NFL Playoff Picture: Worst-Case Scenario for Every Team in the Race

As we enter action for Week 16, each week from here on out will see a few more contenders get eliminated from the playoff picture, while other teams gain a firmer hold on a playoff seed.

The next thing you know, we will be discussing how certain playoff teams match up with each other, and who will have an advantage and why.

In today's article we are going to do some forward-thinking and look at every team in the race and try to determine what their worst-case scenario in the postseason is.

On to the presentation.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons had the best record in the NFC last year at 13-3. They had a bye in the first weekend of the playoffs in 2010, and had a chance to get healthy for their Divisional playoff game against the Green Bay Packers.

They were playing at home in the dome. They had an extra week to start preparing for either the Packers or the Philadelphia Eagles.

Despite having all of those advantages, they still got blown out by the Packers, 48-21, in what had to be a humiliating way to end the 2010 season. It really was a thrashing. The Packers outgained the Falcons 442 to 194. The Falcons turned the ball over four times; Green Bay did it once.

The Packers and the Falcons met again in the 2011 season. The score was a little more respectable, but the Packers still came out on top, 25-14.

Even though the score was closer, the way that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers dominated the game had to be discouraging for the Falcons. Rodgers threw for 396 yards against the Falcons secondary, while Matt Ryan could only manage 167 passing yards against a defense that has been giving up yards left and right.

Rodgers had a QB passer rating of 117.0, while Ryan had a rating of 55.0. No matter how you slice it, the Falcons would dearly love for somebody else to knock off the Packers for them, because if Green Bay has to face them in the playoffs, I believe that the Packers have their number.

There is no way that they should have any degree of confidence going in to that game, based on the last two results.

Baltimore Ravens

For the Baltimore Ravens, the worst-case scenario would be having to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC playoffs.

True, the Ravens have swept the Steelers in 2011, defeating them at home and on the road.

But one of the well-known axioms in the postseason, is that you never want to face the same team for the third time.

You can chalk that up to becoming overly familiar with an opponent—or it could be that the Steelers have been waiting for one more shot at the Ravens to give them a little payback.

The Ravens needed to win out their remaining games in order to have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. They would not have to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh, so at least they wouldn't have to face all the Terrible Towels.

But that all changed when the Ravens lost to the San Diego Chargers on Sunday night.

Now if the Steelers win their final two games, and the Ravens face them in the playoffs, it will be in Pittsburgh. That to me is their worst-case scenario.

Chicago Bears

It has to be tough to be a Chicago Bears fan right now.

Your team has lost Jay Cutler and Matt Forte to injuries, and then you learn that one of your players has a full-time job distributing drugs throughout your city. Maybe it is better to just end this season, and start it all back up for 2012.

The Bears are mathematically alive, but losing four straight games—especially the overtime loss to Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos—has to leave the team staggering towards the finish line.

For the Bears to have any chance to reach the playoffs they need either the Falcons or the Lions to lose both of their remaining games, the Seahawks would have to lose one of their two games, and the Bears would have to win both of their remaining games.

Right now that seems like a very tall stretch.

As much as Matt Forte means to the Bears offense, the worst-case scenario to me would be that the Bears attempt to rush Forte back into action down the stretch in an attempt to make the playoffs, and he winds up getting hurt worse by coming back to play.

By the time the start of 2012 rolls around, Forte is still trying to get healthy and rehab from his injuries. That to me would be the worst-case scenario.

Cincinnati Bengals

At 8-6, the Cincinnati Bengals are tied with the New York Jets for the final AFC Wild Card spot, but the Jets hold the tiebreaker over Cincinnati based on best win percentage in common games.

So, with that being the case, the Bengals have to win their final two games and hope that the Jets will drop one game to either the New York Giants or Miami Dolphins.

The Bengals' last two games are against the surging Arizona Cardinals and the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals appear to have a tough game to close out the season against Baltimore.

The Bengals made tremendous strides this season, so we will have to see how well they fare down the stretch.

Their job just got a little harder with the news that wide receiver A.J. Green sprained his shoulder in the Week 15 contest.

The worst-case scenario is that the Bengals win their final two games, only to see the Jets win their final two games as well, and lose out on the playoffs due to a tiebreaker.

Dallas Cowboys

The NFC East race continues to flip-flop back and forth between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. However, with the recent losses for both the Cowboys and Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles are now also still alive.

The Cowboys just have to win one of their two remaining games to eliminate the Eagles. But, since the Cowboys already have lost to both the Eagles and Giants, who their two remaining games are against, the Cowboys are far from out of the woods.

