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EPIC NFL Thanksgiving Slate 🙌

NFL Week 13 Picks: Odds Every Road Team Leaves with a Win

Andrea HangstDec 1, 2011

Road wins are never easy, no matter how heavily favored the visiting team may be. Just the act of traveling a long distance, into another time zone, can be enough of a disadvantage to limit a team's effectiveness.

With that in mind, let's examine every game on the schedule for Week 13 and see what each road team's chances are of pulling out a victory.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks

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Two 4-7 teams clash on Thursday night in a battle of... well, it's all but meaningless in terms of playoff implications, but should the Eagles not manage a win, this game could easily be the final nail in head coach Andy Reid's coffin.

It's no secret that the Eagles' grand experiment in free agency hasn't panned out as planned, and it's no secret that the Seahawks are the same bad-to-middling team they were last year (despite making the postseason with a 7-9 record).

Seattle has managed surprising wins over the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens this year and are a dangerous team at home. While the Eagles should win this contest, it's going to be close.

Chances the Eagles win: 55 percent

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

One of the luckiest teams in football in 2010, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pendulum has swung the other way this year. They sit at 4-7, with little to no chance to make the postseason, and have lost their last five games.

The Carolina Panthers are just 3-8 on the year, despite the team's offense playing extremely well. Their inability to stop their opponents in crucial moments has cost the Panthers a number of close games, and that defense will prove to be a liability again this week. The Bucs will snap their losing streak at home on Sunday.

Chances the Panthers win: 44 percent

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

With a playoff berth on the line and the Pittsburgh Steelers already up one game on the Cincinnati Bengals, this is one of the more important games of Week 13. Add into that the fact that the Bengals play better against the Steelers when in Pittsburgh rather than at home and it makes this game likely a much closer contest than it appears at first glance.

However, the Steelers are just too tough. Granted, they'll likely let the Bengals hang in the game longer than they should, but a road win just won't come for Cincinnati this week.

Chances the Bengals win: 35 percent

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans

Even with T.J. Yates under center for the Houston Texans, this is still a compelling matchup that should end with a close score. Both teams are strong in the running game and generally competent when passing the ball (however, Yates is a very unknown quantity at this point).

Defense coupled with offensive mistakes (or the lack thereof) will be what this game hinges upon, with the Falcons narrowly edging out Houston and nabbing the road win.

Chances the Falcons win: 70 percent

New York Jets at Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins were on a six-game losing streak until they defeated the Seattle Seahawks last week, and the New York Jets have been streaky all season, winning three in a row here, losing three in a row there.

That's not the kind of play that will take the Jets to their third consecutive AFC championship game, however it may be enough to best the Redskins in what is shaping up to be a close contest this Sunday. Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez is error-prone, to be sure, but Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman is even more so.

Chances the Jets win: 60 percent

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

What a difference a year makes. In 2010, this would be a marquee matchup, perhaps even one flexed out to a prime time spot. This year, the Colts are 0-11 while the Patriots are gearing up for yet another late-season push that should see them at the top of their conference when all is said and done.

This is clearly the mismatch of the week. While it's no secret that teams can put up points against the Patriots' rag-tag defense, there's little chance the Colts can do enough on either side of the ball to best New England this week.

Chances the Colts win: Two percent

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

The Oakland Raiders have managed just fine without quarterback Jason Campbell and running back Darren McFadden so far, with Carson Palmer and Michael Bush handling the offensive workload just fine.

While the Dolphins have managed to turn their season around somewhat, winning three games in a row after losing their first seven of the year and dropping to the Dallas Cowboys by just one point in Week 12, I don't see them besting the Raiders while they're on their quest to hold onto the top spot in the AFC West.

Chances the Raiders win: 70 percent

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings

Considering how many close games both the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings have been in this season, there's little reason to think that this one won't end within seven points either. The Vikings appear to have drafted the right quarterback for the team in Christian Ponder and the Denver Broncos have found a way to succeed with Tim Tebow under center despite his issues accurately passing the ball.

No Adrian Peterson on the ground for Minnesota and no Von Miller on defense for the Broncos makes this an even more interesting contest. But in the battle of the Christian quarterbacks, it's Tebow and his team's clutch play that will end up victorious this week.

Chances the Broncos win: 55 percent

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

The Tennessee Titans have seemingly caught a break in their quest to grab the AFC South title, with the Houston Texans losing two starting quarterbacks in a three week span. At the same time, however, the Titans have been inconsistent and haven't built much of a case for themselves as the division's best.

