Dave Lozo's Bag Skate: If Anyone Should Tank for Connor McDavid, It's Columbus
Get on the Columbus Tank
Tanking for Connor McDavid (scroll down for the latest) is something no team will ever admit it is doing, and in all honesty, none of them are actively, intentionally doing it. Anyone will tell you what a destructive force losing like that can be to your organization, to your locker-room culture and to your fanbase.
Besides, in the case of the Sabres and Hurricanes, drafting McDavid won't be an instant fix.
TOP NEWS
Sens' Pick in Updated Mock Draft
Latest Stanley Cup Playoffs Bracket ✍️
Who Should Go No. 1 at This Year's Draft? 🤔
But in the case of the Columbus Blue Jackets, it makes all the sense in the world.
For your consideration, the 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs of the NBA. From 1989 to 1995, the Spurs averaged 52 wins a season and were a perennial playoff team. But during the '96-97 season, the Spurs lost David Robinson and Sean Elliott to season-ending injuries, as Robinson played only six games and Elliott 39.
The Spurs finished with the third-worst record that season. They won the draft lottery, selected Tim Duncan first overall and have won five championships over the past 17 seasons.
Sound familiar?
The Jackets haven't been hit with an injury sledgehammer, but they are dying a death of a million paper cuts.
Nathan Horton may not play again this season or maybe ever again. Ryan Murray has only played four games this season and, according to Chris Peters of CBSSports.com, reportedly had a setback in his recovery from a knee injury that cost him the start of this season. Sergei Bobrovsky and James Wisniewski have broken fingers. Brandon Dubinsky had abdominal surgery.
It has all conspired to sink the Blue Jackets to 28th in the standings entering Tuesday's games.
Horton excluded, the Blue Jackets have been lucky (unlucky in this context) to not lose anyone for the season yet. It would probably take a Ryan Johansen season-ending injury for the Blue Jackets to find themselves in a bottom-two spot and vying for McDavid in the lottery.
But imagine a healthy Blue Jackets team in 2015-16 with McDavid-Johansen-Dubinsky down the middle. They'd be favorites to come out of the East next season.
Unlike the Spurs, the Blue Jackets haven't been a playoff lock in recent years. But they're a young team on the rise, and if they added a generational talent at the draft the way the Spurs did, championships could begin flowing through Columbus in the coming years.
It's one thing to tank when you're bad; it's another to do so as a result of injuries. And as the Spurs showed, it can be a catalyst toward a dynasty.
Quote of the Week: Jon Cooper vs. Darryl Sutter
(Lightning coach Jon Cooper and Kings coach Darryl Sutter are the two most quotable coaches in the NHL. Each week, we will let you decide who had the best quote.)
I can read Darryl Sutter quotes all day. The one I've nominated this week is pretty good, but it's the setup and parenthetical that pushed it over the top.
As always, it's from Jon Rosen of L.A. Kings Insider, and this one is about facing Hurricanes coach Bill Peters, with the entire exchange included.
"On whether he has any relationship with Carolina coach and fellow Albertan Bill Peters:
Don’t know him. [Reporter: From the Western League, I know he was the Spokane coach. You ever come across when you were in Calgary? Very little?] I said I don’t know him. I’m probably 20 years older than him. The Western League’s a hundred years old, isn’t it?
"
"I said I don't know him."
For the record, Peters is 18 years younger than Sutter, and the Western Hockey League was founded in 1966.
And now, it's time for Jon Cooper to step in and get obliterated again.
Ha, I get it. Because you could ask to be better. You could ask to be 9-2-1, or 10-1-1, or 11-1-0, or 11-0-1, or...
Look, it was an off-week for Cooper. He's better after a loss or when things are going poorly. So root for bad things to happen to the Lightning so we can all chuckle once a week.
Why are the Capitals still bad?
Before the season, I hemmed and hawed on predictions that people forgot about eight seconds after they read them. "Who do I give the final playoff spot in the East? Capitals or Rangers?"
After surmising that the Caps got better by adding Brooks Orpik, Matt Niskanen and Barry Trotz and the Rangers got worse by losing Brad Richards, Anton Stralman and Benoit Pouliot, I gave the nod to the Caps.
