. Ottawa Senators (Last week: 16)
Ottawa started the year by winning three of four but has now lost four consecutive games, with three of those defeats coming in front of the home fans. In fairness, two of the losses came in the shootout, which suggests we shouldn't get too carried away in burying them just yet.
Of note: One of those shootout losses was Andrew Hammond's first start of the season after missing some time with a groin injury early on.
20-16: Vancouver Canucks-Pittsburgh Penguins
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20. Vancouver Canucks (Last week: 14)
Vancouver started the year with three wins and an overtime loss in its first four games. Since that time, the Canucks have dropped four straight, though they have the cold comfort of collecting two points in overtime losses.
Much of the story belongs to Ryan Miller, who had a .920 save percentage or better in each of the first four games and allowed three goals just once; in the last four games, he has allowed three or more three times and failed to hit the .920 mark in all four contests.
19. New Jersey Devils (Last week: 29)
It's been a very impressive week for the Devils. Last Sunday, as these rankings came out, they won their first game of the year after dropping four straight. Since then, they've topped Arizona, Ottawa and Buffalo to climb to .500 on the year. Cory Schneider is 4-1-1 with a .922 save percentage, and bargain free-agent signing Lee Stempniak has seven points in eight games.
18. Arizona Coyotes (Last week: 17)
The Coyotes started cooling off last week, and the process continued this week as the team won one of three and fell to 4-3-1 on the season. What this team is in the present remains uncertain, but at least the future is bright. Youngsters Max Domi, Anthony Duclair and Tobias Rieder are all top-five scorers for Arizona.
17. Detroit Red Wings (Last week: 13)
After an impressive start to the year, the Red Wings didn't even tread water this week, going 1-1-1 on a Western Canadian road swing against very beatable teams. The goaltending battle here is in full swing and has helped to cover for some pretty mediocre work by the club overall. Jimmy Howard is 2-1-1 with a .924 save percentage, while Petr Mrazek is 2-2-0 with a .925 save percentage. This one may take some time to settle.
16. Pittsburgh Penguins (Last week: 18)
The Penguins averted panic last week by winning a couple of games after going 0-3 to start the year. This week, they continued to make incremental progress, winning two of three and scoring a season-high three goals against Florida on Tuesday. Marc-Andre Fleury has been very good, but the shocker here is that Evgeni Malkin (seven points in eight games) is the only player on this high-octane team with more than four points.
15-11: Philadelphia Flyers-Winnipeg Jets
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15. Philadelphia Flyers (Last week: 19)
The week started on a sour note for Philly. A loss against Dallas on Tuesday was followed immediately by a game against Boston, a game that saw both Sean Couturier and Michal Neuvirth exit early due to injury.
Nevertheless, the Flyers persevered and gritted out an overtime victory. They followed that win with a shootout decision over the Rangers. The latter had to be especially sweet for Steve Mason, who had taken a back seat to Neuvirth in the early going but turned aside 37 of 39 shots and then all three shooters in the skills competition.
14. Florida Panthers (Last week: 15)
The Panthers had a pretty tough three-game road trip this week and came out of it OK, going 1-1-1. That's not going to excite anyone, but they blew out Dallas, fell by a single goal to Chicago and forced overtime against the Penguins, which isn't bad against three pretty good teams.
Al Montoya played against the Stars, which was the final opponent of the trip, and he was exceptional. So far on the season, he is 2-0-0 with a .948 save percentage. He's pushing for more time, even with Luongo sitting pretty with a .934 save percentage.
13. Los Angeles Kings (Last week: 20)
Reports of the Kings' demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. After losing its first three games, Los Angeles hammered out five straight wins, including three in a stretch that saw the team play three games in four nights. Jonathan Quick is a big part of the reason the Kings are back. After allowing nine goals in his first two games, he has allowed two or fewer and posted a 0.920 save percentage or better in five straight contests.
12. San Jose Sharks (Last week: 6)
The week ended on a high note, with a 5-2 win over Carolina on Saturday, but that victory over the hapless Hurricanes merely brought an end to a week-long/three-game losing streak.
Still, there are some very positive indicators for the Sharks. The Martin Jones gamble seems to be working out (5-2-0, .940 save percentage), and despite a lack of depth (Fear the Fin reports the fourth line against Carolina consisted of AHLers John McCarthy and Bryan Lerg, along with enforcer Mike Brown), San Jose has managed to play a solid possession game.
11. Winnipeg Jets (Last week: 10)
Winnipeg slips just outside the top 10 after narrowly beating the Wild and narrowly losing to the Lightning in Week 4 of the season. Last year's fight for minutes in net between Onderj Pavelec and Michael Hutchinson is back in full swing, though neither player helped himself particularly as the Jets surrendered eight goals over the week.
