Boston Red Sox: 5 Factors to Help Decide Between Hiroki Kuroda and Gavin Floyd

As year end approaches and starting pitcher options dwindle for the Red Sox (as well as the Yankees), two names are cropping up more and more in the rumor mills for both teams: Hiroki Kuroda and Gavin Floyd.

Kuroda is a free agent, having pitched the last four years for the Dodgers. Gavin Floyd is still under contract to the White Sox, but word out of the Windy City is that he may well be traded now that Chicago has signed John Danks to an extension.

The next few slides will outline a few variables to help you armchair GMs out there decide which pitcher you would prefer to have on your team.

Durability and Long-Term Upside

Gavin Floyd will be 29 in January; Kuroda will be 37 in February.

Floyd, an Annapolis, Md. native, was selected fourth by the Phillies in the 2001 amateur draft (For trivia buffs, the next person drafted after Floyd was fellow Mount Saint Joseph High School graduate Mark Teixeira.).

Floyd is an imposing 6'6" tall, weighing in at around 240. Kuroda is big for a Japanese pitcher (6'1", 190).

Neither appears to be dealing with injuries at this point, although Kuroda did spend time on the DL in 2009. In August, he was hit in the head by a line drive hit by Arizona's Rusty Ryal, but miraculously escaped serious injury.

Later in that season, a slightly bulging disk in his neck sidelined him for the opening round of the playoffs.

Floyd has apparently been pretty healthy his entire career.

Bottom line: Both are workhorses. Floyd has the edge for the future because of his youth and injury-free career to date.

Past Performance

In his four years with the Dodgers, Kuroda hurled 699 innings, and he averaged more than six innings per start. His ERA has been 3.45 over that span, and his ERA+ (adjusted for the ballpark he pitches in) is more than 114 (league average is 100).

In his last four years with Chicago, Floyd threw 780.1 innings, also averaging more than six innings per start. His ERA for the same period has been 4.09, with an ERA+ of 109. He has made 125 starts in four years, compared with Kuroda's 115.

Floyd has averaged about seven strikeouts per nine innings pitched, while Kuroda has averaged 6.7. On the other hand, Kuroda issues fewer walks (2.1/9 to Floyd's 2.7/9), although Floyd did have his best control year in 2011, walking only 2.1/9.

In 2011, Kuroda posted a 13-16 record in 32 starts, pitching 202 innings while posting an ERA and WHIP of 3.07 and 1.213.

Floyd went 12-13 in 31 starts, and produced a 4.37 ERA and a WHIP of 1.162 while working in 193.2 innings (Delving deeper into his ERA, he allowed a disproportionately high [35 percent] of baserunners to score in 2011. He should be able to better that ratio in the future, which would also lower his ERA.).

Bottom line: Performance-wise, there is little to differentiate the two pitchers, either for the 2011 season or for the past four years. The final decision as to which man fits the Red Sox better will have to be decided by other factors.

Pitching in the AL East

Given Floyd's years pitching for the White Sox, he definitely has the experience of pitching against the AL's strongest teams every year.

Kuroda has compiled most of his numbers against the relatively weak-hitting National League West. He has only pitched once in his career against the Yankees and Red Sox.

Chances are that Kuroda's ERA would go up if he came to Boston or New York.

On the other hand, Floyd has pitched inconsistently against the AL East. He has done very well against the Rays (2.57 ERA) and the Red Sox (3.47 ERA, 2.84 at Fenway); however, his career ERA against New York is 5.98, and he has particularly struggled against Toronto (7.26 ERA).

Bottom line: We know that Floyd probably won't buckle under the pressure of the AL East, but his performance against those teams has been spotty.

Kuroda's ability to pitch in Boston or New York is a big question mark. There would be a big edge to Boston here, however, because Bobby Valentine's years of experience dealing with Japanese pitchers would be a stabilizing force for Kuroda.

Contractual Terms and Money

Floyd was the fourth pick overall of the 2001 draft (Philadelphia Phillies). After the 2006 season, the Phillies dealt him (along with Gio Gonzalez) to the White Sox in the Freddy Garcia trade.

