Mike Shanahan, the Denver Broncos, and the Uncertain Future

2008 saw Americans losing jobs in unprecedented numbers; it is unsurprising to find that NFL head coaches are no exception to this rule. However, Monday marked one of the more surprising dismissals in recent football history: the departure of the Denver Broncos’ Mike Shanahan.

Following a monumental collapse after being on the verge of the postseason, Broncos owner Pat Bowlen saw his organization at a crossroad. After careful and emotional deliberation, Bowlen decided to fire Bronco mainstay Mike Shanahan.

"After 14 years, it was time to go in a different direction," Bowlen said Wednesday during a decidedly poignant news conference.

The obvious question that people ask is, did Pat Bowlen make the right decision in severing ties with Shanahan? However, while questions circulate around the future of the Broncos, the future of Shanahan is surprisingly overlooked. Shanahan’s dismissal has spawned much confusion amongst the NFL community, not because the move did not make sense, but because it is exceedingly difficult to watch such stable and successful relationships come to an end.

It was one of those rare events in which is no clear-cut winner or loser, gain or loss; this much was evident during the Broncos press conference Wednesday. However, the tough question that prospective NFL teams must ask now is just how good of an NFL head coach is Mike Shanahan?

Looking at recent records, Bowlen’s decision seems like a no-brainer. In this “What have you done for me lately” league, Shanahan was given exceptional leniency by Bowlen, and justifiably so. He is a perennial offensive “Mastermind,” who led the franchise to back-to-back championships a decade ago.

However, the Broncos have missed the playoffs the last three seasons, a feat the franchise has not endured since 1983. In fact, the Broncos have won a grand total of one postseason game since the end of the Elway era. 

With the departure of Mike Shanahan, the Denver Broncos now have no surviving affiliations to their championship teams. With both mainstays Rod Smith and Jason Elam leaving this past season, Shanahan represented the last piece of the golden Broncos era. 

The turnover has not necessarily stripped the Broncos of talent; in fact, the young pieces in place on offense (Jay Culter, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and the offensive line) provide significant hope for the future.

However, while the Broncos have indeed added pieces, in doing so they have also sacrificed much of their distinct identity. The once expected 1,000-yard rusher is nowhere to be found. The defense lacks the swarming nature that it once possessed. And now with Monday’s move, the Broncos are left without the face of their organization of the past 14 years.

Many point to the risky and often unrewarding personnel decisions made by Shanahan as the impetus for this move. As both coach and general manager, Shanahan progressively acquired more and more power within the organization. Evident by the firing of GM Ted Sundquist prior to the NFL Draft, the Broncos ultimately trusted Shanahan with full authority.

While common sense would dictate that whoever “cooks the meal should buy the groceries,” the two tasks are often far too taxing and consuming for one individual and it is extremely rare that these situations produce desirable results (see Nick Saban and Miami). 

So Shanahan will wake to a surprising feeling of uncertainty Thursday morning. And although he is nearly guaranteed another gig in the NFL (or possibly in the collegiate ranks), leaving Dove Valley where he has spent 21 of his past 24 years cannot be an easy task. While this move obviously leaves Denver with a monumental coaching vacancy, it leaves Shanahan in a similar limbo as well.

He will obviously be a hot commodity in the coaching market; however, teams must evaluate for themselves just how good of an individual fit Shanahan presents.

Shanahan gained mainstream notoriety due to his tumultuous period as the Raiders’ head coach, which ultimately was cut short by the very prudent and rational Al Davis. He returned to Denver only to be caught in the middle of a growing feud between then Bronco head coach Dan Reeves and franchise savior John Elway.

He left and began to display his true offensive capabilities, helping to craft the famous 49ers offense in 1994 as offensive coordinator. Upon returning to Denver as the head coach, Shanahan displayed an offensive prowess on a consistent basis.

However, when looking at the contributions of coaches and coordinators, most notably Alex Gibbs, Gary Kubiak, and Larry Coyer it begins to become unclear just how much Shanahan individually contributed.

Since offensive line coach Alex Gibbs left the Broncos in 2004, the team has seen a significant decline in rushing production, dropping from fourth in the league in rushing yards in 2004 to 12th this season. Gibbs conversely has brought his efficient offensive line philosophy to both the Atlanta Falcons and most recently the Houston Texans to considerable success.

Gibbs has produced top-10 rushing attacks nine of the past 12 seasons he has coached, one of those exceptions coming this season with the enigmatic Texans (who still managed to produce a 1000-yard rusher in surprising rookie Steve Slaton, improving from 22nd in the league in rushing to 13th in one year).

However, Gibbs is not the only high-profile member of the offensive coaching staff to recently leave Denver as offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak left to take the Houston Texans head coaching vacancy.

Following the departure of Kubiak in 2006, the Broncos have seen their disciplined, control-oriented offense deviate from its roots and consequently fall in output. In the four seasons preceding Kubiak’s departure, the Broncos’ offense ranked in the top-10 in both total yards and scoring.

However, since then offensive production has dramatically declined with the Broncos ranking 17th, 21st, and 16th in terms of scoring the past three seasons.

The decline in offensive production has cast doubt on just how much Shanahan single-handedly contributed to the offensive success of the Denver Broncos. Talent-wise, the Broncos have undoubtedly improved since the departure of Gibbs and Kubiak (who is Jake Plummer?), but Shanahan has not managed to maintain the same level of offensive output.

While Shanahan was often solely credited (possibly incorrectly so) with the offensive successes of the Denver Broncos, he had been surprisingly spared of blame in the Broncos’ defensive misfortunes.

The Broncos defense has never been particularly exceptional while under Mike Shanahan, which is not unexpected as it was often overshadowed by the more successful offense.

Shanahan and the Broncos have cycled through defensive coordinators at an alarming speed including the dismissals of Ray Rhodes, Greg Robinson, Larry Coyer, and Jim Bates. But just how much blame can actually be attributed to these coordinators?

While under Larry Coyer, the Broncos defense ranked in the top-10 in points allowed from 2003 to 2006. However, after the Broncos lost their final game of the 2006 season to the 49ers and missed the playoffs, Coyer was canned.

Afterward, it became unequivocally clear that Coyer was merely a scapegoat as the Broncos defense has fallen to 28th and 30th the past two seasons; and while Shanahan has been an integral part of prolific offenses throughout his career, he has brought neither production nor accountability to the defensive table.

The deterioration of the Broncos' defense can also be partially attributed to Shanahan’s notorious draft selections. However, this reputation has become increasingly confounding, as the Denver Broncos have produced exceptional drafts in two of the last three years.

Even still, it becomes readily apparent that this is because both of these drafts were offensively oriented; and while he may be an exceptional offensive mind, it is undeniable that Shanahan cannot evaluate defensive talent.

The Denver Broncos only have three players drafted by the organization from 2000-2006 remaining on the team (DJ Williams, Karl Paymah, and Elvis Dumervil). This lack of production from draft busts has forced even more drastic personnel choices as Shanahan has had to tap the free-agent market, often overpaying for older players who do not meet expectations (see Sam Adams and Travis Henry).

Shanahan does indeed present an appealing candidate to teams searching for new head coaches. He is a demanding, innovative leader who always has control over his locker room. However, the compounding ramifications from poor draft selections and subsequent decline in offensive and defensive success sealed his fate in Denver.

So where do the Denver Broncos and Mike Shanahan go from here? The Broncos must prove they made the correct choice in going in “a different direction” as Bowlen put it Wednesday. Shanahan, however, has the even more daunting challenge; he must prove that he can win in a new environment without the aid he so heavily relied upon in Denver.