Buffalo started the year strongly but have faded down the stretch, as the team's defense has continued to allow opponents to run and pass all over them. At the same time, injuries have damaged the team's once-formidable offense.

The Bills have a good shot to win at home, but I don't see their defense holding together through four quarters.

Chances the Titans win: 60 percent

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears may be relying on quarterback Caleb Hanie to take them into the postseason now that starter Jay Cutler is injured, but Hanie is still a better option than the Chiefs' starting quarterback, Tyler Palko.

Palko will get the go this week despite the team signing Kyle Orton, a former Bear himself, in Week 11. The Chiefs displayed quite a tough pass rush in Week 12 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that's a rare showing that won't repeat itself this week. The Bears' run game combined with their high-caliber defense will prevent Kansas City from nabbing the ever-elusive road win.

Chances the Chiefs win: 25 percent

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Second to the above-mentioned Colts-Patriots contest in terms of mismatches is this week's tilt between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are one of the worst teams in football, and their defensive stats—which say the team is near the top of the league in defending the pass—are skewed simply because they haven't played many offensive powerhouses this season.

While Baltimore isn't much of an offensive powerhouse itself, that defense is going to hold the Browns to very few points. In fact, Cleveland might just find themselves shut out at home this week.

Chances the Ravens win: 97 percent

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

Despite their four-game win streak, one still never knows which Dallas Cowboys squad will be taking the field on a week-to-week basis. They've certainly gotten better on offense now that quarterback Tony Romo doesn't have to shoulder the entire responsibility on his own, and he'll be helped out this week by the return of wide receiver Miles Austin.

Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb should return this week, signaling an uptick in an offense held down by having John Skelton under center while Kolb recovered from a number of foot ailments. Controlling wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and running back Beanie Wells will be the Cowboys' top priority after, of course, trying to score points.

Dallas should manage the road victory, but I don't see it coming easily.

Chances the Cowboys win: 65 percent

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

The Green Bay Packers, at 11-0, seem unstoppable this year. Firing on all cylinders on offense and performing well on defense, Green Bay has parlayed a 2010 Super Bowl victory into a season that appears tailor-made for a repeat performance.

The New York Giants, on the other hand, are on a three-game slide, fueled by error-filled play on offense and a flattening of the team's once-dominant defense. The Giants had success earlier this season containing the high-powered offense of the New England Patriots and ultimately defeating them.

Should they employ this strategy again and are successful, the Giants have a good shot to hand the Packers their first loss of the year. However, the Giants are a mere shadow of the team that bested the Patriots in Week 9, and won't manage to pull off the same tricks this week.

Chances the Packers win: 85 percent

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Much like the Giants, the St. Louis Rams do have experience defeating a superior foe this season, when they beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 8 and notched their first win of the year. They did so by putting extreme pressure on Saints quarterback Drew Brees and running the ball at will on the strength of Steven Jackson's talents.

Though it's clear that the Niners' Alex Smith is susceptible to pressure, as evidenced in last week's 16-6 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, their defense is far superior to that of the Saints. San Francisco's defense allows just 75.5 rushing yards per game on average this year and has yet to have a rushing touchdown scored on them. The Rams have little chance to win on the road this week.

Chances the Rams win: 25 percent

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

Pressure on quarterback Drew Brees is how you beat the Saints, but the Detroit Lions will be without their best pass rusher as Ndamukong Suh will be serving the first of his two-game suspension this week.

The Lions, while still a good team, proved last week that they're no match for the league's best offenses, and that's exactly what the Saints are. They average the most passing yards per game of any team and Brees is playing better than he has in his already illustrious career.

Detroit may have flashes of brilliance in this game, but the won't notch a win. The Saints are just too strong.

Chances the Lions win: 39 percent

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

On paper, it seems like the San Diego Chargers have finally caught a break, taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars and their league-worst offense on Monday night. The Chargers have lost their last six games and now the one-time Super Bowl favorites are just trying to not end up in last place in the AFC West when the season ends.

The Jaguars have a strong defense, to be sure, but it's also one that has been stymied by injures in recent weeks. The Chargers seem to have a good argument in their favor to stop their dramatic slide; that is, as long as quarterback Philip Rivers can avoid making bad decisions.

Chances the Chargers win: 65 percent

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