NFL Week 17 Picks

All Good Things Must Come to an End

Unfortunately, that time of year has arrived.  The last day of the NFL season is a mere five days away. But we knew this day was coming.  After all, there are so many signs that the best 17 weeks of the year are slowly coming to an end. Santa Claus has been cloned and is invading malls across America. The NHL is getting more and more highlights. The Yankees are buying every free agent possible. Brett Favre is talking about retirement. About 83% of all commercials have the word "gift" in them or have a red ribbon attached to a product.

As much as we wish we weren't in this position, we have to face reality that we'll be stuck watching a fight between three teams (Lakers, Celtics, Cavs) in a mediocre NBA season until the draft.  God help us.

Now for the picks (winner in caps):

St. Louis @ ATLANTA:

Matt Ryan is my new favorite player.  What a story for this kid and this franchise.  After the Ron Mexico/Bobby Petrino incident, I don't think anyone wanted to work or play for the Falcons.  Arthur Blank lucked out here getting Mike Smith and Matt Ryan.  Regardless of how the Falcons do in the playoffs, this has been one hell of a season.

NEW ENGLAND @ Buffalo:

Bill Belicheck should get the Coach of the Year award (although that award will probably go to the Dolphins' Tony Sparano or Atlanta's Smith) for leading his team to the brink of the playoffs without arguably the best quarterback in the game today.  Get excited, Lions fans.  We're just a few months away from your front office grossly overspending for Matt Cassel.

Note:  There's been a lot, a LOT of talk recently about whether the Patriots should trade Tom Brady and keep Matt Cassel.  To those who agree with that idea, I say that you should lay off the recreational pharmaceuticals.  Look, don't get me wrong, Cassel has done a marvelous job.  But you're talking about Tom Brady.  This is a guy who won a Super Bowl with Reche Caldwell and David Givens as his receivers.  People forget that Brady won those Super Bowls with a less-than-stellar offense, and that Cassel inherited a 16-0 team with one of the best offensive lines, two of the best receivers in the game, and an easy schedule.  Franchise Cassel, and trade him away before the pre-season once we realize that Brady is perfectly okay.

KANSAS CITY @ Cincinnati:

If Tyler Thigpen is not the starting quarterback of this team next year, it will be one of the stupidest decisions by whoever the new GM will be.  Keep Herm Edwards and let him build on this.  Just let him.  He may have a pretty decent quarterback in the making.

Detroit @ GREEN BAY:

I wanted to pick Detroit so badly.  I actually typed Detroit in all caps before realizing that they're playing in the cold, at a place where they haven't won since 1991.  Yes, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been bad.  But one season after having a 16-0 team, wouldn't it just be cool to see an 0-16 team?  I say yes.

TENNESSEE @ Indianapolis:

My boy Vince Young will light up the second string Indianapolis defense and have all the pride in the world before he realizes that he lost his job to a 35-year old quarterback who still wants to be a country music star.  What's the over/under on Kerry Collins disappearing again?

Note: Peyton Manning is the NFL's MVP leading the NFL's hottest team into the playoffs.  In a league where momentum is everything, why isn't anything talking about the Colts as the Super Bowl favorites?

New York Giants @ MINNESOTA:

I wish I had the heart to bet against Minnesota and Tarvaris Jackson, but I can't help but think that maybe he's getting better.  Besides, the Giants should be resting their players, and I just have to think that Adrian Peterson will have a big game.  Minnesota locks up the NFC North with the win.

Note: According to ESPN.com, guns were found in Plaxico Burress' home.  Think this'll cause a distraction for the G-Men going into the playoffs?

Carolina @ NEW ORLEANS:

My gut is telling me Carolina, but my heart is telling me to pick fellow-Austinite Drew Brees and the Saints.  When will these guys actually live up to expectations and make the playoffs again?  In a season where everything that we wished for or imagined has actually happened (a winless team, everyone outside of New England hoping Brady would go down, a feel good story in the Dolphins/Falcons), why can't we have someone keep every fan in NO watching this game on the edge of their seats as Brees ALMOST breaks Dan Marino's record?  I say Brees get's 401 yards (he needs 402), and has his last pass picked off by Chris Gamble.  It's just been that kind of season.

