Predicting the Top Candidates for the 2015-16 Selke Trophy

At the end of each season, the National Hockey League awards the Frank J. Selke Trophy to "the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game, as selected by the Professional Hockey Writers' Association," per NHL Public Relations. The Selke Trophy is awarded for regular-season performance.

Today's advanced stats have added many more prisms through which we can assess defensive performance, but league-leading Corsi percentages or SAT metrics, as the NHL prefers, don't necessarily guarantee a shot at the hardware.

Most of the hockey writers who vote for these awards are longtime veterans whose hockey experiences stretch back to well before the fancy-stats era.

When they cast their ballots these days, writers tend to favor responsible centers who play key minutes on one of their team's top two lines, put up decent offensive numbers, are strong in the faceoff circle and have had some past success in the playoffs. Even the now-unfashionable plus-minus statistic can come into play.

The writers have also anointed a core group of favored candidates to sit at the top of the rankings over the better part of the last decade—and that doesn't look like it'll change much anytime soon.

Looking beyond the advanced statistics, here's an early sampling of the names we might see in the Selke discussion in 2015-16, including some players who might be able squeeze in among the usual contenders if they have strong seasons.

Who do you think will catch the writers' attention next year?

8. Ryan O'Reilly: Buffalo Sabres

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2014-15 Stats: 82 GP, 17-18-35, 20th overall in NHL with 53.4 percent faceoff success, tied for first overall in NHL with 98 takeaways.

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Ryan O'Reilly finished 12th in Selke voting last season with 45 points, including one first-place vote. His best showing came in 2013-14, when he finished sixth in Selke voting and won the Lady Byng Trophy.

Why He's a Candidate: With a new home in Buffalo and a new contract extension that will increase his cap hit from $6 million in 2015-16 to $7.5 for the seven years after that, Ryan O'Reilly's a two-way center on the rise.

He's a decent scorer who will move into a top-six role, providing leadership and playing tough minutes for the revamped Buffalo Sabres. He'll earn the attention of the hockey media when the Sabres climb back to respectability.

It's unlikely that Buffalo's turnaround will happen quickly enough to make O'Reilly a Selke finalist in 2015-16, but he'll continue to build a reputation that will position him to be a part of the next wave of Selke candidates once the current favorites start to fade.

7. Ondrej Palat: Tampa Bay Lightning

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2014-15 Stats: 75 GP, 16-47-63, fourth overall in NHL at plus-31.

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Ondrej Palat finished ninth in Selke voting last season with 68 points, one point behind his linemate Tyler Johnson. He ranked 11th in 2013-14, when he also placed second in voting for the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year.

Why He's a Candidate: Although Palat plays left wing, his coach, Jon Cooper, hails the 24-year-old as the defensive conscience of the Tampa Bay Lightning's famed Triplets line.

"I still believe Palat is the straw that stirs the drink on that line," Cooper told Dan Rosen of NHL.com back in January. "He's oozing with hockey sense and he's skilled. He is like Patrice Bergeron as a winger to me."

Palat's future Selke candidacy is hampered by the fact that he's not a center—Jere Lehtinen was the last winger to capture the award when he won the trophy for the third time in 2002-03.

But Palat garnered a decent number of votes last spring, showing that he was on the writers' radar even before the Tampa Bay Lightning stormed through to the Stanley Cup Final. His reputation as one of the league's best defensive forwards should continue to grow in the years to come.

6. Joe Thornton: San Jose Sharks

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2014-15 Stats: 78 GP, 16-49-65, first among centers in NHL's enhanced stats in SAT Rel% and SAT Close, second in overall SAT, third in NHL with 58.0 percent faceoff success.

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Joe Thornton finished 14th in Selke voting last season with 40 points, the best showing of his career. In 2005-06, he won the Hart Trophy as the NHL's most valuable player and the Art Ross Trophy as top scorer.

Why He's a Candidate: Though the San Jose Sharks' 2014-15 season was one to forget, Thornton had an outstanding individual year, finishing seventh in the NHL in assists and playing one of the best two-way games in the league.

If the Sharks bounce back in 2015-16 under new coach Peter DeBoer, Thornton will play a key role. Now an elder statesman in the league, the writers will be eager to laud the 36-year-old for adapting to a hard-working, defensively responsible role in the twilight of his career.

5. Ryan Kesler: Anaheim Ducks

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2014-15 Stats: 81 GP, 20-27-47, ninth overall in NHL with 56.3 percent faceoff success.

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Ryan Kesler finished 10th in Selke voting last season with 67 points. He's a past Selke winner, capturing the trophy with the Vancouver Canucks in 2010-11 when he scored his career-high 41 goals and was a plus-24.

Why He's a Candidate: Kesler delivered as promised during his first season as an Anaheim Duck, providing support for Ryan Getzlaf down the middle and helping the Ducks reach the Western Conference Final for the first time since they won the Stanley Cup in 2007.

