College Football Bowl Games: Predicting Every Big Ten Bowl Game

The 2011 bowl season is here, and it has undoubtedly blessed the Big Ten with some matchups that could be instant classics.

The Rose Bowl will not disappoint with the Oregon Ducks facing off against the Wisconsin Badgers.  The Gator Bowl gives us a rematch of the 2007 BCS National Championship game, and the Ticket City Bowl gives Penn State a chance to show the nation what it is made of against the Houston Cougars.

The Big Ten has a lot of proving to do this bowl season, as many college football analysts have questioned the legitimacy of the Big Ten's high profile teams this past season.  

The good news for the Big Ten is that every matchup this year provides the respective teams with a legitimate opportunity to prove their worth and show the nation what the Big Ten is about, power running and strong defense.

Predictions of every Big Ten bowl matchup, ranked in their respective importance to the conference await you.

Read on.   

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Purdue vs. Western Michigan

Well, this is bound to be a dud of a matchup.  Sorry, Boilermaker and Broncos fans. This years Little Caesars Bowl just doesn't impress in any way, shape or form.

The only real stat to grab onto for this game is Western Michigan's seventh ranked passing attack and the fact that the Boilermakers give up only 202.4 yards per game through the air.

Purdue will be able to shut down the Bronco's passing attack, and they will also be able to expose the Broncos run defense, which gives up about 215 yards per game.  I don't see any way in which Western Michigan comes out of the Little Caesars Bowl with a win against a Purdue team with a solid rushing attack. 

Purdue will ride the running of running back Ralph Bolden, who currently averages 4.6 yards per carry, to a Little Caesars Bowl victory and their seventh win of the season.  

Prediction:

Purdue Boilermakers 28, Western Michigan Broncos 20

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois vs. UCLA

I'm always amazed at how these bowl matchups line up.  Here, we have a matchup of two teams, Illinois and UCLA, who's head coaches have been fired since their teams weak performance during the season.

I'm amazed that Illinois even made it to a bowl game after losing their final six games to finish an abysmal 6-6.  It's wild how just seven weeks ago the Illini were ranked in the top 15, and some college football analysts were talking about Ron Zook being coach of the year.  Oh, how times have changed.

This game will be close, but not because the teams are that good.  It will be close because the teams are just that bad. The difference maker in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl will be the legs of quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase.  Scrambling quarterbacks like Oregon's Darron Thomas gave UCLA's defense a lot of trouble, and Illinois will do the same with Scheelhaase.  

The Bruins defense just isn't that good either and the running game of the Illini will prove to strong and consistent for the Bruin's weak rushing defense.  Illinois averages around 171 yards per game on the ground, and I expect them to reach that mark easily against the UCLA Bruins. 

This matchup won't be anything worth remembering with the losing team ending up with a 6-8 overall record and the winning team moving to a yawn-worthy 7-6.  

Prediction: 

Illinois Fighting Illini 20, UCLA Bruins 17

Insight Bowl: No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

To say that the 2011 Oklahoma Sooners have been a disappointment would be a vast understatement.  Picked as pre-season favorites to reach the BCS national championship game, the Sooners season has imploded.  

While the Sooners are surely disappointed that their season is ending in the Insight Bowl, at least they still have an opportunity to show the nation what they're made of and believe me, they will do just that.

No offense to the Iowa Hawkeyes, who lost to the lowly Minnesota Gophers but managed to beat the 13th ranked Michigan Wolverines, but they just won't be able to hang with Landry Jones and the Oklahoma Sooners.  

The Hawkeyes don't necessarily excel at anything offensively, they are ranked 53rd in scoring, 77th in rushing yards per game and 57th in passing yards per game.  The Sooners, on the other hand, have the nations fourth ranked passing offense, and are the 10th best scoring offense in the nation. 

I can see the Iowa Hawkeyes hanging around for the first half, even potentially taking the lead into half, because the Sooners will undoubtedly underestimate the grit and tenacity of the Hawkeyes early on.

After the half and some defensive adjustments made by Oklahoma, the Sooners will be just too much for the young Hawkeyes to handle defensively.  The game will turn into a blowout.  This is Oklahoma's final chance to get their 10th win and salvage the season in some form, and that will be all the motivation they need.  

Prediction: 

No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners 45, Iowa Hawkeyes 24

Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Northwestern

The Meineke Car Care Bowl brings us a matchup of two teams that were picked to contend for the respective division titles, but didn't.  The one thing both these teams have in common is the fact that their seasons can be defined by one word, underachieving.  

