Minnesota Vikings: Top 5 Scenarios for Their First Pick in the 2012 Draft

The Minnesota Vikings have only had four top three picks in the NFL draft in their history. As the miserable 2011 season winds down, they are all but assured to to get their fifth. The Vikings are on the road at Washington on Christmas Eve and host the Bears on the last day of the season—and at this point. most of their faithful fans are hoping for losses to secure the highest draft pick possible.

With the Indianapolis Colts picking up their first win of the season last weekend, the Vikings still have a shot at the No. 1 pick in the draft. If the Vikings win both of their remaining games they could end up picking as low as sixth, if Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Jacksonville all lose both of their remaining games.

With not much else to look forward to, Minnesota fans have already begun to dream of better days, which starts with adding a blue chip prospect at the top of the 2012 draft. Here are the top five scenarios for the Vikings' first pick in next spring's draft.

No. 1 Pick: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Though a long shot, if the Colts were to somehow win another game and the Vikings lose out and end up having a weaker strength of schedule than the Colts (and the Rams if they lose out), the Vikings could get their first No. 1 pick in the NFL draft since 1968.

Even if the Colts, Vikings and Rams all end up with two wins, the Colts will more than likely still get the No. 1 pick, as their opponents winning percentage is sitting around 53 percent, while the Vikings hold a slight edge over the Rams at 57 percent to 59 percent.

However unlikely, if the Vikings were fortunate enough to land the No. 1 pick, it would be a no-brainer, slam dunk: you draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

You don't get cute and trade the pick for more picks later in the draft or for future years. You draft Andrew Luck and rebuild the team around him. You then trade Christian Ponder for whatever you can get for him at this point. There will be plenty of teams looking for quarterback help next season and you would hope Ponder would be attractive enough to get perhaps a player and a pick.

Nobody knows how Ponder's career will turn out at this point, but he will never be as good as Luck. Luck is the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, and arguably the best prospect ever. He is the closest thing we've seen to a sure thing franchise player since Manning.

If your options are to have Christian Ponder at quarterback and Matt Kalil at left tackle vs. having Andrew Luck and whoever at left tackle, you take Luck and whoever every time.

No. 2 Pick: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

In the 1968 NFL draft the Vikings had the No. 1 overall pick and selected left tackle Ron Yary out of Southern Cal. That worked out pretty well for Minnesota as the Hall of Famer anchored the offensive line for a team that won 11 division titles and went to four Super Bowls. 

The purple faithful could only hope that another left tackle from Southern Cal, Matt Kalil, could have a similar career to Yary's. The Vikings obviously have huge needs on the offensive line, at wide receiver and in the defensive backfield, and of those positions, Kalil has the most potential of anybody available in next year's draft.

This is not to say the Vikings won't listen to any trade offers if they get the No. 2 pick, but with Kalil sitting there, it would have to be a blow-you-away offer to move down. As we head into the offseason and combine season etc, teams who need quarterbacks will be looking to move up the draft board to get a shot at Robert Griffin III or Matt Barkley (who will more than likely come out). 

If the Vikings can stay in the top six or seven and get a starter and a future first-round pick, they should certainly consider it. That being said, getting a franchise left tackle like Kalil would suit the Vikings perfectly.

No. 3 Pick: Kalil, Claiborne or Trade Down

Here's where things could get really interesting for the Vikings, if they end up winning one of their two remaining games or end up losing a draft tiebreaker to the Rams and land the third pick in the draft. 

Best case scenario for the Vikings at this point would be if the Rams traded down with someone who desperately wanted Griffin or Barkley and the Vikings could then still get Kalil. 

If the Rams stayed at two and took Kalil, the Vikings would then have a decision to make: take LSU's Morris Claiborne, the best cornerback available or trade down a bit to get another pick or two. Obviously a ton of things will happen before the draft, so it will be more clear which direction the Vikings need to go as we go through the offseason.

If the Vikings are able to pick up a top level free-agent wideout before the draft, they may choose to stay at three and take Claiborne, even though he might not warrant being the third pick in the draft.

Trade Down out of the Top 6

A team that needs more of everything might be better off trading down in the first round to pick up another second rounder. 

Like we've said over and over again, the Vikings are desperate for help on the offensive line and at receiver and defensive back. 

There is a pool of available players that all might rank between four and 15 in the draft that would provide immediate help for Minnesota, and if the Vikings don't covet one too much more than another, they would do well to move down a bit and pick up an extra second-round pick.

Among this group of players would be: offensive tackles Jonathan Martin of Stanford and Riley Reiff of Iowa, cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick of Alabama and wide receivers Justin Blackmon of Oklahoma State, Alshon Jeffrey of South Carolina and Michael Floyd of Notre Dame.

Anyone on that list would be immediate help for a team that needs a lot of it.

Blow It All Up and Start over

While it's probably 95 percent that what the Vikings do in the 2012 draft is either two, three or four on this list, we'll have a little fun with No. 5.

My guess is the player that moves up the most on draft boards through the combine and the whole run-up to the draft in April is Baylor quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. At 6'2", 220 pounds, Griffin is a phenomenal athlete and started at Baylor as a true freshman. 

The obvious comparison is Michael Vick, but Griffin is a much better passer and a much better decision maker than Vick. The way Griffin handled himself throughout this season and through the Heisman process was exemplary, he proved to be an engaging, smart young man who just "gets it". 

It's a long shot to be sure, but if the Vikings lose their last two games and Christian Ponder plays poorly in both of them, dominoes may start falling that might make this happen. Leslie Frazier could be fired, a new coach could be brought in who doesn't like what he sees in Ponder and Griffin blows everyone away at the combine.

Again, this scenario is probably way out in fantasy land, but isn't that where fans of 2-12 teams spend most of their time?