Past Their Prime: MMA's Old Dudes

With Big Nog's loss, a common question seems to be running through the MMA community: Is Big Nog past his prime?

To answer this question, we can turn to statistics, specifically the Elo-chess ranking system. Before you stop reading, understand, there will be no math or hard-to-grasp concepts in this article.

A long time ago a mathematician came up with a ranking system of chess players. He said that you cannot determine which moves are better than other moves. Because of this, he said the only thing that matters is a win.

His ranking system, now called Elo-chess, which is named after him, is used in many, many, many different sports to rank teams and individuals. Jeff Sagarin, one of the six computer ranking systems for the BCS, uses the Elo-chess ranking system.

This article is not about the Elo-chess, but is more about using Elo to see if fighters are past their prime.

In Elo-chess, when fighters win, they gain points, and when fighters lose, they lose points. If you lose to a lower ranked fighter, you lose more points than if you had lost to a higher ranked fighter and vice-versa.

We can look at the three-year adjustments to a fighters Elo ranking to see if some of the commonly understood fighters are past their prime.

Heavyweights

Of the top 15 fighters in the heavyweight division, five currently have negative adjustments or mods to their scores over the last three years. This means they have lost more fights than they have won in the last three years.

And depending on the size of the mod, it will tell us exactly how washed up they are. The more negative the score, the more washed up they are.

1. Mirko "Crocop" Filopovic, age 34: -95
2. Sergei Kharitnov, age 28: -41
3. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, age 32: -18
4. Allistair Overeem, age 28: -17
5. Randy Couture, age 45: -12

As we can see, three heavyweights over the age of 30 have negative scores, and have recently been labeled as over the hill. Remember, these mods are over the last three years. Based on the ages of Nog and Crocop, Kharitnov and Overeem could be close to their decline, but it could also be because they are not that good.

Light Heavyweight

Of the top 14 fighters in the light heavyweight division, four currently have negative mods to their scores of the last three years.

1. Chuck Liddell, age 39: -70
2. Wanderlei Silva, age 32: -67
3. Travis Wiuff, age 30: -37
4. Tito Ortiz, age 33: -3

Travis Wiuff probably pops up because he is not that good, but Chuck and Tito are commonly cited as being over the hill, and Wanderlei has recently been added to that list. The size of his mod should indicate that he has been declining now for three years.

Middleweight

There are no middleweights who have a negative mod. Matt Lindland, age 38, who is the closest to being called past their prime, has a three-year mod of 31. At least it's not negative.

By these measures, Matt Lindland is not yet past his prime.

Welterweight

One fighter in the Welterweight division has a negative three-year mod and it should be of no surprise to the astute viewer.

1. Matt Hughes, age 35: -114.

Not only does Matt Hughes have a negative three-year mod, but he also has the largest negative mod out of all of the weight classes. There is no question that Matt Hughes is past his prime.

Lightweight and Below

There are not very many fighters who are fighting past their primes in the lightweight or lighter divisions. Here are the three who are.

1. Takanori Gomi, age 30: -31
2. Jens Pulver, age 34: -26
3. Jeff Curran, age 31: -11