California vs. Texas: Last-Minute Spread, Line and More for 2011 Holiday Bowl

The 2011 Holiday Bowl features two teams both looking to end their seasons with eight wins.

The California Golden Bears (7-5, 4-5) and the Texas Longhorns (7-5, 4-5) both had down years that could end on very high notes. 

Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA

When: Wednesday, December 28th, 8:00 PM ET

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3.com

Listen: Cal Golden Bears—KGO 810 AM. Texas Longhorns—104.9 FM The Horn

Betting Line: Longhorns -3, O/U 48

Key Storyline: Does a loss by the Texas Longhorns mean that Mack Brown should worry about his job security in Austin? 

Injuries for California 

LB David Wilkerson is probable with a knee injury. The injury kept Wilkerson out against Arizona State in Week 13. 

WR Michael Calvin is probable with a leg injury. Calvin sat out Cal’s last game after suffering the leg injury in Week 12 against Stanford. 

LB Chris McCain is probable with a concussion that's sidelined him since Week 10. 

Injuries for Texas

S Blake Gideon is probable with a hand injury, and should play against Cal. 

RB Malcolm Brown is probable with turf toe, which caused him to miss the Longhorns’ last game against Baylor.

RB Joe Bergeron is probable with a hamstring injury. Bergeron missed the Baylor game, but should play against Cal. 

What it Means for California 

A win for California would be the perfect way to end their season on a hot streak.

Coming into this bowl game, Cal has won three of their last four games. In two of those wins, the Bears' defense gave up only seven and six points. 

What it Means for Texas

A win for Texas would end another disappointing season for Longhorn fans.

They came into this season with the hopes of returning to a BCS bowl game. Instead, they will finish their second straight year with less than 10 wins. 

What They're Saying

California: From The Daily Californian, Jonathan Kuperberg takes a look at Cal's 2004 season:

"

Jeff Tedford remains, as does Brown, but not much else is the same for the teams. Instead of fighting over “The Granddaddy of Them All” with nearly spotless records, they are matched up in a middle tier bowl with 10 losses collectively. Nevertheless, the squads look to be evenly matched; they have identical records this season, both going 7-5 overall and 4-5 in conference play.

“2004 is a long time ago. I don’t remember much about it except for feeling like there was a great opportunity there,” Tedford said in a statement. “We all felt like we were going to the Rose Bowl. However it unfolded, we were left scratching our heads as to how that happened. But that was a long time ago. I felt bad for our team because I really felt like we deserved to be in the Rose Bowl that year, but we’re in 2011 now and it is a whole different situation.”

"

Texas: From the Austin American Statesman, Mark Rosner takes a look at Longhorns' running back Brown and his road to recovery from turf toe. 

"

Freshman Malcolm Brown's turf toe injury is healed, but he has practiced with a brace on the right knee that he injured against Texas A&M. Freshman Joe Bergeron's hamstring has been rehabilitated. Fozzy Whittaker is still gone, his right knee claimed by an injury on Nov. 12 at Missouri.

The Longhorns have 25 days between their final regular-season game at Baylor and the Holiday Bowl.

"The nice thing about the bowl game is you have time. Guys have an opportunity to get themselves healthy," Bryan Harsin, co-offensive coordinator, said last week. "Everybody is on the field."

"

California Player to Watch: Isi Sofele 

The junior running back carried Cal this year to their 7-5 record.

In Sofele’s last four games, he has carried the ball between 21 and 23 times in each game, had 569 yards and three touchdowns. 

Sofele will get the ball a lot against a Texas rushing defense that ranked first in the Big 12, only allowing 1,244 rushing yards with 3.3 yards per carry. The Longhorns only allowed 14 rushing touchdowns, which ranked first in the Big 12. 

Texas Player to Watch: Malcolm Brown

The talented freshman running back was bitten by the injury bug a lot this year.

However, when he was healthy, Brown was one of the best players on the team. 

On the year, Brown had three games of over 100 rushing yards, and Brown was able to finish with five touchdowns. 

If Brown is truly at 100 percent, he gives the Longhorns a huge advantage on offense. 

Key Matchup: Isi Sofele vs. Longhorns’ Rushing Defense

Texas has done a great job in keeping opposing running backs from ripping their team.

However, Cal brings in a running game that ranked 48th this year averaging 167 yards per game. 

It will be interesting to see which side of the ball wins out in this bowl game. Can Texas’ rushing defense withstand the constant pounding of Sofele and this Golden Bears offensive line? 

Prediction

These two teams are evenly matched. Both teams are looking for their ninth win of the year, with both teams averaging between 28-29 points per game, while holding teams to 23-24 points per game. 

However, because of the Longhorns’ relentless rushing defense, they will prevail in this bowl game. The game will be close, but the Longhorns will pull away with a touchdown in the final minutes.

Though the line is Horns by 3, you should see Texas win this game by four points or more.

Texas 24 - California 20

Follow @tjmcaloon