2011 Bowl Projections: Breaking Down Odds to Play in the Five BCS Bowls

Its the most wonderful time of the year unless of course you have beef and live in Stillwater. The Oklahoma State Cowboys want a piece of the LSU Tigers, but will they get a piece of them?

Also, who will play in the other four BCS Bowls?

The Houston Cougars were a mortal lock to appear in the BCS for the first time among any Conference USA team at least until they were flattened in their own backyard by the Southern Miss Golden Eagles.

Sorry Larry Fedora, but I can't even consider your team on account you lost to Marshall and UAB!

The official BCS countdown begins right now with your best odds on who will land where!

LSU Tigers: BCS National Championship

Talk about one of the most talented and accomplished BCS teams we have ever seen through 13 games!

LSU has knocked off and abused three Top 10 teams in the BCS Rankings and they are now just one more win away from claiming their third BCS crown (would be most since era started '98).

The biggest question that some are still wondering is not if LSU plays for it all, but rather on who they will be playing?

BCS Title Odds: 100 percent

Alabama Crimson Tide: BCS National Championship

Of course the majority of voters need to heavily lean towards Oklahoma State to avoid an All-SEC BCS National Championship.

Alabama already played LSU, but this is all about having the two best teams play for all the marbles. It is amazing on how many people are starting to all of a sudden just pick the Cowboys.

Sure, they smoked Oklahoma (who is down this year due to injuries) for the first time in eight seasons, but they still lost to Iowa State on the road.

If you think Alabama doesn't deserve a shot just listen to Alabama tight end Brad Smelley, "Every1 can argue up and down about this, but if we lost to a 6-6 Vandy team this yr, we would be out of the NC game picture ." 

BCS Title Odds: 75 percent

Oklahoma State Cowboys: BCS Fiesta Bowl

Appearing in your programs first-ever BCS Bowl is quite an accomplishment, but beating Oklahoma for the first time in eight seasons is clearly as good as it gets, almost.

The Cowboys have about a 25 percent chance to play in the BCS National Championship, but they will need the majority of the computer rankings to have them at worst No. 3, and then hope the pollster move them up ahead of Alabama in both the Harris and Coaches/USA Today Poll.

More likely than not they will be playing in the BCS Fiesta Bowl in a game that will be highly anticipated if the matchup goes as planned.

BCS Fiesta Bowl Odds: 75 percent

Stanford Cardinal: BCS Fiesta Bowl

Why is the blue number only 99? Well, they did not lock up a BCS bid since they are in the top four of the BCS barring they drop since they did not play, but there is the smallest of chances that they land in the Sugar Bowl.

The Sugar Bowl would get the top selection in the BCS process if both LSU and Alabama matchup against one another. The first selection in the Sugar Bowl would be known as their "money pick" since the first selection should be used for a team that either travels extremely well or has a certain player(s) that America would love to see.

I think Andrew Luck could fit that bill, though the Fiesta Bowl looks to be a near mortal lock because there is another team who should get selected in the Sugar Bowl. 

BCS Fiesta Bowl Odds: 99 percent

Michigan Wolverines: BCS Sugar Bowl

The Michigan Wolverines got to sit back and relax for once as the college football regular season and championship weekend came to a conclusion.

The chaos was remarkable with a few thrilling finishes (See Badgers-Spartans) and know we will await the official word of the BCS Selection Show later tonight (8:15 ET ESPN).

However, with Georgia losing big to LSU and even with Michigan State losing close there is a great chance that Michigan will surpass one if not both of these teams. Sparty did lose on a tough call to end the game that came down to the wire, but Michigan should still leapfrog Oklahoma, Houston and even perhaps Virginia Tech.

They were ranked at No. 16 just one week ago and will likely move up several spots which would allow them eligible for a BCS at-large bid. It would also make the Wolverines as the favorites to replace the SEC in the Sugar Bowl because of how well they travel (most wins of all time).

BCS Sugar Bowl Odds: 99 percent

Boise State Broncos: BCS Sugar Bowl

Boise State throttled New Mexico 45-0 as Kellen Moore and the majority of the starters played just three quarters.

However, the Broncos still need some luck and we may know before the BCS Selection Show is on television tonight.

TCU must crack the Top 16 in the BCS Rankings, but the AP and Coaches Poll comes out just after lunch in the east coast and we need to see how far the likes of Houston, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma drop to.

Would you drop all three behind TCU or just a few of them? Also, do not forget about Georgia and Michigan State who also lost.

Those five teams were all ahead of TCU in last weekend's BCS, but they need to just pass two or three of those teams since Clemson could perhaps leapfrog (no pun intended )the Horned Frogs.

TCU did defeat Boise State on the blue rug, but they also to SMU at home whereas Boise State did not lose any other games plus they defeated Georgia in its own backyard.

