Ohio State Banned Next Postseason, New Odds to Win Big Ten in 2012

The NCAA has just issued a postseason ban on Ohio State for the 2012 college football season. This prohibits the Buckeyes from playing in the Big Ten Championship, as well as in any bowl game.

The Buckeyes figured to be one of the conference’s top dogs next season, with Urban Meyer as coach and a plethora of returning starters. Much like USC in their conference this year, Ohio State might win the Leaders Division next year, but the second best team would take its place in the championship game.

So what are the rest of the Big Ten teams’ odds of winning the conference now?

Let’s break it down.

Minnesota, Indiana and Northwestern – 1%

Northwestern was the only one of these teams to make it to a bowl, but they will lose a whopping eleven starters from this year’s team. That includes do-it-all quarterback Dan Persa.

Minnesota and Indiana may improve, but not by nearly enough to seriously contend in the Big Ten.

Iowa – 5%

The Hawkeyes had a decent season and were able to pull a big upset over Michigan, but their defense has been a problem all season long. They rank 67th in yards allowed per game.

Things probably won’t get much better in 2012.

Iowa will lose six starters from the defense alone, including three from the defensive line. Against the ground and pound in the Big Ten, especially in the loaded Legends division, that simply won’t cut it.

Illinois – 10%

The Illini started off strong, but lost their final six games. A lot of starters are returning, but break-out star defensive end Whitney Mercilus probably won’t be one of them.

A new coach will be coming in. Growing pains are inevitable, even with a good portion of the team coming back.

The odds go up if Mercilus returns, though.

Penn State – 12%

Penn State has made a lot of headlines this season for all the wrong reasons.

They won’t be making many headlines for their play on the field next year, either.

An already anemic offense loses four linemen and its best receiver. The defense loses stalwart tackle Devon Still as well as the entire secondary.

Tough times are likely ahead for whoever the head coach ends up being for the Nittany Lions.

Purdue – 15%

Purdue is definitely improving, but they will have to do better than just one upset per year in order to compete in the Big Ten.

Ralph Bolden is a solid running back and Kawann Short will be one of the best defensive linemen in the conference next year. But, a team effort is required to take the next step.

An eight-win season should be a realistic goal for the Boilermakers.

Nebraska – 30%

The entire offense will return for the Huskers, aside from two linemen.

But a disappointing Blackshirt defense will be without many of its stars. Jared Crick, Alfonzo Dennard and Lavonte David will all graduate at the end of this season. Plus, defensive coordinator Carl Pelini has taken the vacant head coaching job at Florida Atlantic.

You need defense to win in the Big Ten. Unless something drastic happens, it doesn’t look like that’s realistic.

Wisconsin – 40%

Wisconsin will need to find a replacement for quarterback Russell Wilson. If either Dayne Crist or Jake Heaps end up transferring to play under center in Madison, the Badgers chances of winning definitely go up.

The problem is that Wisconsin will lose five starters from their defense next year. They’ll also need to play better away from home to make it back to the Rose Bowl.

Michigan State – 45%

The only problem for the Spartans is the fact that quarterback Kirk Cousins, and wide receivers B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin are all graduating. Teams with first-year quarterbacks, especially ones without a go-to receiver, will struggle in the Big Ten.

Thankfully, MSU has a defense that will return nine starters (ten if Jerel Worthy comes back for his senior year).

If Denicos Allen can continue to improve, look out for Michigan State.

Michigan – 60%

Brady Hoke came in and completely revamped a beleaguered Michigan team.

Greg Mattison is an absolutely brilliant defensive coordinator and should have no problem figuring out how to compensate for losing three defensive lineman.

Denard Robinson returns to quarterback this offense. They'll also have running back Fitzgerald Toussain, who has been sensational late this season.

And, considering how rapidly the Wolverines have risen to the top, there’s no reason to assume that there aren’t bigger and brighter things in the future.