What Larry Coyer Firing Means for Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

The dismissal of Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Larry Coyer earlier this week registered little surprise amongst NFL fans. On an 0-11 team conceding almost 30 points per game, the status quo couldn't continue for much longer.

Coyer can boast plenty of highlights on his 16-year resume in the NFL. His work grabbed mainstream attention between 2003 and 2006 as the Denver Broncos coordinator; his defensive unit ranked in the top five each season, carrying the Broncos all the way to an AFC Championship game in 2005.

Add in a postseason appearance with Tampa Bay in 2007, and a trip to the Super Bowl in 2009 with the Colts, and you have a coach whose reputation is proven—if not spectacular—despite recent events.

But regardless of whether Coyer deserved to fall midseason—and I believe he did—the Colts' front office could no longer endorse the situation with their silence. Decisive action was needed, and taken.

That leaves Mike Murphy in charge of play-calling; a man who has coached Colts linebackers for the past 14 seasons. His first assignment as defensive coordinator? Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, on the road. The following week? The Ravens, in Baltimore.

Whatever Murphy thinks of his promotion, he won't be thanking the Polians for the timing of the decision.

Clearly the firing of Coyer, and the Dan Orlovsky for Curtis Painter switch at quarterback, are the big stories leading into Sunday's matchup at Gillette Stadium. But what are the implications of the coaching re-shuffle, on both the game and the wider context of the season?

The Colts now know that jobs are on the line

Starting a season by losing 11 straight guarantees a few casualties. The Colts know this, from the head coach down to the fifth cornerback, and linebacker Pat Angerer summed it up best (via The Indianapolis Star) when he said, "When you're 0-11, you've got to play like your job's on the line. It should be. What have we done to not have it on the line?"

Whilst firing a coordinator and benching a quarterback is just the tip of the iceberg—the house-clearing begins in earnest this coming offseason—it does feel like a new beginning of sorts.

Starting Sunday, expect the Colts to treat the situation like a five-game job interview. Behind closed doors, there will have been harsh words exchanged this week, and the players will want to respond out on the field.

Throw in the added spice of a rivalry game, and there will be no shortage of emotion. Is that enough in itself? No, but it's a start.

The Patriots motivated by rivalry, wary of resurgence

Bill Belichick might be the most boring quote in the NFL. Rarely does he stray from the party line of "doing what's best for the football team," and bulletin-board material is his pet hate—just ask Wes Welker.

Therefore, one of the best ways to get a rise out of the Patriots head coach is to invite him to disrespect the opposition. After weeks of reminding the media that "records don't matter," there are no prizes for guessing Belichick's response to one reporter, who suggested that the Patriots can't measure their progress effectively against losing opposition.

Here it is in full:

"

I don't agree with that, so you can go ahead on your soliloquy, but I just don't agree with that. You don't think you can gauge a team based on how a player blocks Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis? Who else would you gauge it against? Are you kidding me? Covering Reggie Wayne and [Austin] Collie and [Pierre] Garcon—you don't think you can gauge your coverage based on those players? I don't care what their record is. You think there are better receivers around than them? Better pass rushers than Freeney and Mathis? I'm not sure what games you're watching here.

"

The message might have been repeated by players during the week, but the veterans on this team are not simply paying lip service to Belichick's approach.

The Patriots are 2-4 versus the Colts in the past five seasons. They've had their share of tough losses, and regard this as one of the marquee fixtures on the schedule. 

You'd never catch Brady saying it, but it would kill him to allow the Colts their first win of the season, and with the best motivator the league in Belichick, the duo will ensure that there is no room for complacency.

More aggressive play-calling from Murphy?

Let's face it. After Coyer's departure, there is little or no time for Mike Murphy to put his stamp on the defensive scheme. The playbook used last Sunday will look almost identical to the one the Colts take to Foxborough.

However, given the urgency of the situation—with the Colts playing for their jobs—something has to change. After all, their conservative style has left them ranked 29th in yards allowed, and last in points.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, when the Colts send four or fewer pass rushers at the opposition quarterback, he completes nearly 74 percent of his passes, which ranks dead last in the NFL. Given that Coyer called for this on four out of every five passing plays, you can see why the unit has struggled all season.

So what can Murphy change, to make an impact?

The longtime linebackers coach may be tempted to dial up interior pressure on Tom Brady, who has struggled in that department this year, helped in no way by the loss of starting center Dan Koppen in Week 1.

With all the focus on Freeney and Mathis on the edges, sending Pat Angerer or Philip Wheeler on a blitz through the middle makes some sense.

Do it too often, though, and Brady will adjust quickly. He and Peyton Manning are the best in the league at reading the blitz pre-snap, making protection adjustments and calling audibles into quick slants or short outs.

In reality, the Colts' defense is damned if they do, damned if they don't on Sunday. But the use of a new wrinkle or two in the scheme may slow Brady down a little.

Brady can sleep a little easier

Coyer may have left Indianapolis under a cloud, and many Colts fans are relieved to see the back of him. But nobody is more grateful for the move than Brady.

Between 2000 and 2006 on the Broncos' payroll, Coyer was involved in five wins over the Patriots, and toward the end of his tenure there became the chief architect of some aggressive blitz schemes that shut Brady down with regularity.

He might not have had the same personnel to work with in the past few seasons, but Coyer's defenses haunt Brady's past.

No change in outcome

Any on-field adjustments brought about by the week's events pale in significance to the simple fact that this game is a mismatch. You only have to look at the 21-point spread set by Vegas to know that Dan Orlovsky will struggle to match Brady's scoring pace.

Mike Murphy and motivational speeches have the potential to fire up the Colts enough to keep the game close, but the Patriots are formidable opponents at Gillette Stadium.

But the biggest worry for Jim Caldwell's men is their record against elite quarterbacks this season. Against the best from their schedule—Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan—the Colts have conceded 34, 23, 62 and 31 points respectively.

If New England races out to an early lead, any renewed hope might dissolve quickly for Indy, so the blowout can't be ruled out.

Normal service can resume next season in what has been the most competitive rivalry over the last decade. This year however, it's a question of damage; how much can the Patriots inflict, and how much can the Colts limit? I think I know my answer.

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickbutterworth