Military Bowl 2011: Why Air Force Will Pound Their Way to Victory over Toledo

The Air Force Falcons are going to run their way to a dominant victory over Toledo in the 2011 Military Bowl, to be played at 4:30 pm ET on December 28. 

The Falcons carry the burden of representing the military in this bowl. This game was supposed to feature Navy, but they were not bowl eligible. Army was not bowl eligible either.

That leaves Air Force to win some military pride this postseason, and they will not disappoint.

An Offensive Showdown

Air Force ranks 65th in points allowed this season. Toledo is 89th. These teams like to give up points, and they both win with offense. That means whichever team is better prepared to exploit the other's weakness will be victorious.

Toledo runs a spread option offense, and they feature a balanced attack. They ranked 29th in passing yards and 14th in rushing yards. 

Air Force is not at all balanced. They run the triple option and rely heavily on the run. They finished the season second in rushing yards and 113th in passing yards. 

Both offenses are going to be a load for their opposition to handle. Whichever team can get just a few stops will be victorious. 

The Falcons are in a better position to get a few stops. 

Unfamiliarity with Opponent

The triple option is a dying offense. Just a handful of teams run this offense, and none of those teams were on the Toledo schedule. 

Toledo has had plenty of time to practice for this attack, but they have no way of simulating Air Force's efficiency in the triple option. 

The speed and fluidity with which the Falcons run this attack is going to catch a Toledo team that is ill-prepared to handle it. 

One of Toledo's weaknesses is tackling. This is an ominous weakness to have playing a team that runs the option. This will lead to a ton of yards after contact for the Falcons, making it easy for them to keep the sticks moving. 

Battle Tested 

Toledo played a much softer schedule than Air Force. The Falcons had tough games against TCU, Notre Dame and Boise State. 

Meanwhile, Toledo's schedule only offered Ohio State and Boise State. These two lost all five of these games, but there is definitely something to be learned here, specifically in the game against their common opponent, Boise State. 

Toledo was destroyed in that game 40-15, while Air Force posted a respectable showing with a 37-26 loss.  

The Nail in the Coffin

Air Force is a more physical team, and they are going to consistently get positive yards with their running game. 

This is going to lead to them controlling the ball and keeping Toledo from finding a rhythm. This will provide them an opportunity to get enough stops to come out victorious. 

Air Force win, 42-30.