Fantasy Football Week 15: Working the Angles to Dominate Your Playoff Matchups

During the regular season, I usually worry more about the long-term implications of moves I make. Now that we are in the fantasy playoffs, long term doesn't exist anymore.Unless you are in a keeper league.

Everything you do now needs to be designed to help you score more points than your opponent over the next few weeks.

Because I have my eye on the long-term prize, I don't let minor situations bother me during the regular season. By "situations" I mean quirky matchup details that could come into play for the current week's matchup. For instance:

• You might start a WR (say, Dez Bryant) while your opponent is starting that WR's QB (in this case, Tony Romo)
• Your starting kicker is on the same NFL team as your starting QB
• You might start a D/ST that is playing against one of your important/star fantasy players
• You might start a D/ST that is facing your opponent's starting QB or stud RB/WR
• You want to start multiple players from the same NFL team
• Your stud QB/RB/WR faces an incredibly tough matchup
• One of your normal starters is on an extended cold streak

Over the course of the season, these minor situations tend to even themselves out. Even if something crazy happens against you, that same thing might very well happen FOR you by the end of the season.

Why isn't Calvin Johnson going to score the 32 TDs he was on pace for early in the season? Because things tend to even themselves out. The technical term is called "regression to the mean."

But in any ONE given week, these situations can create some advantages and disadvantages.

You can try to maximize your potential gains or minimize any potential losses. But you usually can't have it both ways. If you lose this week, it's all over for you. So you need to examine every little detail of your matchup to find any angle you can that could help you.

Let's look at some of the situations described above and how they might effect your matchups:

You start a QB (or WR) from the one NFL team while your opponent starts a WR (or QB) from the SAME NFL team.

How this matchup plays out somewhat depends on your league settings. Most importantly, how many points QBs receive for TDs (usually four or six). In four-point TD leagues, the WR will have a bit of an advantage. They will gain two points on the QB for each TD pass and will receive yardage points at a much higher rate (usually 10 yards as opposed to 25). In six-point TD leagues, the playing field is basically neutral, if not skewed slightly toward the QB.

There are two ways to look at this situation. You can say that any time the WR does something, the QB will also score points. Or you can say that it is impossible for the WR to have an awesome day without the QB having a great day as well.

Both statements are inherently true. So I'm starting my best WRs regardless of team. But if it comes down to two equal WRs, I will consider who my opponent is starting at QB. If that QB is starting for an elite or almost-elite NFL offense, I will probably lean toward starting the WR from the same team. But if the QB and WR are on a lackluster NFL offense, I will avoid the WR. There's no point in starting Darrius Heyward-Bey just because your opponent is starting Carson Palmer.

I encounter this situation earlier in the season when I started Jordy Nelson and my opponent started Aaron Rodgers in Week 10 of my PPR league. Rodgers threw for 250 yards and 4 TDs while Nelson had 63 receiving yards and two TDs. So Rodgers had 30.6 points while Nelson had 23.3 points.

Even though Rodgers is the highest-scoring player in fantasy and he threw four TDs, Nelson was almost as productive. Most of the effect is psychological, but it was fun when Rodgers would throw a TD to Nelson, and Nelson would score more points on the play.

Your starting kicker is on the same NFL team as your starting QB

This might seem like a minor thing. In fact, during the regular season I kind of like having a kicker that's on the same NFL team as my QB or stud RB. That way when they score a TD, I get an extra point. Or if they fail to score a TD, I get a field goal.

But during the playoffs, you're limiting your upside. What are the odds of your QB throwing five TDs in the same game your kicker has five field goals? It's pretty much impossible. Of course it's not very likely that either scenario happens. But at least it's possible.

The same logic applies to having the same kicker as your opponent's QB. If his QB is killing you, throwing TDs left and right, your kicker is only going to get extra points. Of course if his QB is already doing lousy, your kicker will pile it on with some field goals.

You might start a D/ST that is playing against one of your important/star fantasy players

Again, this is about limiting upside. If your star QB goes off (300-plus yards, three-plus TDs), what are the odds of the D/ST he's facing having a good fantasy day? Sure they could get a return TD or some garbage-time stats. But they're going to get punished in yards and/or points allowed.

Here's the scenario on Sunday. You're starting Michael Vick and the Jets D/ST, who are facing each other. Every time Vick throws a TD pass, you watch his points go up while your D/ST loses points. You watch Vick throw a 4-yard TD pass that only gains him four points while subtracting five points from your D/ST.

The same logic again applies to starting a D/ST that is facing your opponent's QB or stud RB/WR. If your opponent's player is already struggling, your D/ST will most likely do well. If your opponent's player is blowing up, most likely your D/ST isn't going to score a lot of points.

You want to start multiple players from the same NFL team

As long as the NFL team has an excellent offense, there's no problem with this. Or if the matchup is outstanding (vs. Bucs, Panthers, Colts or Rams) that's OK, too. It's OK because those elite offenses can score so many points that everybody can wet their beak.

But don't push your luck.

Would I start Hakeem Nicks AND Victor Cruz? Absolutely. Would I start Ryan Fitzpatrick, C.J. Spiller and Steve Johnson? Not unless they're playing against one of the horrible defenses listed above. You can't put too many eggs in a rickety picnic basket. In that scenario, if the Bills are held to say 10 points, your fantasy season is most likely over.

Your stud QB/RB/WR faces an incredibly tough matchup AND/OR one of your normal starters is on an extended cold streak

You usually want to "start your studs."

That means even though Ray Rice is going up against the Steelers, you start him. But be realistic about who your "studs" are. Should you start Rashard Mendenhall in Week 15 against the 49ers just because you drafted him in the first or second round of your draft? Absolutely not.

And if your player has done nothing recently, it's going to be tough to start him in the fantasy playoffs. Sure, the explosion could finally happen and the player would be on your bench. Or he could continue his recent trend of doing nothing to help you.

Know what (who) your options are. Try to figure out what you are looking for. Do you want a "boom or bust" player who could put up huge numbers or maybe do nothing? Or are you cool with a steadier option who should at least get you a handful of points?

Thanks for reading. Have anything to add to the discussion? Please use the comments feature below. Questions are welcome, but please be as specific and detailed as possible. Good luck to all of your teams this week.

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