If the Cowboys drop those two games, it is not out of the question that the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles could all be tied at 8-8 for first place in the division.

If that were to happen, I do not yet know who would advance in the division due to the many tiebreakers in place. For the Cowboys to have to win one game against the two teams that are immediately chasing them is the worst-case scenario.

Denver Broncos

As we witnessed today against the New England Patriots, the Denver Broncos aren't really equipped to take on high-powered offenses and get involved in a shootout contest. This outcome today was fairly similar to the game against the Detroit Lions, who also went ahead early.

If the Broncos can hold on and win the AFC West, they would prefer to go up against average-scoring offenses like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.

Of the other AFC playoff teams, the Patriots, New York Jets and Houston Texans all have offenses that are averaging 25 to 30 points per game. Of those three, the best-balanced team is the Houston Texans, with their No. 1 overall defense.

The Patriots demonstrated today that they are more than capable of beating the Broncos, and they would be the Broncos' worst-case scenario should they meet again.

Detroit Lions

At 9-5 the Detroit Lions are right there with the Atlanta Falcons, fighting it out to win the two NFC Wild Card berths.

Depending on who is seeded No. 5 or No. 6, the Lions might find that their first-round opponent could be the San Francisco 49ers. Of all of the potential NFC playoff opponents, I worry that the Lions would get so worked up over seeing the 49ers again that they would lose control, as they have been known to do lately.

The Lions are as emotional a team as any in the NFL.

They play hard and they play with passion. The Lions team has come a long way this year, and if they reach the playoffs, they are to be commended for ending their playoff drought.

But the mere thought of the way that the two teams were fighting with each other at the end of the "handshake game" is enough for me to see them getting way too high or psyched up to play. That to me is the worst-case scenario for the Detroit Lions.

Green Bay Packers

Based on the events from Sunday's game in Kansas City, the Green Bay Packers suddenly are very thin at tackle. Chad Clifton was inactive for the game, Bryan Bulaga sprained his knee and Derek Sherrod broke his leg.

The Packers' depth right now is very shaky on the offensive line and they might need to think long and hard about how they want to play out these final two weeks. They have two remaining games against NFC North foes in the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions.

They already have the division clinched, but don't have home-field advantage yet. If they beat the Chicago Bears next weekend, what is the point of running Aaron Rodgers out there against the Detroit Lions' pass rush behind a shaky offensive line, when you could risk him getting injured and then missing the playoffs?

I believe that the Packers have the best team on paper in the NFL.

However, the perfect season is no longer possible. The worst-case scenario is that the Packers play Rodgers in the final two games and he gets hurt due to the injuries on the offensive line.

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans have the No. 1 overall defense in the NFL. They also have a very powerful ground game between the duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. In prior years, having the No. 1 defense and a great ground game would be an automatic recipe for a Super Bowl championship.

But that is not the way the NFL works these days.

High-powered offenses and lots of passing is the name of the game. How effective can the Texans be in the playoffs behind rookie quarterback T.J. Yates?

It is one thing for Yates to be ask to manage a game plan and do just enough for the Texans to win. That might work for certain opponents in the regular season. But in the playoffs, when everybody is going to raise their game up a notch, that probably won't be good enough to cut it.

The Texans' worst-case scenario would be to face an opponent that has a gunslinger type of quarterback like Tom Brady or Philip Rivers.

If the Texans were to face the Patriots, you do not want Yates to try to get into a shootout with Brady; that would be a recipe for disaster.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs gave their fans something to cheer about by defeating the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The other plus of the win was that it kept the Chiefs alive in the playoffs picture.

As it stands now, it is possible that all four AFC West teams could wind up with a record of 8-8. If that happens, Kansas City would win the division based on tiebreakers.

Crazy right? I thought so.

For the Chiefs to take a team that is 8-8 and try to advance in the playoffs with all of their injuries to key personnel seems highly unlikely. But they beat Green Bay today, so anything is possible.

So far in the regular season, the Chiefs have lost to the New York Jets by 27 points and to new England by 31 points. Taking it a step further, they lost by 28 to Miami and 34 to Buffalo, going 0-4 against the AFC East.

So, we will just say that their worst-case scenario would be to face an opponent from the AFC East and leave it at that.

New England Patriots

The New England Patriots offense continues to run through most NFL defenses like a hot knife runs through butter. The defense can be very scary at times, and that could ultimately prove to be the Patriots' Achilles heel.

The Patriots usually don't have trouble getting to the playoffs, but in the last two years the trouble has been how to win their first playoff game, as they have experienced very quick exits the last two years.

The Patriots' three regular=season losses were to the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants. The largest loss was to Pittsburgh by eight points.

