NHL Bubble Teams' Odds of Reaching the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs
With less than a month to go until the Stanley Cup playoffs begin, a few questions still need to be answered in the National Hockey League standings.
At this point, the Florida Panthers and San Jose Sharks have fallen below "bubble team" status in their respective conferences and look like their pushes for the playoffs are subsiding.
With 76 points, the Panthers were undone by the injuries to both their goaltenders and now sit seven points out of the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, while the Sharks are five points below the last Pacific Division berth in the West.
The picture is muddy in the West, where a single point separates three teams—one of which will most likely get left out in the cold. Over in the East, just one team has a real chance to upset the conference's current order.
Here's a look at each of the bubble teams' chances of reaching the postseason after games on Wednesday, March 18, including statistical analysis from Spots Club Stats.
Eastern Conference: Washington Capitals
1 of 8
Status: 71 GP, 86 points, first wild card in Eastern Conference
Team Outlook: Alex Ovechkin's once again leading the charge for the Rocket Richard Trophy with 45 goals, while both he and linemate Nicklas Backstrom are also in the heat of the battle for the overall league scoring title.
After slipping momentarily to the second wild-card spot, the Caps have gotten back on track in their last two games with wins over the Boston Bruins and Buffalo Sabres. Washington currently enjoys a comfortable three-point cushion over Boston for the top spot in the Eastern Conference wild-card race.
What's Left on the Schedule:
- Five home games, six road games
- Three games against non-playoff teams
- One back-to-back (Predators/Rangers)
- Eight Eastern Conference games; one game each against Bruins, Senators
Odds of Reaching Playoffs: 90 percent
Sports Club Stats rates the Caps' odds at 91.7 percent, and Washington's schedule to close out the season is reasonably friendly. Boston holds a game in hand, but Washington's games are nicely spaced out, and the team won't leave the Eastern time zone again, visiting the Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets this weekend.
Expect to see the Capitals return to the playoff picture after a one-year absence.
Eastern Conference: Boston Bruins
2 of 8
Status: 70 GP, 83 points, second wild card in Eastern Conference
Team Outlook: After a rough start to their season, the Bruins have done a commendable job of climbing back into playoff contention—likely saving the jobs of general manager Peter Chiarelli and head coach Claude Julien if they can complete the task.
With a 7-1-2 record over the last 10 games, Boston successfully staved off a potential playoff surge by the Florida Panthers but is still dealing with a pesky Ottawa Senators team that is now just four points back.
Boston and Ottawa will meet on Thursday in a game that could go a long way toward deciding how this situation will play out.
Reigning Vezina Trophy-holder Tuukka Rask sat out Tuesday's game against Buffalo due to "soreness" but could play on Thursday, while injured center David Krejci may be ready to rejoin the Bruins as early as this weekend, according to NHL.com.
What's Left on the Schedule:
- Four home games, eight road games
- Six games against non-playoff teams
- Two back-to-backs (Panthers/Lightning, Rangers/Hurricanes)
- Eleven Eastern Conference games; one game each against Capitals, Senators
Odds of Reaching Playoffs: 55 percent
Sports Club Stats rates the Bruins' current odds at 70.6 percent, but the fight isn't over yet.
The Senators look like they'll continue to make a push thanks to the tremendous goaltending of upstart Andrew Hammond, which means this race could go down to the wire.
Eastern Conference: Ottawa Senators
3 of 8
Status: 69 GP, 79 points, four points out of wild card in Eastern Conference
Team Outlook: The Senators' next game could make or break their late-season surge when they host the Boston Bruins on Thursday night. A regulation win would move them within two points of that coveted last wild-card position in the East.
Ottawa's rebirth is all about outstanding goaltending from 27-year-old Andrew Hammond. He's 11-0-1 since joining the Senators in mid-February and has yet to give up more than two goals in a game.
Other than, perhaps, their two back-to-back series, expect to see the Senators ride The Hamburglar all the way down the stretch.
What's Left on the Schedule:
- Eight home games, five road games
- Six games against non-playoff teams
- Two back-to-backs (Maple Leafs/Panthers, Capitals/Maple Leafs)
- Twelve Eastern Conference games; one game each against Bruins, Capitals
Odds of Reaching Playoffs: 50 percent
Sports Club Stats currently rates Ottawa's chances of reaching the playoffs at 37.6 percent—the best odds they've enjoyed since head coach Paul MacLean was dismissed on Dec. 8.
Hammond's amazing performance has lit a spark under his team. If the Senators can beat Boston at home on Thursday, they'll have a real chance of squeaking into that last wild-card spot.
Western Conference: Vancouver Canucks
4 of 8
Status: 69 GP, 84 points, second place in Pacific Division
Team Outlook: After a disastrous 2013-14 season that saw them finish 25th overall, the Vancouver Canucks have bounced back under new coach Willie Desjardins and shown tremendous resiliency while dealing with a rash of injuries over the last two months.
Strong goaltending by backup Eddie Lack and the emergence of rookie center Bo Horvat have fuelled a core of Vancouver veterans who look determined to prove that last season was an aberration.
What's Left on the Schedule:
- Seven home games, five road games
- Six games against non-playoff teams
- Two back-to-backs (Kings/Coyotes, Blues/Predators)
- Eleven Western Conference games; two games against Kings and Jets
Odds of Reaching Playoffs: 85 percent
Sports Club Stats rates Vancouver's playoff chances at 95.7 percent, but those two remaining games against the Los Angeles Kings could still throw a wrench into their playoff plans.