For his efforts, Anaheim rewarded Kesler with a six-year contract extension with a cap hit of $6.875 million. It will kick in for the 2016-17 second and extend until his 38th birthday.

The Ducks continue to build up their roster while salary-cap considerations are forcing past Cup winners in the Chicago Blackhawks, Boston Bruins and Los Angeles Kings to pare down. Kesler's well-supported by the strong team around him and will see his fair share of the spotlight, which will help him earn significant Selke consideration.

4. Pavel Datsyuk: Detroit Red Wings

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2014-15 Stats: 63 GP, 26-39-65, plus-12, 19th overall in NHL with 53.6 percent faceoff success.

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Pavel Datsyuk finished fifth in Selke voting last season with 238 points, including three first-place votes. He's a three-time Selke winner from 2008-2010 as well as a four-time Lady Byng Trophy winner and a two-time Stanley Cup champion.

Why He's a Candidate: Now 37 years old, Pavel Datsyuk is the embodiment of the modern Selke Trophy recipient—offensively dazzling while able to play a strong two-way game and with a couple of Stanley Cups already in his trophy case. 

Datsyuk was strong in the faceoff circle in 2014-15, and his enhanced stat numbers were excellent—third overall in SAT Rel% and fourth in SAT Close, according to NHL.com.

There's one column on the stat sheet that causes concern these days when it comes to Datsyuk: games played. Injuries have plagued the shifty center over the last five seasons, and he is not expected to be ready for the beginning of the 2015-16 campaign after undergoing ankle surgery in June, according to a report from SVT.se of Sweden (h/t Brendan Savage of MLive.com).

Once Datsyuk gets back to 100 percent, expect to see him working his usual magic—putting up a point a game and scoring highlight-reel goals while also frustrating hockey's toughest opponents.

3. Patrice Bergeron: Boston Bruins

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2014-15 Stats: 81 GP, 23-32-55, plus-two, second among centers in SAT Rel% and fourth in SAT from NHL.com's enhanced stats, first in NHL with 60.2 percent success rate in faceoff circle.

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Patrice Bergeron won his third Selke Trophy in 2014-15 with 1,083 points and 75 first-place votes. He has finished in the top five in voting in each of the past six seasons. He won the Stanley Cup with the Boston Bruins in 2011.

Why He's a Candidate: Although Boston had a tough season and missed the playoffs in 2014-15, Bergeron's individual play was as strong as ever. He was the most reliable faceoff man in the entire NHL and was a dogged defensive force whenever he was on the ice. Bergeron also led the Bruins in scoring.

As salary-cap issues have forced Boston into a transition period with old faces on the way out and new ones coming in, the team's fortunes could make it tougher for Bergeron to shine as brightly as he has over the past few years.

If the Bruins do climb back into the playoff picture, he'll be a real contender to join Bob Gainey as just the second player in NHL history to win the Selke Trophy four times.

2. Jonathan Toews: Chicago Blackhawks

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2014-15 Stats: 81 GP, 28-38-66, fifth overall in NHL at plus-30, sixth overall in NHL with 56.3 percent faceoff success.

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Jonathan Toews finished second in Selke Trophy voting last season with 1,051 points, just 32 points behind winner Patrice Bergeron. Toews received 51 first-place votes. He won the Selke Trophy in 2013 and has finished in the top six in voting for the past six seasons. He has also won three Stanley Cups in those six years.

Why He's a Candidate: At 27 years old, Jonathan Toews is entering his prime hockey years having already amassed a stunning collection of achievements. Add his two Olympic gold medals to his three Stanley Cups, and you have compelling evidence that Toews delivers at both ends of the ice when he's matched up against the toughest competition in the world.

With his Chicago Blackhawks knocking on the door of dynasty status, Captain Serious is poised to see his name on the list of Selke Trophy finalists for many years to come.

1. Anze Kopitar: Los Angeles Kings

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2014-15 Stats: 79 GP, 16-48-64, 26th overall in NHL with 52.6 percent faceoff success.

Past Selke Consideration and Other Awards: Anze Kopitar finished third in Selke voting last season with 364 points, including five first-place votes. He has finished in the top four in voting for the past three seasons.

Why He's a Candidate: With those two Stanley Cups and a top-line offensive role that saw him lead all Los Angeles Kings in ice time and lead his team in scoring, Kopitar's talent and work ethic are undeniable.

Turning 28 later this summer, he's in the same age range as Bergeron and Toews, but so far they've blocked him from winning the big prize.

One of these years, Kopitar will take home the Selke Trophy. If the Kings have a bounce-back season while the depleted Bruins and Blackhawks struggle, it could happen in 2015-16.

Stats courtesy of NHL.com and Hockey-Reference.com. Contract information from General Fanager.