Will Landing Jaromir Jagr Get the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Playoffs?

On Thursday, the New Jersey Devils traded pending free agent Jaromir Jagr. The trade of Jagr, whose name has been a staple in the rumour mill for months now, is not a surprise. His destination is.

It’s not like Florida Panthers got Jagr for a song either. Tom Gulitti, who covers the Devils for The Record, reports that in exchange for Jagr’s services New Jersey will land a second-round pick and a conditional third-round selection—the Panthers had two third-round picks, and the Devils get the better one.

One reason this is surprising is that Florida isn’t presently in the playoffs. As of this writing, the club sits two points back of the Boston Bruins for the final wild-card slot in the East. It’s been debated whether the Panthers were really planning to be buyers at the deadline; this is a team with a pretty young core overall, and further, it is a team that has shown a willingness to move out its own free agents:

If we consider these two trades as one larger deal from the Panthers’ perspective, it’s the equivalent of moving down from the second round to the seventh round for the privilege of upgrading Sean Bergenheim into Jaromir Jagr. How much better does that make Florida? At first blush, not a lot:

• Jagr: 57 games, 11 goals, 18 assists (0.51 points/game)
• Bergenheim: 39 games, eight goals, 10 assists (0.46 points/game)

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

There’s not much gap in those scoring numbers, and that gap disappears when we look at the context. Jagr played a touch under 15.5 minutes per game at even strength, along with two minutes and change each night on the power play. Bergenheim plays two minutes less per game at evens and averaged just 35 seconds per night on the power play in Florida. In terms of points per minute, Bergenheim actually has scored more than Jagr this season.

It’s also not like Jagr’s recent playoff credentials are much more impressive than Bergenheim’s. Since returning from the KHL, Jagr has appeared in 33 playoff games, scoring one goal and adding 17 assists for 18 points. Bergenheim has almost as many points (12 goals, five assists) in 10 fewer career playoff games.

OK, but what about two-way play? There too it’s hard to see Jagr as having a significant edge. Both players have played middling competition and posted strong Corsi numbers; Jagr’s totals are a little stronger, but he’s also had a push in the offensive zone that Bergenheim didn’t get. By the enhanced statistics, these are both solid players.

Florida might believe that Jagr can help its miserable power play. The Panthers have clicked at just a 14.8 percent rate this season, the third-worst power-play efficiency in the league, while Jagr comes to them from a significant role on a top-10 unit in New Jersey.

The trouble there is that there isn’t much evidence that Jagr is driving results; he ranked seventh in per-minute scoring on the Devils, well back of people like Martin Havlat and Steve Bernier. Nor does his track record in other cities since his NHL return inspire confidence.

At best, the Panthers are looking at a modest upgrade on the ice. If we assume that Jagr’s scoring numbers don’t tell the whole story on the power play and that his five-on-five offence was inhibited by the Devils’ defensive system, we can make a case that he can replace Bergenheim’s scoring at even strength and help get the power play clicking.

But it is possible that Florida is hoping to reap rewards off the ice. ESPN’s Katie Strang reported that Bergenheim had requested a trade and wasn’t happy with his role on the Panthers; there is undoubtedly a benefit to moving a disgruntled employee down the line.

Further, Jagr may be in his twilight years but his career is the stuff of legend, and he’s long had a reputation for being one of if not the hardest-working guy on any given team he is a part of. That’s an influence the Panthers undoubtedly wouldn’t mind having around their young players.

It seems unlikely that the arrival of Jagr makes the difference between making and missing the postseason for the Panthers. That doesn’t necessarily make it a bad idea, but expectations should be held in check.

Statistics courtesy of NHL.com and BehindtheNet.ca. 

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.