UFC 140 & the Nogueira Brothers: Who Has a Better Chance of Losing Their Fight?

UFC 140 is coming up, and something that has been a bit overlooked is the fact that both Nogueira brothers will be fighting on the card one right after the other.

Both want to win their fights and probably want their brother to do just as well, but it might not end up that way.  It could happen that one wins and the other loses, of course.

So who has the better chance at success come Saturday?

Both are facing former champions, with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, a heavyweight also known as Big Nog, facing Frank Mir in the co-main event.  In the fight right before that his brother, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who is known as Little Nog and fights at light heavyweight, is facing Tito Ortiz.

But where as Big Nog and Mir are both coming off dominant victories in their last outings, Little Nog and Ortiz both seem to be closing in on the UFC chopping block.

Ortiz is just 1-3 in his last four fights, but the one win he does have was against Ryan Bader who he took out in one round while earning himself a submission of the night bonus.  On the other hand, Little Nog has lost his last two fights one of which was against Bader.  He also struggled to get a win over Jason Brilz at UFC 114.

Both men have had close losses in some of these outings.  Ortiz lost a split decision in a rematch with Forrest Griffin and Little Nog lost a debatable unanimous decision against Phil Davis.

Ortiz and Little Nog both need wins though as they are older and this might be there last chance to put together a win streak.

Things have been better for the elder Nogueira since in his last outing he was able to knock out the young prospect Brendan Shcaub in the first round, but he is getting an opponent who has been just as dominant.

Mir not only has won his last two fights but holds a win over Big Nog when he faced him at UFC 92 and knocked him out in the second round.  The fight didn't seem to warrant a rematch, but it was found out later that Big Nog had been treated for a staph infection leading up to the bout.  

As much as fighters should never make excuses for why they lose it makes sense that Big Nog wasn't himself in the cage.  A rematch might play out differently.  Big Nog is a brilliant Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter who should be able to have a grappling war with Mir and if his stand-up against Schaub showed fans anything it's that he might be able to hold his own on Saturday.

Unfortunately, His brother hasn't done as well since he got into the UFC.  Where as Big Nog has been able to bounce back from what looked like the end of his career, Little Nog hasn't looked dominant at the top level for a while now.

Neither has Ortiz for that matter, but the fact that Ortiz was able to beat Bader who Little Nog lost to may just have the younger Nogueira's number.  

So come fight night, Big Nog may have to walk into the cage and brush off his little brother's loss so he doesn't face one of his own.