NFL's FARCE Ratings: Breaking Down the Final Ratings to Predict the Playoffs

It's inevitable that there will be at least one playoff snub, and this year, the New England Patriots were that unlucky team. At 11-5, the Patriots had a better record than four of the eight teams playing on Wild-Card Weekend and were tied in record to three others.

But this time, you can't blame the NFL's playoff system. No, this is just a case of the AFC being too top-heavy. To wit: There were six 11-win teams in the AFC this year, the most since 1985. There have been only two occasions since 1985 in which there were more than four 11-win teams in the AFC—2000 and 2005, when there were five each.

In sports book news, Las Vegas odds favor the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants—both No. 1 seeds—to win their respective divisions and face each other in the Super Bowl. The next two with the highest chance to win the Super Bowl are the No. 2 seeds, Carolina and Pittsburgh.

Bland. That's not news.

What, would Vegas put 3-to-1 odds on the Minnesota Vikings because they think they have the chance to go all the way? Vegas' job is to set the odds to produce even betting on both sides, not to set them to what they believe.

With 17 weeks down, FARCE likes the Titans and Giants, too. But whom do I like? See below. Here are the final FARCE ratings of the regular season.

The predicted playoff bracket, based on FARCE:

Wild-Card round:

AFC—No. 5 Indianapolis over No. 4 San Diego; No. 6 Baltimore over No. 3 Miami

NFC—No. 5 Atlanta over No. 4 Arizona; No. 6 Philadelphia over No. 3 Minnesota

Divisional round

AFC—No. 2 Pittsburgh over No. 5 Indianapolis; No. 1 Tennessee over No. 6 Baltimore

NFC—No. 2 Carolina over No. 5 Atlanta; No. 1 New York over No. 6 Philadelphia

Championship round

AFC—No. 1 Tennessee over No. 2 Pittsburgh

NFC—No. 1 New York over No. 2 Carolina

Super Bowl XLIII

Tennessee Titans over New York Giants, 20.2-19.8, if 40 points are scored

FARCE thinks the favorites will win each game. Bland, just like Vegas.

There's more to the story than plain FARCE ratings. How did each playoff team do at the end of the year, how did they do against playoff-worthy teams, etc.?

The first table shows the weighted FARCE ratings of each playoff team from Weeks 12 on. Week 17 is weighted as if it were Week 11.

(Jump is the team's regular FARCE rating subtracted from their Week 12-17 rating.)

Tennessee doesn't look like such a big favorite anymore, huh? They are only one of two teams (along with Arizona) who had a worse end to their season than they did overall.

Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Indianapolis all come into the playoffs strong in the AFC, and Atlanta and Minnesota come into the NFC playoffs on a high note.

That's why I'm not taking the Titans in the AFC.

Now, here's another table, which shows how each team performed against teams that have a FARCE rating over 10 or are in the playoffs (15 teams qualify).

Instead of using a team's average FARCE rating, I have to see how their rating improved before and after their matchup; using the averages would also take into account other games on the season used to make their FARCE rating high.

Once again, the Colts are aided by the closer look at the FARCE ratings. I'm a big fan of the Carolina Panthers and believe they have a great chance of making the Super Bowl... but their performance against top teams shows they shouldn't be relied on to reach that point of the playoffs.

With all of these in mind, here are my playoff predictions.

Wild-Card round

AFC—No. 5 Indianapolis over No. 4 San Diego; No. 6 Baltimore over No. 3 Miami

NFC—No. 5 Atlanta over No. 4 Arizona; No. 6 Philadelphia over No. 3 Minnesota

Comments/reasons/thoughts: I have all four road teams winning this week.

Don't sleep on the Chargers over the Colts, though—the Chargers have been the Colts' kryptonite the past two years; the Chargers have won two of three games, and all three have been decided by four or less points.

Divisional round:

AFC—No. 5 Indianapolis over No. 2 Pittsburgh; No. 6 Baltimore over No. 1 Tennessee

NFC—No. 2 Carolina over No. 5 Atlanta; No. 1 New York over No. 6 Philadelphia

Comments/reasons/thoughts: Pittsburgh's poor performance against good teams is the reason for my picking the Colts to beat them.

I think the Ravens will prevail over Tennessee, but just barely. Baltimore hasn't done so great against tough teams, but they're streaking into the playoffs—after starting the year 2-3, including a loss to the Titans, they went 9-2 in their final 11—while the Titans are limping into them—after starting the year 10-0, the Titans went 3-3 in the last six games of the year.

The Carolina/Atlanta game could be an upset in favor of Atlanta, but I chose Carolina to be safe. The Falcons went 9-3 in their last 12 after a 2-2 start, and beat the Panthers 45-28 in Week 12.

But the Panthers won the matchup in Carolina, and as great as Matt Ryan has been in the regular season, he's just a rookie and may be nervous. Wait, but I chose Joe Flacco over the Titans. Gimme the Falcons!

I picked the Giants over the Eagles without thinking. But after looking over it further, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Eagles won.

After all, Philadelphia won four of its final five after benching Donovan McNabb (and beat the Giants 20-14 and the Cowboys 44-6), and the Giants lost three of its final four (but that one win was against the Panthers), but I just don't see how the Eagles can pull of the upset against the battle-tested New York Giants.

Championship round

AFC—No. 6 Baltimore over No. 5 Indianapolis

NFC—No. 1 New York over No. 5 Atlanta

Comments/reasons/thoughts: No, I'm not crazy for picking the Ravens over the Colts. Point to the 31-3 win by Indianapolis in Week Six all you want, but that was when Joe Flacco had one touchdown, seven interceptions, and a 60.6 quarterback rating up to that game on the year (compared to 13, five, and 90.2 the rest of the way); when Marvin Harrison had 80 yards and a score (compared to an average of less than 40 yards per game and a total of two the rest of the way); Le'Ron McLain and Willis McGahee had a total of 10 carries for 16 yards (compared to a weekly total of 28 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown the rest of the way); the Ravens as a team had 51 rushing yards (compared to 156 the rest of the way); and the Ravens had five turnovers (compared to a total of nine in their remaining 11 games). Since that game, the Ravens have outscored opponents by an average of 28-14, while the Colts have only won games by a score of 24-18. I think the strong Baltimore defense overpowers the Indianapolis offense in this game.

The feel-good story of the year stops here. The Falcons have been on fire since Week Five, but the Giants have been much better against tough teams: Atlanta was 4-3 against the teams with a FARCE rating of over 10 or in the playoffs, while the Giants went 6-3 against those teams.

Looking at just playoff teams, the Falcons went 3-2 and the Giants went 5-2 (which includes last week's loss to the Vikings in which their starters were benched in the second half). Moreover, only one of New York's four losses came at home, while four of Atlanta's five losses came on the road.

Super Bowl XLIII

New York Giants over Baltimore Ravens

Comments/reasons/thoughts:

Can the Ravens beat three teams in the playoffs to whom they all lost in the regular season? If my predictions end up correct, the Ravens would play the Titans, Colts, and Giants in their final three playoff games, and would end up prevailing over the first two.

The winner comes down to Joe Flacco and the Ravens' run game. In their five losses this year, Flacco has two touchdowns and nine interceptions—he has 12 touchdowns and three interceptions in nine wins—and the Ravens' have rushed for an average of 104 yards on 29 carries, a 3.53 yards per carry—in their nine wins they have rushed for 206 yards on 49 carries, a 4.17 yards per carry.

But will Flacco be fazed as a rookie playing in the Super Bowl, or will he perform like he did during the second half of the season?

We'll see.