Interestingly enough, Gonzalez is still linked to Floyd five years later, since the prospect haul the Nationals just gave up for Gonzales will certainly affect Chicago's thinking in any trade for Floyd.

(The Mat Latos deal also doesn't help any Floyd suitors in their efforts to low-ball the White Sox.)

After a great 2008 season (17-8, 3.48 ERA) and a decent 2009, the White Sox signed Floyd to a four-year, $15.5 million deal. He is guaranteed $7 million in 2012, and there is a team option for $9.5 million in 2013.

Kuroda earned $11.7 million in 2011 and is now a free agent. Andrew Marchand of ESPN.com predicts that "Kuroda figures to receive at least $12 million on a one-year deal."

Kuroda will undoubtedly seek a multi-year deal, but at his age, he does not have a lot of leverage to force that.

As a result, Kuroda may be a slightly better fit for a risk-averse GM because he definitely won't be a long-term commitment.

Bottom line: Either player could conceivably be dropped after one year if it doesn't work out. But a team might be reluctant to cut ties with the younger Floyd, even after a bad year.

From a strictly contract perspective, Kuroda seems to be a better bet for the Yankees, and Floyd for the Red Sox.

Intangibles, and the Japan Factor

Last summer, the Red Sox expressed interest in Kuroda at the trading deadline, but the Japanese pitcher told the Dodgers he would not waive his no-trade clause. He clearly stated that he did not want to go to an East Coast team.

This year, things are different. The Dodgers signed left-handed Chris Capuano for two years and $10 million, sending a clear message they were unwilling to entertain Kuroda's expected salary demands. As a result, Kuroda has reconsidered his position.

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the potential landing places for Kuroda are "wide open," and he is willing to consider all offers, regardless of location.

On the other hand, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that Hiroki Kuroda "still has some desire to stay out West."

This is one aspect in which the Red Sox have a significant advantage over the Yankees. New Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine's years of experience managing in Japan, and his understanding and appreciation of the Japanese culture may be the deciding factor should Kuroda have to choose between the two powerhouses of the AL East.

There is another intangible to consider, however.

Tom Verducci wrote a superb article for Sports Illustrated detailing a characteristic shared by Japanese starters who come to pitch in MLB. He calls this phenomenon the "Third-Year Wall."

Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine told Verducci, "The anecdotal assessment suggests starting pitchers have a two-year window of success followed by a rapid decline, followed thereafter by disappearance. Even a lot of the relievers have had success quickly, reaching a hot peak followed by a rapid decline."

Hideo Nomo was the first to hit the Third-Year Wall. In his first two seasons, he was 29-17 with a 2.90 ERA. In his third year, his ERA rose to 4.25. He was traded in year four and released in year five.

"He became a journeyman with the occasional comeback season," added Verducci. "His ERA after hitting The Wall was 4.61."

Verducci solidifies his argument by pointing out that since 1995, there have been nine pitchers from Japan, including Nomo, who have made 40 starts in the big leagues. All have posted career ERAs between 4.24 and 5.72—except for one, who has an ERA of 3.45.

Hiroki Kuroda.

Dodgers GM Ned Collettii told Verducci that he believes Kuroda avoided the "Third-Year Wall" because he committed himself to becoming part of the new culture and adapting to American (as well as MLB) ways.

Kuroda brought his family with him from the beginning, enrolled his children in English-speaking schools and set up year-round residency in Southern California. 

"There was an adjustment period early on for him," Colletti said. "[But] he was coming here not just to pitch but to set up his family in a new country. It took not only his willingness, but also his family's willingness."

Bottom Line: Kuroda has already successfully avoided most of the performance pitfalls that have befallen most of the pitchers from Japan. That intangible should not be a factor.

Bobby Valentine may help him overcome his reluctance to move across country and pitch in the AL East.

The fact that Kuroda can probably be signed for a one-year deal might be of interest to GM Ben Cherington, who wants to get back under the luxury tax threshold by 2013.