In the AFC, there are potentially three teams that could give the Patriots a hard time.

The New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens are responsible for knocking them out of the playoffs the last two years, and either one could do that again. The other team would be the Steelers. I don't envision the AFC West as having a team that could beat them.

To me the worst-case scenario would be going up for a third time against the New York Jets.

The Jets defense has the potential to be better than they have shown lately. They have the receivers that can give the Patriots secondary trouble—and this would create the earlier scenario we laid out of trying to beat the same team for three times in the same year.

That can be very hard to do.

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints are very much like the Green Bay Packers. High-powered offense, very hot quarterback, and lots of weapons to distribute the ball to on offense.

The Saints have a better running game than the Packers. Both of their defensive units can be scary, as the Saints defense is ranked No. 27 overall, while the Packers defense is ranked No. 31.

The Saints showed in the 2010 playoffs that they can be defeated by a good ground game (Seattle did it to refresh your memory), so that is one concern. Another concern would be taking the high-powered offense and meeting up with a top-ranked defense that has a good ground game.

On paper, that sounds like the San Francisco 49ers, who have the No. 4 overall defense, and a good ground game behind Frank Gore.

A game against the Packers would be a pretty even or very exciting contest.

In the regular season, Green Bay came out on top 42-34 in Week 1. What I am still trying to understand is how New Orleans lost to both Tampa Bay and to St. Louis. But that is why they play the games, because you just never know.

The Saints have two games left against NFC South foes in Atlanta and Carolina. If they happen to lose either game, it might force them to lose a first-round bye and play a key game on the road instead of at home

Dropping down to the third seed would be the worst-case scenario for the Saints.

New York Giants

After defeating the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, how do you explain the New York Giants pulling such a clunker on Sunday against the Washington Redskins?

The Giants now face a huge matchup this weekend against the New York Jets. The loser of that game could very well find themselves out of the playoff picture. It is a huge game for both teams.

It is possible that the Giants could win the last two games and win the NFC East division. Then if all the division winners hold serve and win at home, that would probably force the Giants to travel to Green Bay for the divisional round.

If that happens, it could be a very bad matchup due to the performance issues of the Giants secondary. The Giants do have a good pass rush, but I just don't see how they could defend against Aaron Rodgers and all of his weapons.

The Giants traveling to Green Bay would be my worst-case scenario for the playoffs.

New York Jets

Rather than winning their game against the Philadelphia Eagles to further cement their potential playoff berth, the Jets got trounced on Sunday by the Eagles, adding more uncertainty to just how good is this team is.

The Jets are still in the thick of things, but they have gone on one streak after another all year. They either win two or three in a row, or lose three in a row—there is no in-between with them.

Do they have the personnel that can string together four wins together coming out of the Wild Card? I am inclined to think that they can't.

The thing that is strange about the Jets is that their offense doesn't move the ball that well.

Their offense is ranked at No. 25 in the league at 311 yards per game, but they are No. 6 in the league at scoring with 25.2 points per game. So that means that they take advantage of opportunities when they are presented and cash them in.

The Jets want to run the ball and let their defense take over. That seems to be the same formula with the Houston Texans as well.

I think that Houston has the better team though, so that the Texans would be able to beat the Jets at their own game, because they have the better running game. The Texans would be the Jets' worst-case scenario.

Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders couldn't stop the Detroit Lions long drive in the fourth quarter, nor could they block for the long field-goal try for Sebastian Janikowski.

So, instead of being tied for first place in the AFC West with the Denver Broncos, the Raiders find themselves a game back with just two games to go.

The Raiders now must beat both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers in the final two weeks and hope that the Broncos lose their final two games. It could happen, but the Raiders picked the wrong time to go on a three-game losing streak.

The Raiders can still get to the playoffs, but the odds seem rather long right now.

If they won the division and survived the wild-card-round game, they would have to go up in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs against the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

That could either be Pittsburgh or New England, and with the way that the Raiders are playing right now, I don't see them winning either of those games. Either opponent would be a worst-case scenario for Oakland.

Philadelphia Eagles

Everybody had written off the Philadelphia Eagles for dead, but maybe that is exactly what the team needed. Take the spotlight off of them, and just let them play some football.

After their defeat of the New York Jets in Week 15, the Eagles are in a position where they can win their last two games and finish at .500 with a 8-8 record.

If the Giants lose to the Jets next Sunday, and the Cowboys lose their last two games, that would mean that Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants would all be 8-8.

Who goes in to the playoffs with that scenario is something that I have not heard yet.