Will TCU rank ahead of two or more teams? That is the question because if they do then it will be TCU that appears in the Sugar Bowl. If not, then smurfs around the world will praise the BCS and rejoice.

BCS Sugar Bowl Odds: 45 percent

TCU Horned Frogs: BCS Sugar Bowl

The Horned Frogs have to do exactly what I just stated under Boise State, but do the Broncos have a legit beef since they lost to the Horned Frogs?

TCU has appeared in two BCS Bowls (1-1) whereas the Broncos have not lost yet in the BCS (2-0) and they travel arguably just as well as TCU does.

The Broncos' previous BCS success could play a role, but the Horned Frogs did just come off a Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin in a classic game.

Still, we should not look at what these teams have already accomplished but rather on who is the better team.

It may sound simple since the Broncos already lost to TCU on their home field, but would it happen again or was that game more of a so-called fluke?

BCS Sugar or Orange Bowl Odds: 35 percent

Note: TCU has chance of getting passed up by West Virginia for Sugar Bowl, read final slide for full explanation

Kansas State Wildcats: BCS Sugar Bowl

The BCS guru Brad Edwards has voiced his own opinion, and I will do the same. Kansas State is a very good team and would be a solid choice to appear in a BCS Bowl.

However, at the end of the day the eye ball test does not give the Wildcats the greatest of chances of appearing in a BCS Bowl.

Plus, they would more than likely need Alabama to fall out of the BCS National Championship since the Sugar Bowl would then select Alabama virtue of the SEC-tie in. 

If Alabama plays for it all, Michigan would likely get selected first and then would take TCU (if in Top 16) or Boise State over the Wildcats.

Bill Snyder deserves to win the Coach of the Year and should be right there with Les Miles for such a prestigious award, but the odds are surely not in favor of the boys from Manhattan. 

BCS Sugar Bowl Odds: 20 percent

Virginia Tech Hokies: BCS Sugar Bowl

Those Hokies had a chance to secure a BCS bid by virtue of the automatic tie-in that the ACC has with the Discover Orange Bowl.

Logan Thomas fumbled on the opening snap of the ball game and star defensive back Jayron Hosely was injured right away and never returned.

Tajh Boyd was able to torched the Hokies when it mattered most and Virginia Tech played one of their worst games of the season when it mattered most.

Even superstar runner David Wilson was dinged up and could not even stay on the field rather be effective. It is safe to say that the Hokies had their chance and fell flat on their faces. 

BCS Sugar Bowl Odds: Less than 1 percent (Chick-Fil-A likely)

Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers and the Ducks both won their conference championships though neither won it by as much as the "experts" had expected. Still, it doesn't matter how you do it rather if you do it.

Oregon and Wisconsin could give us one of the most entertaining Rose Bowls we may ever see (non-BCS Title, USC-TX) because of how explosive both offenses are.

The defenses are not bad unless you compare them to Alabama and LSU, but having the two most productive running backs in the nation will allow some fans to foam at the mouth.

Montee Ball and LaMichael James can go bonkers on any given play and the two quarterbacks are fairly comparable and at the same time completely different. 

Both are athletic and mobile in the pocket, but everybody knows who Russell Wilson is and yet Darron Thomas could not even garner an honorable mention in the Pac-12 postseason awards.

The Ducks appeared in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago in a close loss to Ohio State, so they will certainly play with a chip on their shoulder in front of a national audience. Also, Wisconsin just lost in the Rose Bowl one season ago, so they too will have a ton to play for!

Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

The Clemson Tigers and the West Virginia Mountaineers both overcame a ton of odds, but are both worthy of playing in the BCS?

After all, Clemson just beat up Virginia Tech for the second time of the season and had it not been for the Tigers who knows where the Hokies would be right now.

Tajh Boyd and Geno Smith are two exceptional quarterbacks in the spread offense and they have a ton of tools around them that allows them to succeed.

This matchup is almost a guarantee unless TCU jumps into the picture. There is a small chance that TCU plays in this bowl and that West Virginia would play in the Sugar Bowl against Michigan.

The Big East is fairly close to Louisiana which makes it a small possibility for the Mountaineers to be selected ahead of TCU. The Sugar Bowl gets the first selection if Alabama plays LSU.

Next up is the Fiesta Bowl which would likely select Stanford (OK ST auto tie-in) which gives the Sugar Bowl another selection to make.

Confused yet? Didn't think so.

The Sugar Bowl would then decide on several teams but it really depends if TCU cracks the Top 16. If they do then they would likely get passed up for a West Virginia team that travels a tad better.

The Orange Bowl would then of course be forced to take TCU per rules of Top 16 for non-automatic qualifier finishing ahead of a BCS conference winners.

Orange Bowl Odds: Clemson vs. West Virginia 65 percent

Orange Bowl Odds: Clemson vs. TCU 35 percent