The 6-6 Texas A&M Aggies match up with the 6-6 Northwestern Wildcats for what should be one of the more exciting Big Ten matchups of the bowl season.  

After starting the season 2-5, the Wildcats won four straight games, including a major upset of the Nebraska Cornhuskers, just to become bowl eligible.  The Aggies, on the other hand, have been in almost every game they've played in, losing five of their six games by a touchdown or less.  The Aggies came a few missed opportunities from being a one-loss team and playing in a BCS bowl.

There is no doubting that the advantage in this game goes to the Texas A&M Aggies and their offense that ranks 18th in passing yards per game and 11th in points per game.  On the other hand, the Wildcats have been catching fire lately, aside from their loss to Michigan State.  

This game will be back and forth throughout, with Ryan Tannehill going absolutely crazy on the Northwestern secondary for at least five touchdowns.  The Wildcats answer to Tannehill won't be on defense it will be on the legs and right arm of quarterback Dan Persa. 

Although the Aggies will ultimately win this shootout, the Wildcats will gain national respect by hanging around for a majority of the game.  

Prediction: 

Texas A&M Aggies 41, Northwestern Wildcats 38

All-State Sugar Bowl: No. 13 Michigan vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech

I'm not surprised that the Sugar Bowl selected the Virginia Tech Hokies and Michigan Wolverines instead of teams like Kansas State and Boise State, only based on the commitment of the respective fan bases.  

I honestly think Michigan vs. Kansas State would have been a much better matchup featuring two great spread option offenses that would have lit up the scoreboards on each other.  

Oh well, we've just got to make do with Michigan and Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech's lone win against a ranked opponent came a few weeks ago against the 23rd ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  The only other ranked opponent Virginia Tech played was Clemson, which they played twice and got blown out both times.  

Much like those Clemson matchups the Sugar Bowl will result in a blowout of Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech has a solid run offense and a stingy defense, but it won't be able to stop the versatile game of Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson.  Once the Hokies try to key in on the run game of Robinson he will torch them through the air.  

This game will never truly get out of control, but Michigan will dominate the line of scrimmage and will earn it's first BCS bowl victory since the 1999-2000 college football season.

Prediction: 

Michigan Wolverines 38, Virginia Tech Hoakies 17  

Gator Bowl: Ohio State (31) vs. Florida (17)

Ohio State against the Florida Gators.  A battle between Urban Meyer's old team and the team about to become his new one.  A rematch of the 2007 BCS National Championship game.  

I mean, could there be anymore story lines for this game? 

It makes perfect sense why the Gator Bowl selection committee passed over Penn State and made this matchup happen.  Okay, now onto the actual matchup itself.  

Both the Buckeyes and the Gators are a putrid 6-6 overall with a 3-5 record in conference play.  It amazes me that both teams did that poorly in 2011, but that is neither here nor there.

What will be the major difference in this game is Ohio State's ability to run the ball with not only their powerhouse running back Dan"Boom" Herron, but also with their athletic quarterback Braxton Miller.  The Buckeyes average 195.4 yards per game on the ground, and that will be why the Buckeye's win the Gator Bowl.  

Florida's defense is not nearly as dominant as it has been in the past, and trying to stop Dan Herron and Braxton Miller will ultimately prove too much to handle for the young Gators. 

Prediction: 

Ohio State Buckeyes 31, vs. Florida Gators 17

Capitol One Bowl: No. 9 South Carolina vs. No. 20 Nebraska

South Carolina is fired up that they didn't get selected for an at-large bid to a BCS game, and they will try to take out their frustrations on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Capital One Bowl.  

The one big difference between the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Nebraska Cornhuskers is the consistency of the Gamecocks defense throughout the year, against top-tier competition.  The Gamecocks only allow 18.2 points per game on average, compared to the Cornhuskers average of 22.8.  

Those numbers may look quite close, but that four point difference could be the potential in this matchup.

Other than points per game, these teams are very similar statistically.  The Gamecocks are ranked 97th in the air as compared to the Cornhuskers's 103rd ranked passing offense.  The Cornhuskers have the advantage in the running game, ranking 13th with 223 yards per game as compared to the Gamecocks 26th ranked rushing attack which averages 198 yards per game.

This game will come down to who can force the most turnovers, and that advantage goes to the South Carolina Gamecocks.  The Gamecocks speed on defense will for Cornhusker's quarterback Taylor Martinez into situations that will expose his weak arm, resulting in turnovers for the Gamecocks defense.  

