After Frank Mir's KO of Antonio Nogueira at Heavyweight, What Will 2009 Bring?

Last night's UFC 92 and what has been happening in the UFC heavyweight division over the last couple of months is raising some interesting questions and topics for discussion.

At last night’s UFC 92 year end event, we saw Frank Mir complete his resurrection after a second round knockout of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, marking the first time Nogueira has ever been finished in a fight.

Frank Mir’s win was impressive because of the way he won the fight. Mir and Nogueira are both black belt Brazilian Jiu Jitsui fighters. Mir beat Nogueira in the second round by flooring him with combinations and then finishing it with ground and pound.

Everyone favoured Nogueira because his Jiu Jitsui is the same and probably better then Frank Mir’s. People felt Frank Mir had no stand up and Nogueira is a great boxer. Mir looked like the better striker last night and he dictated the fight from the opening seconds in the stand up. 

Now let us have a look at the heavyweight division and where things stand going into 2009.

The UFC heavy weight division was looking pretty weak at the beginning of 2008. The division had no identity, Couture was gone, Mir hadn’t done much, Tim Sylvia was gone, Gonzaga slumped and the only good thing seemed to be Nogueira.

The UFC made a big risky move bringing in untested amateur and professional wrestler Brock Lesnar. In Lesnar's first fight Frank Mir put his first back to back wins together since his motorcycle accident.

Mir was losing the fight badly being grounded by Lesnar’s heavy hands. With Lesnar standing and Mir down, Mir took advantage of Lesnar’s newness to the sport and secured the kneebar early in the first round.

From there, Lesnar beat Heath Herring in a lopsided decision.

Couture came back after being out of the UFC for over a year to fight Lesnar. Lesnar knocked Couture out in Couture’s first title defence since returning. Lesnar is now 3-1 and will be facing Frank Mir to unify the heavyweight titles.

Lesnar showed the world in the Herring fight that he can control fights on the ground, he also showed that he has very heavy hands in all three of his UFC bouts and he showed that he can take a punch in the Couture fight. Lesnar’s Jiu Jitsui is still untested since the Mir fight, but there is no doubt that he is getting better.

Couture coming back is also a big thing for the UFC heavyweight division. Although Couture is old, he fought well in his bout with Lesnar even though there was a 50 pound weight difference in Lesnar’s favour. Couture has stated he's still learning as a fighter and in my opinion there are still some good fights for Couture in the heavyweight and/or light heavyweight divisions.

Mir beating Lesnar and then winning against Nogueira in convincing fashion puts him on a three win streak and is 2-0 against top 10 fighters in that streak. Mir’s last win will move him up from his eighth position in the WAMMA rankings and he is definitely one of the hotter heavyweights on the market now.

What is good about Mir is he has great Jiu Jitsui, he has one of the best comeback stories ever, and he is one of the most well spoken heavyweights in MMA. Whether Mir wins or loses to Lesnar is a moot point, if he loses people will realize Lesnar really is a dangerous heavyweight, if he wins then people will see that Mir is nearly unstoppable. 

Nogueira lost to Mir, but is still considered a dangerous opponent and still a top 10 fighter. I would like to see him comeback and fight against Randy Couture in his next match up.

To round out the UFC heavyweight division, Gabriel Gonzaga is working his way back up the ranks. Rookie Junior Dos Santos looks to be developing into a great heavyweight early in his career. Finally, another big undefeated wrestler Shane Carwin is working his way up and should be seeing some bigger competition in 2009, his next fight being against Gabriel Gonzaga.

The UFC heavyweight division now has five fighters in the WAMMA top 10 and looks much stronger then it did last year.

Let us move onto the other heavyweight division over in Affliction.

Affliction has a pretty stacked heavyweight division and prior to the Mir win over Nogueira I would say it was much stronger than the UFC heavyweight division.

Affliction owns the number one heavyweight in the world in Fedor Emelianenko, who for all intents and purposes has never lost and has beaten great heavyweights in Nogueira, Sylvia, Mirko Filipović and a host of other heavyweight greats.

Fedor will have a big test going up against the number two heavyweight contender in Andrei Arlovski. If Arlovski wins it will open up a huge can of worms for people who argue that Fedor is untouchable and that the UFC heavyweights are nothing unless they go up against Fedor.

However, Fedor is starting to run out of fights in Affliction. Basically Fedor is facing Arlovski and after that there is no real challenge left for him with the exception of Josh Barnett. The problem with Barnett is he constantly seems to be avoiding Fedor, citing “scheduling” conflicts as a reason why they couldn’t make a fight happen.

No doubt Fedor is the undisputed number one heavy weight and probably number one pound for pound fighter in the world. He is pretty much undefeated through 32 fights and only seven of his 29 wins have gone to a decision.

If Fedor wants to continue his career as the undisputed number one heavyweight in the world for a few more years, there a couple of things that he needs to do. Fedor needs to get through Arlovski and he's going to have to be more cooperative with the UFC.

Fedor, whether he likes it or not is going to have to face UFC top heavyweights like Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar at some point and it has to happen before these fighters start declining. Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t just for Fedor’s legacy, top UFC heavyweights like Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar will always be questioned as long as Fedor is around. 

It is in both the UFC’s and Fedor’s best interest to try and figure out a way to have Fedor face some UFC top ranked heavyweights before their careers start fading and vice versa.

Basically for 2009, Fedor needs to beat Arlovski.

A Barnett-Fedor fight has to be organized for mid-summer 2009.

Frank Mir needs to fight Lesnar, whoever wins is irrelevant the loser will just have to go back to work.

Nogueira should fight Couture sometime in the summer or fall of 2009.

Once all that is said and done, the UFC and Fedor’s camp need to figure out a way to see UFC heavyweight champions get some fights with Fedor by 2010.