Though they currently hold a one-point edge in the standings, the Canucks have yet to beat the Kings in three tries this year and have a 1-5-1 record against Los Angeles over the past two seasons. Two more regulation losses could flip the script in the Pacific in a hurry.
Western Conference: Los Angeles Kings
5 of 8
Status: 70 GP, 82 points, third place in Pacific Division
Team Outlook: The Kings don't mind taking the hard road into the playoffs, but a 12-14-7 road record means that a postseason berth this year is less than a sure thing.
Los Angeles has climbed back into playoff position but is currently duking it out with the Calgary Flames for the final berth in the Pacific Division. Offense has been a problem—only three teams in the Western Conference have scored less than the Kings' 188 goals.
What's Left on the Schedule:
- Four home games, eight road games
- Five games against non-playoff teams
- One back-to-back (Canucks/Oilers)
- Nine Western Conference games; two against Canucks, one each against Wild, Flames
Odds of Reaching Playoffs: 80 percent
After a 1-0 shutout win over the Arizona Coyotes and a 3-2 overtime loss to the Anaheim Ducks this week, Sports Club Stats now measures the Kings' playoff chances at 71.1 percent.
Eight remaining road games on their schedule could spell trouble, but as we've seen before, the Kings don't get going until the going gets tough.
Their experience should give them the edge over the Flames and Jets down the stretch. Los Angeles could even beat out Vancouver for second place in the Pacific if the Kings win both remaining head-to-head games.
Western Conference: Minnesota Wild
6 of 8
Status: 70 GP, 85 points, first wild card in Western Conference
Team Outlook: No team has turned around its season as dramatically as the Minnesota Wild, who have already accomplished what the Senators are trying to do.
Languishing in 12th place in the Western Conference when they acquired goaltender Devan Dubnyk on Jan. 14, the Wild quickly wiped out the eight-point gap that separated them from a wild-card spot and have now built a four-point cushion over closest contender Calgary.
Dubnyk has gone an astonishing 21-5-1 in 28 appearances since being traded.
What's Left on the Schedule:
- Seven home games, five road games
- Two games against non-playoff teams
- Three back-to-backs (Maple Leafs/Islanders, Flames/Kings, Jets/Blackhawks)
- Eight Western Conference games; one game each against Kings, Jets, Flames
Odds of Reaching Playoffs: 90 percent
According to Sports Club Stats, the Wild's playoff odds now sit at 92.6 percent, a stunning rise from just 5.5 percent when Dubnyk was acquired.
The only thing that might trip up Minnesota down the stretch is if Dubnyk starts to falter due to fatigue or the pressure of expectations. The new acquisition has played Minnesota's last 24 games, including three back-to-back series.
At this point, there's no sign of trouble. Dubnyk has only given up as many as three goals once in his last 14 starts.
Western Conference: Winnipeg Jets
7 of 8
Status: 70 GP, 82 points, second wild card in Western Conference
Team Outlook: Consistency and injuries have been issues for the Winnipeg Jets over the past two months.
Big wins against tough opponents like Tampa Bay, Nashville and Los Angeles have been balanced against losses to lesser teams like Florida, Toronto and Dallas. Meanwhile, key players Dustin Byfuglien and Bryan Little are languishing on the sidelines.
The Jets' goaltending situation also remains far from settled, with Ondrej Pavelec making a late case to reclaim his starter's job back from Michael Hutchinson as the Jets scramble for every point they can muster.
What's Left on the Schedule:
- Seven home games, five road games
- Three games against non-playoff teams
- Two back-to-backs (Oilers/Canucks, Wild/Blues)
- Nine Western Conference games; two games against Canucks, one game against Flames
Odds of Reaching Playoffs: 50 percent
With the teams around them all pushing hard to secure a postseason berth and improve their positioning, the Jets haven't been as consistent. Just 5-3-2 in their last 10 games, Winnipeg's mathematical odds have dipped to 56.1 percent—threatened by the strong play of the Kings and the Flames.
There's still a chance that the Jets could fall out of the race, leaving room at the dance for the Kings, Canucks and Calgary Flames.
Western Conference: Calgary Flames
8 of 8
Status: 70 GP, 81 points, fourth in Pacific Division
Team Outlook: Thanks to the leadership of captain Mark Giordano, the explosive scoring of young forwards Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan and the steady hand of netminder Jonas Hiller, the Calgary Flames got off to an unexpectedly strong start this season—and have sustained their high level of play.
Even Giordano's season-ending biceps injury hasn't slowed the Flames, who are 5-3-1 since their captain was sidelined in late February.
In just the second year of a serious franchise rebuild, Calgary is on the cusp of reaching the postseason for the first time in six years.
What's Left on the Schedule:
- Six home games, six road games
- Seven games against non-playoff teams
- One back-to-back (Predators/Stars)
- Ten Western Conference games; one game each against Wild, Kings, Jets
Odds of Reaching Playoffs: 65 percent
Back-to-back losses to the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues in their last two games have slowed the Flames' momentum and allowed the Kings to seize the third spot in the Pacific Division for the moment.
Despite their positions in the standings, Sports Club Stats still ranks the Flames' playoff chances above Los Angeles', at 73.1 percent.
Calgary has been impressively resilient this season with some impressive third-period efforts and come-from-behind wins. The Kings, however, are the masters of unlikely comebacks.
Calgary has had a great season but might not have the tools to beat L.A. at its own game just yet.
All stats courtesy of NHL.com.
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