Taylor Martinez will throw at least two interceptions, allowing the Gamecocks to stay in the game and ultimately pull away with the victory.

Prediction:

No. 9 South Carolina Gamecocks 31, No. 20 Nebraska Cornhuskers 27   

Ticket City Bowl: No. 21 Penn State vs. No. 19 Houston

This matchup is a disappointment for most Penn State fans, after being selected behind Ohio State (6-6), Northwestern (6-6) and Iowa (7-5), but I think it is a great opportunity for Penn State to show a national audience that they are still a high-caliber team.

This will be the third best Big Ten matchup in the 2011 bowl season, behind the Outback Bowl matchup of Michigan State and Georgia and the Rose Bowl matchup of Wisconsin against Oregon.  

Houston will jump out to a 21-7 lead behind gunslinger Case Keenum by halftime.  The problem for the Cougars is that the Nittany Lions have halftime to adjust to the Cougars' high powered offense. 

The Nittany Lions undoubtedly will adjust.  

The Nittany Lions will hold the Cougars to only seven points in the entire second half, and will realize what they need to do to win the game, run the ball. 

The Nittany Lions will abandon their passing game almost entirely in the second half and rely on the legs of Silas Redd and Stephfon Green to win the game.  When the Cougars defense keys on the Nittany Lions running game, look for the wildcat formation to help keep the defense on their toes. 

The Nittany Lions will win the Ticket City Bowl, proving that they are still a dominant team that relies on defense to win games.  Houston will prove once and for all  that they never deserved to be in the national championship conversation. 

Prediction:

No. 21 Penn State Nittany Lions 31, No. 19 Houston Cougars 28 

Outback Bowl: No. 17 Michigan State (27) vs. No. 16 Georgia (23)

The Outback Bowl provides us with a great Big Ten vs. SEC matchup of two teams that were one game away from winning the championship games of their respective conferences. 

The main difference between Michigan State and Georgia is that one of them proved they couldn't handle the top-tier competition of the SEC, and the other proved they were one terrible penalty away from being the Big Ten champion.

After Georgia's 0-2 start it is amazing that they are even playing in a bowl game, nevertheless the Outback Bowl against Michigan State.  Both teams will undoubtedly still be feeling the pain from their conference championship losses, but they will also be motivated to show a national audience what they are really made of.  

It's uncanny how identical these two teams are statistically speaking.  Just look at these comparisons, passing yards per game (Spartans 247, Bulldogs 241), rushing yards per game (Bulldogs 172, Spartans 143), points per game (Spartans 31, Bulldogs 32) and points allowed per game (Spartans 17.5, Bulldogs 19.6).

I truly think the difference maker in this classic bowl game will be the play of special teams, and I will always give that advantage to Mike D'Antoni and his Spartans.  Michigan State will win the game on a fourth quarter touchdown drive sparked by a fake field goal or punt.

Prediction:

No. 17 Michigan State Spartans 27, No. 16 Georgia Bulldogs 23

Rose Bowl "The Granddaddy of Em All": No. 10 Wisconsin (38) No. 5 Oregon (31)

Oregon against Wisconsin has the potential to be one of the greatest BCS matchups of the 2011-2012 bowl season.  It pits a high flying spread offense against a dominant traditional offense powered by running back and Heisman candidate Montee Ball. 

While both Oregon and Wisconsin have the potential to put up astronomical numbers offensively, the big difference maker in this game will be the play of Wisconsin's defense who ranks sixth nationally in giving up only 17 points per game.  

While I don't think Wisconsin will hold Oregon to their 17 point per game average, the Ducks will be held well below their 46.2 points per game average.  The last time the Ducks saw a a defense this good was the first game of the season against LSU and their second ranked defense. The end result of that game will mirror the end result of the Rose bowl, an Oregon loss. 

The Ducks took a big hit when they announced the dismissal of star cornerback Cliff Harris from their team earlier today.  I know it is just one player, but losing Cliff Harris means another Duck's cornerback will have to step up and blanket Badger's star wide receiver Nick Toon, which will leave wide reciever Jared Abbrederis in a mismatch, for sure.

Losing Cliff Harris could be the nail in the coffin for the Ducks, because if they try to anchor down the Badger's run game the passing game will open up dramatically and vica versa. 

The Wisconsin Badgers will come out of the Rose Bowl with a statement win against the Oregon Ducks and a huge win for the Big Ten conference.  

Prediction: 

No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers 38, No. 5 Oregon Ducks 31 

After all the dust settles, the bowl season will end with the Big Ten earning a 7-3 record.