Indiana Hoosiers Basketball: Projecting IU's Big Ten Record Game by Game

Tom Crean's Indiana Hoosiers are off to the best start in Bloomington since Bobby Knight led IU to a perfect 32-0 record and a National Championship in 1976.

The last undefeated team in college basketball history produced four first round draft picks over the next two years, including National Player of the Year Scott May (second overall pick), Quinn Buckner (seventh overall pick), Bob Wilkerson (11th overall pick) and Kent Benson (first overall pick in 1977).

Any comparisons between this year's Indiana team and the '76 team come to a grinding halt after their shared 12-0 starts to open the season.

The '76 team entered the season as the odds-on favorite to win the National Championship after going 31-1 the year prior.  The 1975 Hoosiers lost to Kentucky by two points in the NCAA tournament after Scott May (First Team All-American) broke his arm during the final week of the Big Ten season.

While this 2011-12 group was expected to improve upon last year's 12-win campaign, no one (including their head coach) could have predicted a 12-0 start that included a win over the No. 1-ranked Kentucky Wildcats.

6'11" freshman Cody Zeller has somehow managed to exceed his sky-high preseason expectations while impacting a program unlike any other freshman in America.

Most analysts predicted the Hoosiers were still a year away from competing on a national level as they awaited the arrival of the second ranked recruiting class in the nation according to Rivals.com.  

Fortunately for Hoosier fans, the team that was supposed to signify the return of IU basketball arrived one year early.

Let's take a look at Indiana's upcoming Big Ten schedule and project how the Hoosiers will fare.

12/28 at Michigan State

The 17th-ranked Hoosiers will travel to East Lansing to square off with the 19th-ranked Michigan State Spartans in their Big Ten season opener next week.

IU could be without their fifth leading scorer and sixth man, sophomore Will Sheehey (10.7 points), who rolled his ankle stepping on a basketball two days ago.

Meanwhile, senior guard Verdell Jones III (8.4 points, 3.5 assists) suffered a hip flexor in last night's game versus UMBC and is listed as day to day.

Finally, junior forward Derek Elston (5.9 points, .585 field goal percentage) will be available for the Big Ten opener after having surgery to repair a broken nose suffered in practice earlier this week.

IU hasn't won at Michigan State since 1991 (16 straight losses) and Draymond Green's elevated level of play will simply be too much for the Hoosiers to overcome on the road.

Considering the injuries to three of their top seven players, I don't anticipate IU being able to steal a win in East Lansing.

Projection:  L (0-1) 

12/31 vs Ohio State

Things don't get any easier for the Hoosiers on New Year's Eve as the potential National Player of the Year Jared Sullinger and the second ranked Ohio State Buckeyes invade Assembly Hall.

Although we can't accurately forecast the health of Will Sheehey and Verdell Jones III today, early indications point towards Sheehey not being ready for this one considering he was in a walking boot and on crutches as of last night.

The Hoosiers are still one year away from trotting out enough top tier talent to match up with the likes of Sullinger, DeShaun Thomas, William Buford, and Aaron Craft.

Projection:  L (0-2)

1/5 vs Michigan

Nearing full strength from a health standpoint, the Hoosiers get their first Big Ten win versus the 20th-ranked Michigan Wolverines in Assembly Hall.

Possibly the only team in the country to begin conference play with three straight games against ranked opponents, a 1-2 start for the Hoosiers in Big Ten play should not send their fans into panic mode.

According to Jeff Sagarin's NCAA Basketball Ratings, the Big Ten is the top ranked conference as of today, and any team that finishes at .500 or better will almost certainly get an invite to the Big Dance.

Projection:  W (1-2)

1/8 at Penn State

Considered to be one of the bottom three teams in the Big Ten, Penn State is led by junior guard Tim Frazier and his his 17.2 point scoring average.  

The Hoosiers shouldn't have too many problems securing their first conference road win of the season against the Nittany Lions.  

Projection:  W (2-2)

1/12 vs Minnesota

The Golden Gophers may be 12-1 on the season, but they have yet to face a ranked team and their lone loss was to Dayton by 16 points.

Preseason First Team All-Big Ten player Trevor Mbakwe's season, and most likely his career at Minnesota, is over after tearing the ACL in his right knee last month.

Expect the Hoosiers to win this game handily in front of the home crowd.

Projection:  W (3-2)

1/15 at Ohio State

Although the Hoosiers should be healthier for their second game with the Buckeyes, the change in venue will not be to their advantage.

The game in Columbus will serve as a true measuring stick for a team that has struggled to win on the road in Big Ten play during the Tom Crean era.

The Hoosiers have compiled an embarrassing 1-26 conference road record during Crean's first three seasons.

Projection:  L (3-3)

1/18 at Nebraska

Indiana will travel to Nebraska for their first-ever Big Ten meeting with the Cornhuskers.

Expected to be one of the bottom three teams in the Big Ten, Nebraska is led by senior guard Bo Spencer and his 16 point average.

The Hoosiers should not have much trouble in this one as they pick up their second conference road win of the season.  

Projection:  W (4-3)

1/22 vs Penn State

Unless Talor Battle is granted a fifth year of eligibility, the Hoosier reserves should see plenty of action in this one.  

Interesting side note:  Battle is the only player in the history of the Big Ten to accumulate 2,000 points, 500 rebounds, and 500 assists.

