Rangers vs. Penguins: Preview and Prediction for the 2015 NHL Playoffs Matchup
For the second straight year, the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins will face off in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Last season, Pittsburgh finished at the top of the Metropolitan Division and triumphed in a rowdy first-round series against the Columbus Blue Jackets before eventually falling to the Rangers in the semifinals.
This year, the tables have turned. After reaching the 2014 Stanley Cup Final, the Rangers came back strong and finished the 2014-15 regular season at the top of the NHL standings, winners of the Presidents' Trophy. For their part, the Pens have endured a season full of injuries, barely limping into the last Eastern Conference playoff spot on the final day of the season.
What lies ahead next week? Click through for a complete analysis of the upcoming Rangers-Penguins playoff series.
Regular-Season Recap
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New York Rangers
Coming off an appearance in 2014 Stanley Cup Final in coach Alain Vigneault's first season behind the bench, the New York Rangers followed up with the best regular-season performance in the NHL in 2014-15—a record of 53-22-7 for 113 points.
The Presidents' Trophy win is New York's first since the year of its last Stanley Cup win, 1993-94.
Offensively, the Rangers have been led by a bounce-back year from Rick Nash, who reached a new career high with 42 goals. Other stars up front included Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan and Martin St. Louis.
As usual, much of New York's success was anchored around another outstanding season by goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. When the goaltender was sidelined for eight weeks with a vascular injury starting in early February, the Rangers proved their mettle as a team by going on an 18-4-3 run and climbing from seventh to first in the Eastern Conference standings.
Strong at all positions, the 2014-15 New York Rangers look like they're poised to be a tough out in this year's playoffs.
Pittsburgh Penguins
After falling to the Rangers in the second round of the 2014 playoffs, a summer of change in Pittsburgh saw the installation of new general manager Jim Rutherford, new head coach Mike Johnston and an attempt at a culture change for a team that hadn't lived up to its playoff billing since winning the Stanley Cup in 2009.
A strong start to the season was derailed by a mind-boggling sequence of injuries and illnesses, many of them serious. Rutherford continued shuffling his lineup throughout the season—filling holes and working to build offensive chemistry for his top scorers, Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby.
Malkin was competing for the league's scoring title before being slowed by injury and missing eight of the team's last 14 games of the year. Then, Crosby was in the hunt before being passed by Jamie Benn and John Tavares on the last day of the season.
Down the stretch, more injuries on the blue line, including a season-ending concussion for Kris Letang, caused the Pens to limp to a record of 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. Pittsburgh needed its 2-0 win over the Buffalo Sabres in the final game of the season in order to secure the second wild-card position in the East with a record of 43-27-12 for 98 points.
Schedule and TV Info
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Game 1
Thursday, April 16
7 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh at New York Rangers
NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 2
Saturday, April 18
8 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh at New York Rangers
NBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 3
Monday, April 20
7 p.m. ET
New York Rangers at Pittsburgh
NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 4
Wednesday, April 22
7 p.m. ET
New York Rangers at Pittsburgh
NBCSN, Sportsnet 360, TVA Sports
Game 5*
Friday, April 24
TBD
Pittsburgh at New York Rangers
Television TBD
Game 6*
Sunday, April 26
TBD
New York Rangers at Pittsburgh
Television TBD
Game 7*
Tuesday, April 28
TBD
Pittsburgh at New York Rangers
Television TBD
*If necessary.
Key Storylines
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Will the Presidents' Trophy Winners Keep Rolling Like the NHL's Best Team?
Charging into the postseason with a 6-1-0 record in their last seven games, the Rangers are starting the playoffs firing on all cylinders.
New York finished the season with the NHL's highest goal differential at plus-60. Good both offensively and defensively, they tied for third overall with 252 goals scored and were also third with just 192 goals against. Rick Nash finished in the top 20 in NHL scoring while both Lundqvist and his backup, Cam Talbot, ended the year with top-10 save percentages.
The Rangers are also nearly 100 percent healthy. Kevin Klein looks ready to return after missing the last 16 games of the season with a broken arm, per Larry Brooks of The New York Post, while Marc Staal is expected back for Game 1 after missing the last couple of games of the year.
Who Wins the Special Teams Battle?
Despite the No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup for this series, there isn't much to choose between these two teams when playing in outnumbered situations.
Pittsburgh holds a slight edge in penalty-killing; it ranked third in the league with an 84.8 percent success rate, while the Rangers finished sixth at 84.3 percent.