Rookie Nikolaj Ehlers scored in both contests, while fellow freshman Nic Petan is stuck at one assist and trying to climb beyond the fourth line.
10. New York Islanders
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Record: 5-2-1, 11 points
Last week: 4
Big picture
The Islanders really emerged as a competitive team last season after an industrious summer from general manager Garth Snow. This year, they need to confirm that status, and they've done that well in the early going. After consecutive losses to start the year, the Isles are 5-1-0 in their last six.
Importantly, the team has both scoring depth and top-end ability. John Tavares has 11 points through eight games and is off to a great start to the year, while nine other skaters are currently on pace for 40-plus-point seasons.
By the numbers
Incumbent starter Jarolsav Halak was injured to start the year, which forced New York to lean on Thomas Greiss both earlier and to a greater degree than anticipated. Greiss delivered wonderfully, going 3-0-1 with a .932 save percentage.
Halak, for his part, has had a couple of difficult outings but also put up a 37-save shutout against Columbus. In some ways, the injury early is a good thing for the Isles, who can have the confidence in Greiss that they simply couldn't in any of last season's backups.
9. Chicago Blackhawks
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Record: 5-3-0, 10 points
Last week: 11
Big picture
Right now the Blackhawks should be in survival mode, given that franchise defenceman Duncan Keith is on the shelf.
Instead, Chicago won both of its games this week without its elite blueliner, and it looked comfortable doing it. Sure, the Blackhawks have two undrafted rookies in their top four on defence (6'8" Viktor Svedberg and Trevor van Riemsdyk, who was hurt last year) and a bunch of new faces up front, but that hasn't altered their ability to win games, at least not yet.
Put in a sunnier way, this is a chance for the Hawks to test out some depth defencemen before the postseason.
By the numbers
Some players take a while to adapt to the smaller ice in North America after coming over from Europe. Not so for Artemi Panarin, the 23-year-old KHL star who signed with Chicago over the summer. Not only did he immediately find a home with Patrick Kane and Artem Anisimov on Chicago's second line, but he's scoring at a point-per-game pace early in his NHL career.
Most impressively of all, head coach Joel Quenneville has quickly upped his ice time, so much so that he's now regularly flirting with the 20-minutes-per-game mark.
8. Tampa Bay Lightning
7 of 14
Record: 5-2-2, 12 points
Last week: 3
Big picture
Tampa Bay opened a four-game road trip in Week 4, and the results were mixed. The Lightning went to overtime or the shootout in all three games it played, beating Winnipeg but coming out on the wrong end of close contests against Nashville and Chicago. It was an exciting and fairly creditable run, albeit one that hurt the team's position in the league standings.
The Bolts still boast a decent lead on most of the Atlantic Division, but they find themselves six points back of Montreal already.
By the numbers
According to General Fanager, Tampa Bay currently has a little under $2.0 million in salary-cap space. That's a big problem. Not only is Steven Stamkos an unrestricted free agent owed a big raise this summer, but Nikita Kucherov and Alex Killorn are both also bound for restricted free agency. Braydon Coburn is the only big name coming off the books, so expect the Lightning to work hard to find a trade that will shed salary at some point this season.
7. Minnesota Wild
8 of 14
Record: 5-2-1, 11 points
Last week: 8
Big picture
Minnesota's big problem this year could be a very competitive Central Division. The top six teams in the Western Conference all play in the Central, and the Wild are currently in a three-way tie for third (just ahead of sixth-place Chicago). Despite a hot start, they haven't earned any breathing room from their divisional opponents.
By the numbers
After averaging more than 29 minutes per game in each of the last two seasons, it appears that Ryan Suter may be headed for a bit of a break. He's played just 25:57 per game through eight contests this season and has yet to hit 29 minutes in a single game.
The Wild are still leaning on him heavily, but with a little bit less ice time, he may be more effective in the playoffs. He's minus-18 over 28 postseason games the last three seasons, and while plus/minus is a garbage stat, he's also posted the worst Corsi number of any regular Wild defenceman five-on-five in the playoffs and struggled to produce offensively. Fatigue may well have been a major factor in that.
6. New York Rangers
9 of 14
Record: 6-2-2, 14 points
Last week: 9
Big picture
It was a pretty busy week for the Rangers, and it was also a pretty successful one, as the team went 3-0-1, collecting points in every game despite a hectic schedule. They have now played a league-leading 10 contests and have a break, with only one game to come over the remainder of October.
However, while New York is in a good position in the standings, there are definitely some wrinkles to iron out. The offence isn't really clicking yet (though rookie forward Oscar Lindberg is trying to carry the load himself), and the team's possession numbers really aren't very good. The goaltending has won the Rangers some games and bought head coach Alain Vigneault some time to fix those other issues.
