Your Favorite Team's REAL Playoff Chances

By now, we all know more or less what our favorite team needs to do to make the playoffs, but... what are the actual bottom-line percentage chances for these teams... really?

For example, the New England Patriots need to win AND they need either the Jets to beat Miami OR the Jaguars to beat Baltimore. So, knowing all that, what are the chances of that happening? 10 percent? 50 percent? 90 percent?

To answer this, one needs to assign a percentage chance for victory to each team in the games this upcoming weekend. Then, based on those percentages, we can determine how much of a chance each team has in making the playoffs.

Let's dispense with the easy ones first:

The NY Giants, Tennessee Titans, and Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals are all in and locked into their positions. Nothing to calculate here.

First up: The San Diego Chargers vs. the Denver Broncos. Winner is in, loser is out. I calculate that San Diego has a 62 percent chance of winning this match-up, meaning that Denver has a 38 percent chance of winning. Those percentages are also each team's chances of making the playoffs.

Next up: The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons. Both teams are in the playoffs. The only question is which team will be the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and which will be the No. 5 seed. It's a big deal since the No. 2 seed has home field advantage for its first game, and a first round bye. For Atlanta to be the No. 2 seed, they must win while Carolina must lose. Surprisingly, I feel this scenario is likely to happen!

Carolina travels to New Orleans while Atlanta takes on St. Louis. Carolina will have its hands full with New Orleans, a team with nothing to lose, playing at home (which matters a lot in NFC South divisional match-ups) and coming off a confidence-building offensive showing against Detroit.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is playing a deplorable St. Louis team. I give Atlanta a 95 percent chance of victory, while I give Carolina only a 45 percent chance of victory. I therefore give Atlanta a (.95) X (.55) = approximately 52 percent chance of being the No. 2 seed, leaving Carolina with just a 48 percent chance of that prize.

Now the fun begins:

If the Miami Dolphins win, they are in as the AFC No. 3 seed. If they lose, they are out (I'm not even going to bother with ties). They play the NY Jets at the Meadowlands. This will be a relatively low-scoring game in unpleasant weather conditions and even though the Jets have played poorly for a month now, Miami isn't exactly a dominant team themselves. In short, I calculate Miami has only a 42 percent of victory, which is therefore their same percentage chance of making the playoffs.

If the Baltimore Ravens win, they are in as the AFC No. 6 seed. If they lose AND New England loses, they would also be in. The Ravens host the reeling Jaguars. Baltimore should win this game easily, and I give them an 86 percent chance of doing so.

New England travels to Buffalo. True, the game is on the road, and Buffalo did prevail against Denver last week so they have some momentum. However, one has to believe that New England will figure out a way to stomp all over the Bills. I give New England a 68 percent chance of victory, mainly due to them being on the road (or the percentage would be higher). As such, Baltimore has a (.86) + ((.14) * (.32)) = approximately a 90 percent of making the playoffs. Obviously, their chances of postseason play are very good.

The New England Patriots must win AND hope either the Jets or the Ravens lose. The chances of the stars aligning in the Patriots direction isn't favorable, but there is still a reasonably good chance of it all happening. Based on the calculations of the Miami, Baltimore, and New England games described above, the New England Patriots have a (.68) * (.58) = approximately a 39 percent chance of winning the AFC East and a (.68) * (.14) = approximately a 10 percent chance of being the last wild card team. Summing those two percentages up, the New England Patriots have approximately a 49 percent chance of making the playoffs. I think it will happen for them.

The New York Jets must win AND hope that New England loses or Baltimore loses. The Jets are likely to prevail, but the chances of either of the other events occurring is not favorable to the Jets. The Jets have a (.58) * (.32) = approximately a 19 percent chance of winning the AFC East. They have only a (.58) * (.14) = approximately an 8 percent chance of being the final wild card team.

In summary, the Jets have only a 27 percent of making the playoffs. Not good.

In the NFC, if the Dallas Cowboys defeat the Philadelphia Eagles, they are in. Otherwise, they are out. Philadelphia gagged against the Redskins last week, but before that, they were playing very well, and scoring lots and lots of points. If Baltimore could score 30+ points against Dallas, certainly the Eagles can too.

I expect the game to be high scoring (unless the weather is extremely bad) but since the Eagles are at home, they should prevail and I give them a 55 percent chance of doing so. Dallas, therefore, has only a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeat the Oakland Raiders in Oakland, and Dallas loses, Tampa Bay is in. Even though the game is in Oakland, I still fully expect Tampa Bay to destroy the Raiders and I calculate a 92 percent chance of them doing so.

The Oakland Raiders aren't as awful as say, Detroit or St. Louis, but it's hard to believe they will be able to get up for this game, knowing that it won't matter for much considering who knows who their next coach will be. Tampa Bay therefore has a (.92) * (.55) = approximately a 51 percent chance of making the playoffs. I think they will make it.

If the Minnesota Vikings defeat the NY Giants, they are in as the NFC North champions. Even if they lose, if the Chicago Bears lose to the Houston Texans, then Minnesota is still the NFC North champs.

The NY Giants have absolutely nothing to play for. Brandon Jacobs will probably play in only a couple series, if it all. Eli Manning will probably play for only a half. By the fourth quarter, Minnesota will be facing mostly backups. Rarely do teams with everything to play for lose to teams with nothing to play for.

Minnesota will win this game and I calculate a 90 percent chance of them doing so. As for the Bears, Houston has been playing great these last few weeks, including beating even the Titans during their impressive string of victories. The Texans will be playing to finish above .500 for the first time in their history. And, the Texans will be at home.

Chicago will have a tough time winning this game and I estimate that they have only a 22 percent chance of doing so. Therefore, Minnesota's playoff chances are (.90) + (.10) * (.78) = approximately 98 percent. I would be shocked if Minnesota is left out.

The Chicago Bears would be the NFC North champs if they defeat Houston and Minnesota loses to the Giants. Furthermore, they would be the last NFC wild card team if they defeat Houston AND Philadelphia defeats Dallas AND Tampa Bay loses to Oakland. So, they have some chances, but it doesn't look good for them.

Using the calculations from the scenarios above, the Bears have a (.22) * (.10) = approximately a 2 percent chance of winning the NFC North and a (.22) * (.55) * (.92) = approximately a 1 percent chance of being the last NFC wild card team. Therefore the Bears have a grand total of a 3 percent chance of making the playoffs. Sorry Bears fans, it won't happen.

And finally, the Philadelphia Eagles would make the playoffs if they win, Tampa Bay loses, and either Minnesota or the Bears lose. Using the calculations above, Philadelphia has a (.55) * (.08) * ((.10) + (.78)) = approximately a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs which isn't much but hey, it's better than the Bears' chances at least!

In summary, the chances for the contending teams making the playoffs:

AFC:

Baltimore: 90 percent, San Diego: 62 percent, New England: 49 percent, Miami: 42 percent, Denver: 38 percent, New York: 27 percent.

NFC:

Minnesota: 98 percent, Tampa Bay: 51 percent, Dallas: 45 percent, Philadelphia: 4 percent, Chicago: 3 percent.

Finally, if you've made it this far, you may be wondering where this magic "calculations" came from. The answer: I made them up of course. I mean after all, does anyone really know what's going to happen? Of course not, otherwise, Las Vegas would be in big trouble. I'm guessing, like we all are. The point is, we have to start from somewhere. If you disagree with any calculation I've come up with, feel free to substitute your own values and have fun. I certainly have.

And I sincerely hope that both Chicago and Philadelphia make the playoffs... just to spite me!