Heisman Trophy Odds: What Las Vegas Says About Each Finalist
Just like everything else under the sun, one could bet on the Heisman Trophy winner in the sportsbooks of Las Vegas. Just like with any other bet, Las Vegas usually ends up being right with their predictions, so let's take a close look at the odds and see if we can find something out about tonight's award show.
Odds come courtesy of thegreek.com, which usually posts the best future odds of any other website on the planet. Maximum wager is $300, which may seem like a lot, but is a drop in the bucket when we are discussing the amount bet at these sites.
Therefore, we have to realize that lines may be a little off. (Games like the Super Bowl will have a perfect, sharp line, and you can wager however much you want on it. Props or situations like the Heisman involve more human error and outside influence, and are tougher to forecast for the books...therefore, they limit how much you can bet).
The Defensive Longshot: Tyrann Mathieu
1 of 5Odds: +15000
Only one defensive player has won the Heisman in its storied history, and Vegas isn't expecting that to change tonight.
The honey badger has captured the nation's hearts with his nickname, ferocity, tenacity and game-changing plays. While he is an integral part to the defense of the No. 1 team in the nation, he remains a longshot to win the award.
If you're feeling lucky you can max out you're $300 and walk away with $45,000 if Mathieu becomes the second defensive player to win it.
In other words, don't expect the honey badger to win.
The Latecomer: Montee Ball
2 of 5Odds: +10000
Montee Ball has come out of relative-obscurity to secure a spot at the finals. It's well deserved, as the junior has rushed for 1,759 yards and has 38 total touchdowns. 38!
He's a longshot to win tonight. Vegas is most likely banking on the fact that he is the least well-known of the five finalists and wasn't in the discussion until a week or two ago as reasons for such high odds.
The funny thing is, is that Ball has had one of the best seasons for a running back historically. He's certainly had a better season than Richardson, and certainly has had a better season that Mark Ingram did two seasons ago.
Still, Vegas isn't a fan of Ball.
The Beleagured: Andrew Luck
3 of 5Odds: +800
It's hard to believe, but Andrew Luck comes in as the third favorite in the Heisman Trophy race. He was all but a shoe-in throughout the season, but some turnovers late in the year and a loss to Oregon have seemingly cost him the award.
It's incredible. Luck seems to be the most recent victim of sports media's on-going effort to build players up before knocking them down (also known as the Tim Tebow syndrome). Luck has done absolutely nothing wrong this season and has played quite well. He entered the season as the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman, but now sits as the third favorite.
And to me, these are clearly the best odds available. 8-1 on Andrew Luck? Do you think that if this award show were played out an infinite number of times that Luck would win once every nine times or more? If you do, then this is a good bet.
I'd like to think that he does win once every nine times. He remains to be the most well-known finalist and has compiled a 23-2 record. We don't know how Heisman voters vote, and his hype and overall tenure at Stanford may be enough for him to take home the award.
The Surprise No. 2: Trent Richardson
4 of 5Odds: +500
I was surprised to see Richardson this high. Of course Richardson is a great back and plays for the No. 2 team in the nation, but his stats are outshined in every regard by Montee Ball.
Richardson had some great games and some Heisman moments. His four touchdown effort against Ole Miss stands out as the best game he has had. He's the best offensive player on either of the top two teams in the nation, and gets an invite as a result.
If Richardson were to end up winning the award, it would be because of his team's success and his hype. I hate to say it because I am a fan of his, but how else would you justify him getting the award over Ball?
The Overwhelming Favorite: Robert Griffin III
5 of 5Odds: -3000
-3000?!?! That is insane! Odds like this are only around in first rounds of tennis tournaments between the No. 1 players in the world and the last entrants-in. The question is, do you think RGIII is as likely to walk home with the Heisman tonight as it is that Serena Williams will defeat Akgul Amanmuradova?
RGIII has built himself into the favorite thanks to incredible numbers and last second performances. Griffin has a 36-6 TD-Int ratio, nearly 4,000 yards and a 72.4 percent completion rate. His 10.8 yards per attempt are by far the highest in the nation.
He led Baylor to a last second win against TCU, and found Terrance Williams in the back of the endzone with eight seconds left to knock off No. 6 Oklahoma. Baylor has never been as successful as they have been under Griffin.
Should RGIII be the favorite? Probably. Should his odds be that high? Definitely not. Either this race isn't nearly as close as everyone thinks it is, or this sportsbook already knows who is going to win and isn't messing around.
If these lines are any indication, RGIII will be the latest to join the prestigious fraternity of Heisman Trophy recipients.


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