Projection:  W (5-3)

1/26 at Wisconsin

The 13th ranked Wisconsin Badgers have been nearly unbeatable at home under head coach Bo Ryan, and unfortunately for the Hoosiers, their lone matchup will take place in Madison this season.

Senior guard Jordan Taylor, a First Team Preseason All-American, has gotten off to a slow start this year, averaging just 11.8 points after scoring at an 18.1 points-per-game clip last season.

Nonetheless, the Badgers should hold serve at home while handing the Hoosiers their fourth loss in conference play.

Projection:  L (5-4)

1/29 vs Iowa

The Iowa Hawkeyes will be one of three teams fighting for last place in the Big Ten this year.  They are led by senior guard Matt Gatens and his 14 point scoring average.

After finishing the first half of the Big Ten season at 5-4, the Hoosiers will start the second half of the conference season with a home win.

Projection:  W (6-4)

2/1 at Michigan

The Hoosiers go on the road to face a Michigan team seeking revenge from their earlier matchup in Bloomington.

Look for sophomore guard Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke (the second best freshman in the Big Ten) to take over during crunch time in Ann Arbor.

Projection:  L (6-5)

2/4 at Purdue

The Hoosiers head to West Lafayette for a date with their biggest rival, the Purdue Boilermakers.

Purdue is led by senior forward Robbie Hummel, who despite averaging 17.5 points per game, is shooting a dismal .421 percent from the field.

With Purdue's all time leading scoring duo JaJuan Johnson and E'twaun Moore now in the NBA, head coach Matt Painter is now forced to do a lot more with a lot less.

Purdue has just three players averaging in double figures and only Hummel averages more than 11 points per game. 

Look for Purdue to play their best game of the year at home against their top rival to eke out a victory over the Hoosiers.

Projection:  L (6-6)

2/9 vs Illinois

This is the point of the season where Hoosier fans will probably start to panic as IU is sitting at just 6-6 in conference play.  

But as a result of facing an extremely front-loaded schedule, Tom Crean's bunch will have the opportunity to close the season on a big run.

The Hoosiers and the Fighting Illini only square off once this season, and fortunately for IU, the matchup will take place in the real Assembly Hall (the one that holds 17,456).

The 25th ranked Illini are much better than people anticipated this season, led by junior guard D.J. Richardson and 7'1" sophomore center Meyers Leonard.  

If Leonard is able to neutralize Cody Zeller on the low block, this game could end up getting a little uncomfortable for Hoosier fans down the stretch.  

Expect a close one in Bloomington as IU enters into the home stretch of a late season push for an invite to the Big Dance.

Projection:  W (7-6)

2/15 vs Northwestern

Northwestern is 10-2 to start the season, with both losses coming against ranked opponents—eighth-ranked Baylor and 21st-ranked Creighton.

They are led by one of the best players in America, 6'9" senior forward John Shurna.  Shurna is the leading scorer in the Big Ten—averaging 19.4 points, six rebounds, and nearly three assists per game on the year.

What most people don't realize is the Wildcats also boast the second leading scorer in the Big Ten—6'5" junior swingman Drew Crawford.

Crawford is averaging 18.1 points, five rebounds, and 2.5 assists on the season.

Northwestern will keep this game close due to their style of play, but with two players who combine for more than half of the Wildcat's offense, the Hoosiers will take care of business at home.

Projection:  W (8-6)

2/18 at Iowa

IU improves to 3-5 on the road in the Big Ten with their second win of the season over the Hawkeyes.

Projection:  W (9-6)

2/25 at Minnesota

After winning an out of conference game versus NC Central, the Hoosiers will be sitting at 22-6 overall and 9-6 in Big Ten play with three games left.  

I'm fairly certain IU fans would gladly accept that type of record after 28 games had I presented this scenario to them prior to the start of the season.

Having won four games in a row, the Hoosiers travel to "The Barn", a venue where they seemingly never play well—expect that trend to continue in 2012.

Projection:  L (9-7)

2/28 vs Michigan State

The Hoosiers get their revenge at home with a win over a good Spartans team.

Projection:  W (10-7)

3/4 vs Purdue

The Hoosiers finally break their losing streak to the Boilermakers and win a game that will signify a changing of the college basketball guard in the Hoosier state.

If they aren't already, IU will once again be considered the best basketball team in the state of Indiana for years to come.  

Head coach Tom Crean has done an incredible job resurrecting an extremely proud program from the depths of hell while restoring a tradition of winning basketball. 

Crean will forever be credited with putting IU basketball back on top in the state of Indiana while making Bloomington the premiere destination for the many talented in-state recruits once again. 

Projection W (11-7)

End of Season Projection

Final Record:  25-8 (1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament)

Big Ten Record:  11-7 (4th place)

Big Ten Tournament:  4th seed (first round bye), Quarterfinals W, Semi-Finals L

NCAA Tournament:  5 seed, First Round W, 2nd Round L

The Hoosiers complete the 2011-12 season with a 26-9 final record and one NCAA tournament win under their belt.  

This projected finish wildly exceeds all preseason expectations for the 2012 Indiana basketball team and will undoubtedly serve as a springboard heading into the 2012-13 season.  

Next year Tom Crean will welcome one of the nation's top recruiting classes and the Hoosiers will likely enter the 2012 preseason rankings in the top 10.

And after four long years we can finally say with confidence, the Hoosiers are back.