On the power play, the Penguins also rank higher, as they finished tied for eighth with a 19.3 percent success rate, while the Rangers were 21st at 16.8 percent.
Those power-play numbers might not accurately reflect the current state of affairs, however. Pittsburgh started the season almost unstoppable with the man advantage. By the end of the year, without triggermen Kris Letang or Christan Ehrhoff, the team went just 4-of-27 over the last 10 games—a conversion rate of less than 15 percent.
On the other side, the Rangers continue to struggle with the man advantage despite the acquisition of offensive defenseman Keith Yandle at the trade deadline. New York is just 4-of-31 in its last 10 games—converting on less than 13 percent of its power-play opportunities.
Whichever side figures out a way to capitalize with the man advantage could build a distinct edge in the series.
How Does the Rivalry Play out?
Last year's second-round series between the Rangers and Penguins was one of the most dramatic parts of the 2014 Stanley Cup playoffs. After Pittsburgh jumped out to a 3-1 series lead and appeared to be on the verge of eliminating New York, the sudden passing of Martin St. Louis' mother proved to be a rallying point for a Rangers team that came back to win the series in seven games, then advance all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.
That outcome caused big repercussions in Pittsburgh, most notably the dismissal of general manager Ray Shero and coach Dan Bylsma. The Rangers have gone on to dominate this season, taking seven of eight possible points.
Including last year's playoffs, Pittsburgh has now failed to beat the Rangers in regulation time in seven straight attempts. The Penguins' only win of the 2014-15 season was a 3-2 shootout victory at home on November 15, while the Rangers won 5-0 on November 11, 4-3 in overtime on December 8 and 5-2 on January 18.
Players to Watch
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Rick Nash, New York Rangers
With three goals and seven assists in 25 playoff games during 2014, the Rangers forward with the highest cap hit on the team ($7.8 million, per Spotrac) finished the playoffs ranked 10th in team scoring and fourth among New York's left wingers.
Nash has redeemed himself with an excellent regular-season performance in 2014-15, though he cooled off with just seven points in his final 15 games of the year. If he can threaten in the playoffs, he'll give New York one more weapon on top of the arsenal that defeated the Penguins last spring.
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins
With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin as their top two centers, the Penguins are often criticized for the lack of offensive depth among their bottom-six forwards.
When either Crosby or Malkin disappears due to a slump or injury, Pittsburgh becomes a one-line team. This could be the case heading into the playoffs.
Rob Rossi of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review refers to Malkin's current ailment as a "bad back" and suggests he "played Saturday night (against Buffalo) because his team was on the brink of an unimaginable failure to qualify for the playoffs." It hasn't helped much: When he has been in the lineup, Malkin has been pointless in his last five games.
Third-line center Brandon Sutter picked up the slack for the injured Malkin on Saturday, scoring both Pittsburgh goals in the 2-0 win over Buffalo. With four goals in the Penguins' last five games, Sutter has matched his career high of 21, but the Penguins need him for his defensive play as much as for chipping in the odd timely tally.
If Malkin's not healthy enough to contribute regularly against New York, the Penguins will be hard-pressed to generate enough offense to win the series.
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins
One player could single-handedly rescue the series for the Penguins—Marc-Andre Fleury.
The 30-year-old goaltender has often been seen as a liability in the postseason—most notably when he was benched in favour of backup Tomas Vokoun during the Penguins' first-round series against the New York Islanders in 2013.
Last year, Fleury was solid in the playoffs. He has followed up that performance with his best regular season as a starter—a .920 save percentage, 2.32 goals-against average and a league-leading 10 shutouts.
If Fleury can start the series in Madison Square Garden by stealing a game or two for his Penguins, all the Rangers' regular-season bluster could vanish in a puff of smoke.
Goaltender Breakdown
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Henrik Lundqvist/Cam Talbot, New York Rangers
The silver lining to Henrik Lundqvist's scary neck injury suffered in late January? Now, the New York Rangers know they boast the best one-two punch in net of any playoff team.
As always, the starter's job will belong to Lundqvist, who quickly shook off the rust from his eight-week layoff when he returned to action in late March. But if Lundqvist should suffer another injury or even struggle under the fatigue of a long playoff grind, Cam Talbot is virtually a fail-safe backup plan.
Talbot finished the year ranked fourth in the league with a .926 save percentage and 2.21 goals-against average, while Lundqvist's save percentage of .922 tied him for 10th and his goals-against average of 2.25 tied him for seventh.