By the numbers
No slow start for Henrik Lundqvist this year. New York's franchise cornerstone is 4-2-2 with a .941 save percentage and has been brilliant. Incredibly, backup Antti Raanta has perhaps been even more impressive, allowing just a single goal on 45 shots over his two starts, both of which ended in Rangers victories.
5. Dallas Stars
10 of 14
Record: 6-2-0, 12 points
Last week: 7
Big picture
Like the Wild, the Stars have to fight through the difficulties of playing in the toughest division in the NHL. So far, though, they're doing splendidly.
Dallas currently boasts the best penalty kill in the NHL, the third-best power play in the NHL and at five-on-five, they have the fourth-best score-adjusted Corsi rating in the game. The underlying numbers on the special teams aren't quite so favourable, but even so, this is a club that looks like a legitimate contender after a tough 2014-15.
By the numbers
Three players are currently tied for the NHL scoring lead with 12 points each. Two of them call Texas home, and they are exactly the players one would expect: Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Benn has eight goals and a whopping 38.1 shooting percentage in the early going, which also puts him in the NHL goal-scoring lead.
4. St. Louis Blues
11 of 14
Record: 5-2-1, 11 points
Last week: 2
Big picture
After four straight games in which they scored a total of 16 goals and won four times, the Blues took a step back this week, falling to both Montreal and the Islanders. That has bumped them into a tie for third in the Central Division, putting them back of both Nashville and Dallas. It's going to be fun to watch the six great teams here duke it out this season, and there's no way of knowing at this point how it will eventually break down, though obviously our panel likes the Blues' chances.
And why not? St. Louis has the best score-adjusted shot metrics in the game at five-on-five, and while special teams have yet to click, the Blues were lethal on the power play and practically impregnable on the penalty kill last year.
By the numbers
It's never good to see a player injured, and especially not one as valuable as Kevin Shattenkirk, but in the Blues' case, the silver lining has been the emergence of Colton Parayko.
Parayko is a 6'5", 226-pound right-shooting defenceman, which sounds impressive and becomes more so once one realizes he already has five points in eight games, has a better than 60 percent Corsi rating and is playing better than 19 minutes per game for one of the best teams in hockey. His offence may yet cool (Parayko is currently riding a 15.8 shooting percentage), but he's a dark-horse Calder Trophy candidate.
3. Nashville Predators
12 of 14
Record: 6-1-1, 13 points
Last week: 5
Big picture
Nashville's season to date has followed a pleasant routine: win three, lose one, win three, lose one. It's a nice way to be. Defence and goaltending have been solid, but the best surprise has been how capable the scorers have been. The Predators have scored three or more goals in five of their last six contests. It's been enough to win the team first place in the toughest division in hockey.
By the numbers
It's important to have a group of defencemen who can move the puck and chip in offensively in today's NHL. Nashville pretty much exemplifies that. The Preds boast five defencemen in their top nine scorers and already have five goals from the blue line on the season.
2. Washington Capitals
13 of 14
Record: 6-1-0, 12 points
Last week: 12
Big picture
Our panel was pessimistic about Washington last week, but an impressive 3-0-0 romp through Western Canada in which the Caps outscored their opposition by a combined 16-8 margin has our experts feeling much, much warmer this week.
Washington has the best even-strength shot metrics in the Eastern Conference. It has a captain in Alex Ovechkin who has points in every game and three multipoint games yet somehow sits only third in team scoring. It's a team that has so far managed to outscore any of its problems; in its six wins, the Capitals offence has been held to three goals once and scored four or more on five occasions.
By the numbers
Washington's scoring leader right now is Evgeny Kuznetsov, who put up a ridiculous nine points and 12 shots in three games last week. Kuznetsov's emergence has allowed the Capitals to split Ovechkin from regular centre Nicklas Backstrom. It's worked wonderfully, as Backstrom has four goals and seven points in four games centering the team's second line.
1. Montreal Canadiens
14 of 14
Record: 9-0-0, 18 points
Last week: 1
Big picture
It's pretty hard to argue with perfection. Not only have the Canadiens won nine times in nine tries, but they have racked up a gaudy plus-23 goal differential in the process, more than double that managed by the next best team (Washington, plus-11). Montreal is averaging nearly four goals per game and allowing just a little more than one per night.
This early run is setting Montreal up nicely for the rest of the season. The Habs now have a six-point cushion on Tampa Bay for the division lead, a four-point cushion on the Rangers (with a game in hand) for the conference lead and would likely still make the playoffs even with something like a 35-28-10 run the rest of the way.
By the numbers
The Canadiens have never really been analytics darlings before; even last season, the consensus among number-crunchers seemed to be that they were just a decent club that had the good fortune to employ Carey Price.
That's changing this year. Through nine games Montreal, owns an impressive 53.5 percent score-adjusted Fenwick rating, which is exactly the kind of even-strength shot clock dominance typically associated with clubs like Chicago and Los Angeles.
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