The Rangers have been predictably unimpressive so far, but man, so have the Caps.
But why? Why are the Capitals (4-5-2) still not winning more than they are losing?
The Capitals are fourth in the NHL in Fenwick close at 54.5 percent, this after they were 25th at 47.5 percent last season.
The Capitals have the second-best power play at 29 percent (11-for-38), this after they were second at 23.4 percent last season.
The problem at this point is goaltending, as Braden Holtby (.899) and Justin Peters (.880) aren't stopping as many pucks as they have in the past. Holtby is 19 points below his career save percentage, while Peters is 22 points below his.
With a .903 save percentage in five-on-five close situations, the Capitals rank 26th. The Capitals have a PDO of 98.7, which ranks 23rd.
The Capitals are controlling the puck, scoring at a ridiculous rate on the power play and are healthy.
If this start doesn't scream bad luck, I don't know what does. They should be fine.
KHL Thing of the Week
(There is some quality hockey that is played overseas that we rarely hear about in North America. This section will highlight that or something else from our friends playing hockey in the KHL.)
Ryan Whitney made his KHL debut this week. He scored a goal. That should give everyone a sense of the quality of hockey in the KHL.
Here's the goal:
I don't pretend to be a KHL expert. But I won't sit here and tell you that a league that has a team that allows Whitney to sneak to the crease for a tap-in goal is legitimate in any way.
Whitney has two goals and one assist in three games for Sochi.
Hockey is fun, and as long as Whitney is having fun in the KHL and making money that can't be taxed by the American government, good for him.
But boy is the KHL a bad league.
When do we start worrying about the Kings?
Probably, never. But their start seems to be about more than just a team coming off three consecutive deep playoff runs getting off to a sluggish start.
The line of Jeff Carter, Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli, referred to by many as That Line That Has Three Guys with Numbers in the 70s, has 18 goals in 12 games.
The rest of the Kings have nine goals in 12 games. Of those nine goals, seven are from forwards.
The Kings, usually a top team in any possession metric, are 24th in Fenwick close at 47.5 percent. With a PDO of 101.7, they've actually been getting their fair share of breaks and unsustainable goaltending from Jonathan Quick, who has a .939 save percentage overall.
Marian Gaborik (shocking) has missed 10 games, and Anze Kopitar has missed the team's past three games, all losses. So it's not as though this is a full-strength Kings team off to a somewhat slow 6-4-2 start.
Last season, the Kings were 30-22-6 before finishing the season 16-6-2 and winning a second Stanley Cup in three years. They were also down (look away, Sharks fans) 3-0 to the Sharks in the first round before winning four straight.
So to answer the bold-faced question above, we start worrying when the Kings are down a goal in a playoff elimination game and there are 30 seconds left. And even then, they've probably got a plan.
Who Is Connor McDavid-ing This Week?
The tank battle for Connor McDavid will be quite the scene this season as teams stumble over each other to finish last in the standings, thus guaranteeing either McDavid or future American hero Jack Eichel.
Here's how it's looking entering Tuesday:
1. Carolina Hurricanes (2-6-2, 6 pts)
After losing their first eight games, the Hurricanes finally hit a bump in the road of an almost-perfect season this weekend. They won back-to-back home games against the Coyotes and defending champion Kings, the former in embarrassingly easy fashion.
As much as we regular people think it's easy for teams to just throw themselves on the ice and motivate themselves to lose, it can be trying at times. With a home-and-home against the hard-charging Blue Jackets this week, it's time for rare consecutive measuring-stick games in November.
2. Buffalo Sabres (3-9-1, 7 pts)
What are the Sabres doing? Down a goal late to the Red Wings on Sunday, Chris Stewart scored a third-period goal to tie the score, then the Sabres scored two shootouts goals to snatch two points from the jaws of a regulation defeat. The Sabres earned three of eight points last week. Is that bad? It sure it is. But is it a sign they are beginning to turn things around? It could be the start of a worrisome upward trend with three home games this week.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets (4-7-0, 8 pts)
With so many bottom-feeding teams winning this week, the Blue Jackets took advantage by keeping a five-game losing streak alive by blowing a third-period lead in New Jersey to lose in regulation Saturday.