While it seems unlikely that the Eagles can earn a playoff spot, it probably is on a par with the Seattle Seahawks getting in last year with a 7-9 record. Strange things do happen.

The Eagles find themselves in a similar situation to what happened to the New York Giants.

The Giants beat the Cowboys, and then came up flat against the Washington Redskins. The Eagles play the Cowboys this weekend, and then close out against the Redskins.

Can you imagine if they beat Dallas and then fall flat against the Redskins to close out the year? That would be the worst-case scenario.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are now in the driver's seat in the AFC North, thanks to the San Diego Chargers' defeat of the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

The Steelers have a key game against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, with a lot riding on the game for both teams. The 49ers are battling New Orleans for a bye in the first round, while the Steelers need the win for a bye in the first round and to win the AFC North.

The Steelers are trying to close out the year with three wins without letting Ben Roethlisberger get hurt any worse than he already is.

Roethlisberger is obviously a warrior, but the injuries can take their toll as the weather continues to get worse. You see him limping around back there in the pocket, and some of the playoff teams with a better pass rush will be looking to take advantage of his lack of mobility.

The Steelers have won eight of their last nine games and are playing as well as anybody in the NFL right now. If they can win these last three and protect Roethlisberger, they have a good chance to go to the Super Bowl again.

But if Big Ben gets hurt any worse, or re-aggravates his sprained ankle, that would be trouble for Pittsburgh.

My worst-case scenario would be that the 49ers defense is all over Roethlisberger, and that Pittsburgh loses on Monday night. That means they don't have a first-round bye, nor would they have home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Like I said this will be a big game.

San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers are in the midst of their patented late-season roll, now winners of three games in a row after a six-game losing streak. In those three wins, the Chargers have scored 38, 37 and 34 points, so where did all this offense go during the six-game slide?

The Chargers have a huge game this weekend against the Detroit Lions.

This has playoff implications for both teams, so I suspect it will be a very hard-fought game. The Chargers are now one game behind Denver in the AFC West. After the Lions game, the Chargers close out against the Oakland Raiders, so they need help from other teams to defeat Denver.

The Chargers are now healthy on offense, but it might just come down too little, too late. If they don't make the playoffs, you would imagine that Norv Turner loses his job, so there is extra incentive for the team to step up against the Lions.

However, as we outlined earlier with the AFC West teams, the winner of the division will only come in with the No. 4 seed in the AFC. That means in the divisional round they will have to travel to face the No. 1 seed, and that is where the playoff run comes to an end.

The divisional round of the playoffs would mean playing New England or Pittsburgh, and either way that would be a worst-case scenario for San Diego.

San Francisco 49ers

After winning eight straight games, the San Francisco 49ers suddenly have lost two of their last three games, and with it their stranglehold on a bye in the first round.

The 49ers and the Saints both have three losses, so there will be extra pressure on the 49ers to try to sweep their final three games.

That quest starts on Monday Night Football against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

If the 49ers drop that game, that means that the Saints only have to win their final two games, and then the 49ers will have lost their first-round bye, as well as the chance to host a divisional round game.

They would have to travel to New Orleans to face the Saints, which should give them plenty of motivation. Dropping down to the third seed would be their worst-case scenario. 

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks have won five of their last six games, and they have seemingly come out of nowhere to now be in contention for a wild-card spot.

They would no doubt need a bunch of help, as they require Detroit and/or Atlanta to lose both of their remaining games, while Seattle runs the table with wins over San Francisco and Arizona—no easy task.

The Seahawks have been sparked by Marshawn Lynch, who has gone crazy lately with five games of 100 yards or more out of six contests. Lynch put the Seahawks offense on his back, and they are now in position to try to make a run at the final wild-card spot, but it might be too little, too late.

The worst-case scenario would be that the Seahawks win their final two games to go 9-7 on the year, but fail to make the playoffs because Detroit and Atlanta got in with 10-win seasons.

If that happened, then the Seahawks would actually have a better record this year and not get in the playoffs, than when they got in last year with a 7-9 record.

Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans were looking good for the final wild-card slot until they ran into the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The winless Colts took it to the Titans and dealt their playoff aspirations a serious blow.

The Titans now have to close out the year with a win over both Jacksonville and then Houston to finish at 9-7 and hope that is good enough to qualify.

There are two teams ahead of them at 8-6 in the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals, so if either team wins both of their remaining two games, the Titans are left out of the playoff picture.

The Titans' worst-case scenario is that they win their final two games, and that either the Bengals or the Jets do the same thing. That would be a bitter pill to swallow, reflecting on the loss to the hapless Colts as the reason they missed the playoffs.