A Look ahead: Nine MLB Stories to Watch for in 2009

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but the 2009 MLB season will look a lot like the 2008 season. The same teams will be in the hunt, A-Rod and the Yanks will still be discussed ad nauseam, and the All-Star game will remain meaningless no matter how hard they try.

However, baseball will continue to captivate us, hand us plenty of surprises, introduce us to a whole new crop of stars, and make people like me who try to predict the future look very stupid. However, since that is nothing new for me, here is my list of the top stories to watch for in 2009.

Alex Rodriguez hits 50+ home runs to reach 600 and wins 4th A.L. MVP

Coming off a sub-par season that was full of personal distractions, the Yankees third baseman will bounce back in 2009 and become the 7th player in MLB history to reach 600 homers. No, it has nothing to do with Madonna; there actually is a trend here. In 2004 and 2006 when he failed to reach 40 home runs, he responded the next season by winning the MVP and leading the league in long balls. With Mark Teixiera now protecting him in lineup, I’ll stick with conventional wisdom and put my money on Alex to redeem himself.

Changes On the Way In Toronto

With the passing of owner Ted Rogers and an increasingly competitive A.L. East, the Jays’ slow start will mean the end of J.P. Riccardi’s reign as G.M., cost Cito Gaston his job (again), and make Toronto one of the more attractive trade partners at the deadline. Riccardi sealed his fate last season when he made asinine comments about Adam Dunn’s work ethic, however Gaston will merely become a victim of playing in the toughest division in baseball. In an attempt to dump salary, look for Toronto to shop guys like B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay, and possibly Vernon Wells.

Rickey Henderson elected to the Hall of Fame on First Ballot

Without question the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of the game, Rickey is a lock to be elected to Cooperstown. Guaranteed to go into the Hall wearing an A’s cap with whom he spent parts of 14 seasons with, Henderson is the MLBrecord holder in career stolen bases (1,406), runs (2,295), and leadoff homeruns (81). The only question is whether or not anyone else will accompany him to the induction ceremony in July.

Randy Johnson wins 300th game for Bay Area squad

Sitting at 295 career wins the Big Unit will become the last pitcher for the foreseeable future to reach the magic mark of 300 wins (I thought that was suppose to be Tom Glavine?). With San Francisco now the benefactor of Johnson’s unyielding charm, he assuredly will fill the void in the Giants’ clubhouse left by Barry Bonds as a surly, rude, and unpleasant human being. If Johnson can stay healthy look for him to be dealt mid-season, possibly back to Arizona.

Yankees Spending Spree Pays Off, A.L. East Champs

Listen, I hate to concede anything to the Yankees, but if you don’t think that they are the best team in the American League then you are fooling yourself. Spending $420 million on three players buys you that right.

An imposing rotation of Sabathia, Wang, and Burnett (let’s not count out Pettitte), aided by the 1-2 punch of Joba and Mariano in the bullpen will ultimately do in the Sox and Rays. It is World Series or bust for Joe Girardi this season and the Steinbrenner’s will remind him throughout.

Padres Trade Peavy Mid-Season to the Red Sox

He will be this year’s Holy Grail of the trade deadline, but buyer beware. For his career, Peavy's ERA at home (2.77) is a full run higher than on the road (3.80). Last season it became even more exacerbated, as he posted a 1.74 ERA at PETCO and a 4.28 ERA away from the familiar confines.

Pressed into the move by the surging Yanks, the Sox pry away Peavy for a package of RHP Clay Buchholz, RHP Justin Masterson, and another mid-level prospect. By June, Peavy will be fed up enough with the last place Pads and the persistent trade rumors that he will not refuse any move to the East Coast.

The excitement of a pennant race and the opportunity of a championship will also be a factor. Expect the Angels and Cubs to also be players.

For the Mets, 3rd Time Equals Charm

On the strength of the revamped bullpen, an ever-improving Mike Pelfrey, and a Jose Reyes’ MVP-caliber season, the Mets edge out the Phillies in the final week to claim the division.

However, the Phils still make the playoffs as the wild card. Expect key contributions from youngsters Fernando Martinez, Daniel Murphy, and Jon Niese as talk of a Subway World Series with the Yanks heats up sports talk in New York all summer.

Rookies of the Year Will Play in Florida This Season

Tampa Bay’s David Price and Florida’s Cameron Maybin will have breakout seasons in 2009 and sweep the Rookie of the Year Award for the state of Florida. Price, who gained notoriety for his performance in the playoffs, is destined to be the next great ace. The 6-foot-6 lefty has dominated on every level he has performed and will need to this season in order to keep the Rays relevant in the A.L. East.

Maybin, a five-tool outfielder, will make the Marlins a better team in ’09 and will allow Hanley Ramirez to drop down in the order where he is more suited. With all the upside, there is still some recklessness to Maybin’s game, but the dynamic he brings will be too much to ignore. If he finds a way to consistently reach base, look for him to be among the leaders in stolen bases in the majors.

Cubs Break Fans' Hearts, Again

The Cubs are primed to run away with the Central Division for the 2nd consecutive season, merely by the teams around them getting worse. The Astros are slashing payroll, the Brewers have lost their two best starters, and the Cardinals addition of Khalil Greene will barely make an impact.

The sad part? Chicago will go down in the Division Series again.

There is something to be said for a team that survives a pennant race, as they are more likely to stay sharp. Without having a team to push them, the Cubs will sleep walk through the regular season and not even “Sweet” Lou will be able to snap them out of it. Who will be this year's goat/black cat/Bartman?