NFL Week 15 Picks for Every Game Against the Spread

Last week: 8-8.  Season totals: 110-92-5, Pct. .543.  Best Bets: 25-16-1, Pct. .607. 

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.

THURSDAY NIGHT

ATLANTA 27, Jacksonville 13 (+11)—While he may not be one of the four quarterbacks who are currently on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record, Matt Ryan is having a solid year nonetheless.  I can't see the Jacksonville offense remaining in beast mode for two games in a row.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Dallas 24, TAMPA BAY 21 (+6)—-A lot of observers are accusing the Bucs of having quit on the field last week.  That often leads to an undeniably honest effort next time out (see the Eagles this past Sunday, for instance), and only once under Jason Garrett have the Cowboys won on the road by more than a field goal.  Take the points.

SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS 31, Washington 20 (+7)—Eli Manning is one of the four would-be record-breakers (Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the other three).  The Redskins cannot be trusted to play tough on a consistent basis, so the Giants get a lukewarm vote to cover.

PHILADELPHIA 33, N.Y. Jets 23 (+1)—Guess even a wounded Michael Vick really does make that much of a difference—and the Eagles are 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread lifetime versus the Jets, who are 2-4 on the road compared with 6-1 at home.

BUFFALO 16, Miami 3 (+1)—A rite of passage of sorts for Matt Moore, as this line is available on only a very limited basis because Moore is questionable.  But Miami's recent form in Buffalo is a lot worse than merely questionable—1-5 both ways in the last six.  The Dolphins, who couldn't wait until the end of the season to whack Tony Sparano, are 13-31 straight up in cold-weather games dating back to 1995.

Tennessee 27, INDIANAPOLIS 19 (+6 1/2)—The Colts are 1-5 against the spread at home (3-4 on the road) while the Titans are perfect pointwise both on rugs (5-0) and in domes (3-0) this year and last combined.  And Indianapolis has already lost twice this season by this somewhat unusual score, both at home!

CHICAGO 13, Seattle 6 (+4)—At least Caleb Hanie covered last week.  He figures to do more than that here facing a Seattle team that is 2-11-1 against the line since 2009 as a visitor on the grass and 19-31 against the line since 1986 as a visitor in cold weather.

New Orleans 31, MINNESOTA 27 (+7)—Adrian Peterson is expected to return for this game, and the Saints, who have not won in Minnesota since 1993 (five straight losses) could very well be looking ahead to next week's NFC South prime-time biggie at home against Atlanta.

Cincinnati 17, ST. LOUIS 13 (+6 1/2)—Here is another playoff contender who will be lucky to even win outright on the road over a bottom-feeder, much less cover the spread. The Bengals haven't beaten the Rams on the road since 1990 (and never in St. Louis), and have lost their last five indoors by a combined 161-78.  Definitely take the points, and if the Rams can manage to get out of their own way, they might be able to pull off the upset.

Green Bay 28, KANSAS CITY 10 (+14)—With a win, the Packers can assure that this will be their last road game until next fall—and if Kyle Orton remains out, it will also be a get-well game for their 31st-ranked defense.

HOUSTON 24, Carolina 13 (+6 1/2)—T.J. Yates can't possibly be the next Tom Brady, can he?  And it's interesting how he gets to go head-to-head against Cam Newton the week after leading the Texans to a Tim Tebow-like comeback win over Andy Dalton.

Detroit 20 (+1), OAKLAND 14—It wasn't pretty, but the Lions survived last week and now get Ndamukong Suh back. Oakland's performance the last two weeks was anything but pretty.

DENVER 27 (+5), New England 24—The Broncos have beaten the Pats in six of the last eight meetings.  And that was before Tim Tebow.  Why not?

ARIZONA 17, Cleveland 12 (+6 1/2)—The Browns continue to absolutely kill me, but they are 9-2 against the spread indoors in their present incarnation (the forecast high for the Phoenix area this Sunday is 59 degrees; it was 66 at kickoff time last Sunday and the roof was closed), and the Cards could be on letdown watch after upsetting Dallas and San Francisco in back-to-back weeks.

SAN DIEGO 30 (+1), Baltimore 23—Don't even think about going against Philip Rivers in December, especially as an underdog since there's no way the Chargers can't cover if they do win.

MONDAY NIGHT

SAN FRANCISCO 24, Pittsburgh 19 (+1 1/2)—True, the Steelers have held up well in the past when Big Ben has been out, but they have other key injuries as well. Also, James Harrison has been suspended for this game.  And thanks to their little choke in the desert last week, the 49ers will need to win out in order to hold off the Saints to secure a first-round bye.

BEST BETS: PHILADELPHIA, DENVER, SAN DIEGO