USC-Penn State Football: 2009 Rose Bowl Preview

The Rose Bowl, unlike other bowls, finally got a great matchup.

For the past two years, The Tournament of Roses officials have had to take the second place Big Ten team as the representative in the Rose Bowl because the champion was in the BCS Championship Game.

This year, they get the Big Ten co-champs and the Pac-10 champs—Penn State and USC—ranked No. 8 and No. 5 respectively, in this classic showdown in Pasadena.

Make no mistake, other than the actual Championship Game, this bowl will be one of the best matchups in the BCS Bowl series. Both teams are ranked in the top 15 in all four defensive statistical categories. No points will be given up without a fight.

So who has the edge?

When Penn State has the ball

You have to think that Joe Paterno has looked at what Oregon State did to USC and what Penn State did to Oregon State. The Beavers were destroyed by the Nits, while the Beavers ran wild over the Trojans. But game film can be deceiving.

The Beavers beat USC by taking advantage of a 3-4 set that Nick Holt schemed up—Jacquizz Rodgers ran up the gut at will due to no interior stop-gap. When USC made adjustments with a 4-3, the Beavers were stopped in their running game. Only when USC inexplicably went back to the 3-4 late in the fourth quarter did the Beavers seal the Trojans' fate.

Joe Pa should and will be opportunistic if he sees USC in a 3-4. Evan Royster on blasts will be common fare even though the Nits run a spread. The problem for the Nits is they haven't faced two linebackers like Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing.

Yes, James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman are both excellent linebackers for Ohio State, but they are more balanced against the run and pass. Cushing and Maualuga are much stronger against the run, and thrive on intimidating offensive linemen before the ball is even snapped. They have caused numerous off-sides penalties by showing blitz and will be a huge wall for the running attack from Penn State.

While Penn State will spread it out and try to keep USC off-balance, the speed and athleticism of the front seven will match-up well. Penn State has not faced a team with great defensive speed, and may be surprised at how well USC can defend against the spread.

The Nits' best bet is to have Clark run a more West Coast-like offense with short, timed passes against the "bend, but don't break" Trojans' defense. It's hard to defend, and in a spread, will yield 5-7 yards per play and move the chains down the field.

When USC has the ball

Penn State State is the best team USC has faced in years, and they had better not take them lightly. If the Trojans have one advantage, it is against Penn State's pass defense. While still excellent, a lot of that is due to the Big Ten's propensity to run the ball, and thus, have low pass stats. Illinois and Purdue were the only top 30 pass offenses Penn State faced in the Big Ten.

USC averages almost 250 yards per game in passing, and you have to think Pete Carroll is going to pass a lot to cause the linebackers to drop deeper into pass coverage. A couple of pump fakes from Sanchez, and the Trojans could either swing it out in the flat to a tailback or execute reverse outs to confuse/freeze the Nits' D.

Running against Penn State will present USC's biggest challenge. The Nits are stout and big on the front line, and against USC's young O-line, this could be a battle that the Trojans could lose, and probably will lose. It's up to Steve Sarkisian to make adjustments and call misdirections, screens and play-actions to keep the Nits' D off-balanced.

The Nits would love to blitz and put pressure on Sanchez, but it's the amount of pressure that will predict the outcome of the game. Pressure enough to make him hurry passes and make poor decisions by forcing the ball into press coverage is just what the doctor ordered. Putting too much pressure, which forces Sanchez out of the pocket, will be the death of the Nits. Sanchez is quick, mobile, and deadly accurate on the run—more so than in the pocket. They have to walk a thin line here.

Intangibles

It's basically a home game for USC- a short twenty-minute bus ride up the 110 freeway. But that doesn't necessarily mean USC has an advantage. Texas beat USC in the Rose Bowl Championship Game, so it can be done. It has been done.

Still, over a month of rust in the snow in Pennsylvania might be hard to shake off, and no one performs better than Pete Carroll's Trojans in big games. Then again, Penn State just lost quarterback Pat Devlin (transfer) so with really only Clark as the go-to-guy, this is the perfect opportunity for Joe Pa to recruit and show some on-the-fence speedy, athletic quarterbacks that there is life outside the West Coast.

Both coaches are solid game-preppers. While they have different styles, they both will have their team ready. Penn State will be out to prove why they should have been considered for the FedEx BCS Championship Game, while Carroll—who feigns indifference, but has gone on record to say the BCS "stinks"—just wants to keep the ball rolling. Paterno wants some respect for the Big Ten, and Carroll wants the same for the Pac-10.

Finally, one cannot overlook the leg of USC's David Buehler. He averages 68 yards on kickoffs and over 56 percent of his kicks are touch-backs.

Most likely, Penn State will be frustrated starting on their own twenty after each score, and while that might not seem like a big deal, it is. Derrick Williams, one the Nits' biggest play-makers (ranked No. 15 averaging 27 yards a return) will probably never get an opportunity to run it out of the end zone. It's taking out a big play-maker that makes a difference in a game between two excellent, well matched-up teams.

Penn State's kicker, Kevin Kelly, kicks around 14 percent of his kickoffs as touch-backs, which means speedsters like Joe McKnight have a better-than-average chance—if he doesn't fumble—of getting some big yards back on returns.

Call the kicking game a game-changer. The X-factor. The difference in the game. Trust me.

Final score: USC 38 Penn State 21

Other B/R Expert Picks

Trey Bradley: USC

Michael Cline: Penn State

miamimitch: Penn State

Brian Scott: USC

David Wunderlich: USC

Justin Goar: USC

GeorgiaDawg: USC