Dallas-Philadelphia: Playoffs Start One Week Early

Dallas Cowboys (9-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-5-1)

Cowboys Need Win and They're In

The Cowboys roller coaster regular season has come down to the one gigantic finale against the hated Eagles.  All the Cowboys have to do to secure a wild card spot is win in Philadelphia.   The Eagles need to beat Dallas, plus get help from Oakland and New York in order to advance into the playoffs.   The kickoff time was changed from Noon to 3:15 PM, so the Eagles should know whether they are playing for the post season, or if they have been relegated to spoiler.  Regardless, you can count on a playoff type energy from the crowd.

Eagles Offense Soars at Home

The Eagles have lost only twice at home this season, both to division rivals Washington and New York and both losses were by six points.   The Eagles have quality wins at home this year over playoff bound teams Pittsburgh (15-6) and surprising Atlanta (27-14). 

Philadelphia’s offense seems to especially enjoy the confines of Lincoln Financial Field, averaging 29.4 points per game, almost ten more points than when playing on the road.    In the seven home games, Donovon McNabb has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,750 yards with 13 touchdowns to only three interceptions.  McNabb’s quarterback rating at home this year is 97.3.

Rating Romo versus the Eagles

Romo has faced the Eagles four times in his professional career and has split the series 2-2.   Romo has completed 56 percent of his passes for 992 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.   

The last time Romo and the Cowboys visited Philadelphia, Romo hit 20 of 25 passes for 324 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in the 38-17 road victory.  Earlier this year at Texas Stadium, Romo hit 21 of 30 passes for 312 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.  Romo’s career QB rating against the Eagles is 78.9.   

Romo will be looking for Terrell Owens, who loves to beat his former teammates.   Owens has been nothing short of amazing against his old team.  In the last two games against Philadelphia, Owens has 13 catches for 263 yards and three touchdowns.

Cowboys Special Teams Rides the Short Bus to the Stadium

The Dallas Cowboys are the only team in the NFL who have yet to register a touchback on a kickoff this season.  That’s right, zero. 

The Eagles kick return units are amongst the best in the Conference.  The Eagles are ranked sixth in the NFC on kickoff return average at 23.9 yards and have returned five kicks 40+ yards this season.   

The Eagles also have two punt returns over 40+ yards.  Last week the Cowboys were dominated in the field position battle every time the teams were forced to punt.   Baltimore’s punter Sam Koch launched five balls, averaging 46.6 yards per punt. 

The Cowboys countered with  Sam Palescu’s six punts and 31.5 yard average.  The Cowboys essentially gave away almost the entire length of the football field in the punting exchanges.

Tony Turnover

Back when Dallas first announced that Romo was going to be the new Cowboys starting quarterback, my first reaction was to check Romo’s background and see where he played his baseball.  After all, Cowboys brass seemed more enamored with converting baseball pitchers with big arms (see Chad Hutchison and Drew Henson) then finding an athlete with a football pedigree. 

Once I realized Romo was a Brett Favre starter kit, complete with an affable persona and a way of speaking out of the side of his mouth, my man crush was born. But the honeymoon ended quickly with costly turnovers in games where the only way the Cowboys lose, is if they lose the turnover battle. 

I wrote about it at the time, that Romo is a great player, but if he doesn’t minimize the turnovers, he will never be among the game’s elite.  For the season, Romo has 26 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, a respectable 2:1 ratio. 

For his career, Romo has thrown 81 touchdowns to 45 interceptions. A little less stellar but still not bad.  

The Tony Turnover tag comes when you add in the fumbles.  Last year Romo had ten fumbles but the Cowboys only lost two.  This year, Romo has laid it on the carpet 11 times, losing five.  In fact, Romo has fumbled at least once in eight of twelve games this season and has two multiple fumble games.

Cowboys Turned Safety Off In Texas Stadium Farewell

Starting with the injury to Pro Bowler Roy Williams, the Cowboys have been facing injury problems all season at the safety position. 

Ken Hamlin and Keith Davis have battled injuries all season, but never let other team’s prey on their physical limitations...until last week’s Texas Stadium farewell debacle.  In back to back touchdown runs, the Cowboy’s safeties missed tackles and allowed the Ravens to re-write the record book for longest runs ever at Texas Stadium. 

But it gets worse.  Willis McGahee’s 77 yard touchdown run and LeRon McClain’s 82 yard touchdown run became the longest back-to-back rushing plays in NFL history.

Three Hours to Decide Destiny

If the Cowboys beat Philadelphia and win their first playoff game in over a decade, most fans will consider this a successful season. 

The Super Bowl or bust days ended the same day Dallas lost to the Rams in week seven and dropped to 4-3 on the season.  But should Dallas get beat, you could see whole sale changes made by owner Jerry Jones.   With all the money Jones has already spent on signing bonuses and the massive investment in the new stadium, the Cowboys need to at least make the playoffs. 

Jones is still waiting on approval for $350 million for the new stadium.   Another fortune spent and another season without a playoff win, would make Jones one angry Cowboy.  How much more would Jones spend right now for an entirely healthy roster?

Prediction

Dallas – 30

Philadelphia - 28