Duke: How the Blue Devils Will Fare in the ACC

The Duke Blue Devils are currently 10-1 with its lone loss on Dec. 6 at Michigan. Duke collected two tournament-résumé wins at Purdue and vs. Xavier on a neutral floor. Elsewhere, the Blue Devils have blown out the remainder of its schedule with the exception of a three-point win over Rhode Island at home.

Duke is ranked fifth in both the AP poll and the ESPN/USA Today poll. In front of the Blue Devils are unbeatens North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, and Oklahoma.

Coming into the season, Duke was ranked eighth and fifth in the polls, respectively. Experts predicted that the team would be better than last season, based on its returning experience and newfound depth.

Though improving on a record like 28-6 is often difficult, Duke is capable of doing so.

After reaching the Sweet 16 in nine consecutive NCAA tournaments, the last two Duke teams have not done so, earning just one win in the program’s last two appearances.

This season, Duke is looking to not only regain its swagger in the NCAA tournament, but to challenge North Carolina and others for the ACC regular season title as well.

Non-Conference Recap

One of the most notable changes from last year’s team is the addition of point guard Nolan Smith to the starting lineup instead of three-year starter Greg Paulus. Smith provides tremendous on-ball pressure defensively that creates a needed sense of urgency for the team to begin games.

Paulus has handled his new role appropriately. The senior brings leadership off of the bench and continues to be a great communicator to his teammates despite his offensive statistics taking a dive compared to last season.

Duke began the season with blowout wins vs. Presbyterian and Georgia Southern. Five days later, the Blue Devils dismissed Rhode Island at home with the aforementioned 81-78 victory.

Then, Duke participated in 2K Sports Classic benefiting Coaches vs. Cancer. In the semifinals, Duke handled Southern Illinois to advance to the title game. And while America anticipated a big-time showdown between Duke and UCLA, the Michigan Wolverines had other intentions, upsetting the Bruins to move on and face Duke.

The Blue Devils were able to avoid upset-hungry Michigan, as Duke put forth a great defensive effort en route to a 71-56 win. Following the game, the rematch in Ann Arbor was well documented as an opportunity to claim revenge in a buried rivalry.

Following back-to-back games in the 2K Classic, Duke beat Montana two days later. Next, the Blue Devils disposed of Duquesne at home before embarking upon the team’s toughest four game stretch of the season: at Purdue, at Michigan, home vs. UNC Asheville, and against Xavier in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

On Dec. 2, the Blue Devils faced Purdue on the road. The contest figured to be a great game between two similar teams, but Duke held Purdue without a field goal for over four minutes to start the game. During that time, the Blue Devils built a 7-0 lead that grew to as much as 20 at one point in the second half and resulted in a 76-60 Duke win.

In the rematch, Duke struggled to shoot the ball in the game, namely with three-pointers (7-for-33) in the loss to Michigan. The home crowd aided the Wolverines by never allowing Duke to feel comfortable in the road environment.

Against UNC Asheville, Coach Krzyzewski elected to bench the starters. The wake-up call proved to be successful, as the Blue Devils routed the Bulldogs in Durham, 99-56.

Next for Duke was the top-10 showdown in East Rutherford, New Jersey, vs. unbeaten Xavier. The Blue Devils stormed out to an 18-1 advantage to open the game. The lead was 31 at halftime, and Duke staved off a brief Xavier comeback in the second half, winning 82-64.

Loyola (Maryland), Davidson, and Georgetown remain on the non-conference schedule before Duke gets into the bulk of ACC play.


Conference Outlook

In the conference, North Carolina is the favorite to win not only the ACC regular season and tournament titles but the national championship as well. The Tar Heels’ depth and experience are their foundation, and attaining an undefeated season is possible for North Carolina.

Following the Tar Heels is a slew of teams, including Duke, that will fight for position in top half of the conference. These teams are Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, Miami, and Wake Forest.

Within the conference, a host of players are capable of individually taking over a game. Such players include North Carolina’s Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, Boston College’s Tyrese Rice, and Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez.

Regardless of the team, playing an ACC schedule is always tough. ACC fans are among the best in college basketball and can create uneasy environments for any team. Duke’s fans, notoriously known as “The Cameron Crazies,” aid the Blue Devils in harassing visiting opponents.

Next, I provide three predictions for Duke in regards to its success in conference play, its success in the NCAA tournament, and the conference’s success in the NCAA tournament.

When Duke plays at its potential, it is clearly the second-best team in the conference behind North Carolina. However, as seen in the Michigan loss, Duke is prone to poor shooting performances that can lead to upsets. And since the conference is so competitive from top to bottom, the Blue Devils may slip up a few times as the season progresses.

Though the Blue Devils are not loaded with talent, often they do enough little things correct to win games. This will help Duke in its effort to survive a brutal ACC schedule. All in all, the Blue Devils should achieve a relatively successful ACC campaign this season.

Prediction: Duke will have four conference losses.

Upon entering the NCAA tournament, Duke must play consistently in order to advance. But first, the key to Duke’s postseason life is to start fast. Like the games vs. Purdue and Xavier, building a large lead early was critical to winning the games. If Duke can dominate teams early, the chances they advance deep into the tournament increase tremendously.

At this point in the season, however, whether Duke can play well early in every game is still unclear. But when Duke does play well, it can beat any opponent in the country. However, an early exit is more likely than a Final Four appearance, as evidenced by the program’s two previous tournament outcomes.

Prediction: Duke will win two tournament games and then lose in the regional semifinal.

Lastly, the ACC appears to be the second-best conference in the country. Behind the Big East and ahead of the Big Ten, the ACC is ultra-competitive conference with a stable of very good teams.

Each team is unique in terms of the strategy it uses to win games. No coaching staff is alike. And the best players own skill sets unlike their peers. As a result, the conference collectively enjoys one common component, postseason success, as evidenced by recent national championships from Duke in 2001, Maryland in 2002, and North Carolina in 2005. 

Because of the depth of the ACC and its top players, the conference should be able to have moderate success in the NCAA tournament. Duke and North Carolina are capable of reaching the national championship. And others like Wake Forest, Clemson, and Maryland can make an appearance in the Elite Eight.

Prediction: The ACC will gets six at-large bids in the NCAA tournament, and the conference will get one team in the Final Four and four in the Sweet 16.


Of course, the path to the postseason is always a remarkable journey. But sometimes the ACC tournament is even better. Then, March Madness arrives. A month-long celebration of college basketball that enthralls college basketball fans.

The possibilities within the tournament put fans in a trance, as we hope our favorite ACC team moves on, as we hope our bracket doesn’t bust, and as we hope that Cinderella can crash the party (as long as it’s not against our favorite ACC team).