Cleveland @ PITTSBURGH:

Romeo Crennel has perfected the Art Shell face, Braylon Edwards is turning into a smaller version of T.O., Cleveland's golden boy Brady Quinn is getting sucker punched.  Bill Cowher, good luck.

Oakland @ TAMPA BAY:

Monte Kiffin will not go out with a loss.  Is there anything really else to say about this game? 

Chicago @ HOUSTON:

We're about two months away from the "Houston is the sleeper team of '09!" talk.  Wait...weren't they also the sleeper team of '08?  Here's my theory.  Whenever someone names a team a "sleeper" team, wait about three years before they shock everyone.  It happened with the Arizona Cardinals too.  Well, thats not to say that the Cardinals are shocking anyone.  But you know what I mean. 

Washington @ SAN FRANCISCO:

The 49ers could also join the Texans as the "surprise" team of '09.  Only difference is that the 49ers might actually surprise people.  Assuming they hire Mike Holmgren as GM, Mike Singletary as head coach, get Matt Cassel as quarterback, and find a reliable number one receiver. 

Note: How many people think Jim Zorn did another "hip hip hooray" chant after he found out he was keeping his job next year?

Jacksonville @ BALTIMORE:

This will be a close game up until about 2 minutes left, when Maurice Jones-Drew will break off back-to-back 75+ yard runs and break the hearts of Ravens fans everywhere.....oh who am I kidding.  Only one team would allow that (ugh Romo).  Ravens win easily.

MIAMI @ New York Jets:

Brett Favre's last game.  Mark my words.  Favre is done after this year.  He'll go back to his little farm in Mississippi and film about 25 more jeans commercials and force a fake smile on his face while dropping back to throw.  I can't pick against Chad Pennington going back to NY and sticking it to the Jets' fans.  The Dolphins are another one of those stories (the Falcons are the other) you just don't want to see end.  The Fish win and get into the playoffs.

DALLAS @ Philadelphia:

The only reason I'm actually picking the Cowboys to win this game is that I don't trust Donovan McNabb when he throws the ball 86 times a game.  Only in Philly will you see your franchise quarterback and one of the best head coaches in the game get booed in their last games in the city.

Seattle @ ARIZONA:

Does anyone even care?  We know the Cardinals aren't getting out of the first round of the playoffs.  I'm picking them to win just because I like Larry Fitzgerald. 

Denver @ SAN DIEGO:

Philip Rivers is having the quietest season of any quarterback in the NFL, and he's also having the best.  He leads the league in quarterback rating, is fifth in yards, and first in touchdowns.  If it weren't for a terrible defense and a maybe washed-up L.T., Rivers would be the prime candidate for MVP.  Maybe that whole nice guy attitude works for him. 

Note: Philip Rivers will not be a nice guy to the Denver secondary.  Or to Jay Cutler.

Playoff Predictions:

So, now the playoffs, assuming my Week 17 predictions are correct, should look like this:

AFC:

Wild Card:

No. 5 Indianapolis over No. 4 San Diego

No. 6 Baltimore over No. 3 Miami

Divisional:

No. 1 Tennessee over No. 6 Baltimore

No. 5 Indianapolis over No. 2 Pittsburgh

AFC Championship:

No. 5 Indianapolis over No. 1 Tennessee

NFC:

Wild Card:

No. 6 Dallas over No. 3 Minnesota

(I really, really, don't trust Tony Romo right now, but I really, really, really don't trust Tarvaris Jackson in a playoff game either.)

No. 5 Carolina over No. 4 Arizona

Divisional:

No. 1 New York  over No. 6 Dallas

No. 5 Carolina over No. 2 Atlanta

NFC Championship:

No. 5 Carolina over No. 1 New York

(I had a lot of trouble with this pick.  In all honesty, this could go either way.  But I'm terribly frightened of seeing a Manning vs. Manning Super Bowl.)

Super Bowl:

Indianapolis over Carolina.