With so many injuries, the Blue Jackets have become something of a dark horse in the McDavid/Eichel sweepstakes, but their dedication to losing will be put to the test in their showdowns with Carolina on Tuesday and Friday. It's must-not-watch viewing for hockey fans.
Goal of the Week
It was one of the latest entries this past week, but there was none better than this one from Vladimir Tarasenko.
There is something to be said for degree of difficulty, as Tarasenko knifed through Michael Kostka, Dylan McIlrath and Tanner Glass, three players who really shouldn't be in the NHL, but that's the leader in the clubhouse for goal of the year.
Questions and Answers
(Got a question? Tweet me @davelozo or email me at dave111177@gmail.com, but please don't call before 9 a.m. I will answer any of your questions about hockey or whatever if it's a good question.)
Florida. The three California teams are good and do well enough financially. People watch the Lightning, so that leaves the Florida Panthers. Whether it's the fact the team is bad and no one is coming to watch it or that rising ocean levels will sink Florida in 50 years, the team in Sunrise is doomed.
I'm going to say he's back tonight, because Chip Alexander of the News & Observer says he's back tonight. It's hard to say how much of this poor start is the fault of Alexander Semin, who has two points in eight games. In terms of Fenwick, Semin is at 53.7 percent in all five-on-five situations but 45.5 percent in five-on-five close situations.
Semin only has 63:47 of close time this season, so while 45.5 isn't encouraging, the sample size is small.
Maybe it was a slump. Maybe being a healthy scratch will be good for him. We'll see starting tonight.
Having seen neither McDavid nor Eichel play live, I can say without question that McDavid will have a better NHL career. McDavid has better stats in a better league, and that's all you need. Watching the games is overrated. Just give me stat sheets every time.
But really, I don't know.
Ryan O'Reilly is top-five in Fenwick, both close and overall, on an Avalanche team that is a sinkhole beneath quicksand hovering outside a black hole of possession. He has two goals and eight points in 13 games this season after a career-high 28 goals and 64 points last season.
The gentlemanly O'Reilly is 23 years old and still has a couple years before he hits unrestricted free agency. He plays in all three phases. He's routinely above 50 percent in faceoffs.
So if the Avs do eventually trade O'Reilly, it should be for everything. Like, when you're really hungry and you sit down at a restaurant and point at the menu and say, "I'll have everything." That's what the Avs should do to someone's roster.
"@drosennhl @DaveLozo As a Blues fan I've always loved him but what do you think the ceiling is on Tarasenko because right now he's on fire!
— Brian Bohn (@BCBohn) November 4, 2014"
This is clearly anecdotal and coming from a guy who was using Twitter, eating popcorn and checking the score of Colts-Giants at the same time, but when I was at MSG on Monday watching that game, there were times when I thought Vladimir Tarasenko looked like Evgeni Malkin.
When Tarasenko gets the puck high in the zone, especially on the right side, it feels like he is two strides and a snap of the wrists from scoring. When he has the puck down low, he protects it so well and has the ability to make the pass through the box or use his strength to step into the box and make a play.
He'll never win a Richard Trophy as long as he's in the same league as Steven Stamkos and Alex Ovechkin, but Tarasenko has James Neal-type potential, only on a more consistent basis. I'd say his ceiling is 40 goals and 80 points.
The Habs are Fenwick'ing at 48.3 percent, according to Hockey-Reference.com, so a 1-2-1 stretch over the past four games in which they've been outshot 123-93 speaks to that.
The question that will be answered in the next week or so will be: Are the Habs a below-average possession team, skating by on shooting luck and goaltending, or is this just a lull?
Montreal ranked 22nd in Fenwick close last season at 48.4 percent. They theoretically upgraded their possession game by swapping Daniel Briere for P.A. Parenteau and signing Tom Gilbert, but it hasn't been the case through one-seventh of the season.
If the Habs continue to falter in November, it may become evident, or at least possible, that it's more of a Michel Therrien problem than a roster problem.
All statistics via NHL.com, Hockey-Reference.com or stats.hockeyanalysis.com.
Dave Lozo covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveLozo.
.jpg?w=600 "Vrabel Seeking Counseling")