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins
Fleury's 2014-15 numbers come in a hair below that of the New York netminders. His 2.32 goals-against average and .920 save percentage tied him for 15th in the NHL.
Considering all the injuries Pittsburgh has endured on its blue line this season, Fleury's stats are quite commendable—and he has those league-leading 10 shutouts in his pocket, too. If he gets on a roll, Fleury has a chance to become the story of this series—in a good way, for a change.
Biggest Mismatch: The Injured List
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As the Rangers kick back with six healthy defensemen and wait for Kevin Klein to return from his broken arm, let's run through the list of players currently sidelined for Pittsburgh, courtesy of the Penguins' website:
- D - Olli Maatta - shoulder surgery - out since December 8 - out for season
- RW - Pascal Dupuis - blood clot - out since November 18 - out for season
- D - Christian Ehrhoff - undisclosed - out since March 26 - day to day
- D - Kris Letang - concussion - out since March 29 - indefinite
- D - Derrick Pouliot - upper body - out since April 10 - day to day
Yep—that's four top-six defensemen on the sidelines. As mentioned previously, Evgeni Malkin is also believed to be in less-than-perfect health as he wrestles with back trouble.
Between that injury list and a tight salary-cap situation, the Penguins have been forced to play five of their last seven games with just five defensemen on their roster, stretching the capacities of their healthy blueliners to the limit. That could leave the core group depleted when it lines up against New York on Thursday.
Once the salary-cap restrictions were lifted at the end of the regular season, farmhands Brian Dumoulin and Scott Harrington were both recalled from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Sunday, per Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. According to Bombulie, Pouliot is expected to be ready to play on Thursday, but Ehrhoff's condition remains unclear.
On April 10, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review quoted general manager Jim Rutherford downplaying the idea that Letang could return this season. "Based on his present condition," Rutherford said, "it's not likely he'd return this year."
The injuries have left Paul Martin, Rob Scuderi, Ian Cole and Ben Lovejoy carrying the bulk of the load on the blue line over the past couple of weeks. Even with help arriving from the farm, Pittsburgh's defense will remain vulnerable to the speedy Rangers attack once the playoffs begin.
The Rangers Will Win If They Play to Their Potential
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No circus tricks are required from the Rangers in Round 1 this season.
Alain Vigneault's team simply needs to stick with its well-established program—using team speed to generate offense and rely on a steady group of defensemen and a solid system to limit Pittsburgh's scoring chances. When all else fails, Henrik Lundqvist will be there to save the day.
As long as the Rangers don't get too cocky or crumble under the pressure of high expectations, they should be able to conserve some energy for later rounds while dispatching the Penguins with minimal fanfare.
The Penguins Will Win If They Can Channel 2009
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Six years after the Penguins won the 2009 Stanley Cup, just five members of that team are skating on today's active Pittsburgh roster—centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, left wing Chris Kunitz, goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury and defenseman Rob Scuderi, who left for four years (and another Stanley Cup) to play with the Los Angeles Kings before rejoining the Penguins in the summer of 2013.
That spring, Malkin and Crosby finished the playoffs one-two in scoring. Malkin won the 2009 Conn Smythe Trophy with 36 points in 24 games, including three game-winning goals, while Crosby added 31 points of his own.
Malkin's now 28 years old. Crosby is 27. Both have played a lot of hockey, but they should now be enjoying their peak years in the sport.
If they can find that extra playoff gear when the series kicks off Thursday at MSG, Crosby and Malkin still have the skills to dominate games single-handedly.
It'll take top-level play from them both to get the better of a strong Rangers group. The hockey world would like nothing better than to see these two get up to their old tricks under the bright postseason spotlight.
Prediction: Rangers in 5
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A Rangers-Penguins series is a marketer's dream and will be one of the marquee matchups of the first round. But it isn't a very fair fight this season.
No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchups in the NHL often offer up the promise of an upset, but this series won't be an example of that.
The Rangers finished up the regular season as the class of the league. We need a magnifying glass to identify any cracks in their armor. Meanwhile, the Penguins have endured such a tough run just to get into the playoffs, they'll be busy trying to patch the holes in their own ship before they can even begin to try to scope out any of New York's vulnerabilities.
Unless Crosby, Malkin and Fleury can raise their game and drag the rest of their teammates along with them, expect a quick series and another long summer of questions in Pittsburgh.
All stats courtesy of NHL.com.
