Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans: The Doppelgängers

Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin: two fighters who are so alike, yet so different.

Their similarities are clear. Both fighters were winners of the TUF reality series. Both are hard working. Both have improved immensely since their stints on reality TV.

Yet, despite these similarities, there are striking differences.

Forrest Griffin came directly into mixed-martial arts, and while he has always been well-rounded, he has simply improved his skills over the last few years.

In contrast, Rashad Evans came into mixed-martial arts through a background in collegiate wrestling. While he began his career relying upon his wrestling skills, he has shown great improvement.

These two different backgrounds seem to have resulted in contrasting public perceptions. 

Griffin has been portrayed as the former cop who uses his hard work and never-quit attitude to win fights. He is known for his dry humor and for winning against the odds. Griffin quickly became a fan favorite and, despite a few losses, was given a title shot after only two consecutive wins and his victory over Shogun Rua.

On the flip side, Rashad has been portrayed by the UFC as a wrestler and a showboater. He has never been a fan favorite and is routinely booed. Evans has stated that his dancing, which is perceived by some as showboating, is just his natural way of moving in the ring.

Nevertheless, Joe Rogan, Mike Goldberg, and others were quick to latch on to the image of Evans as a showboater, and this has led to his portrayal as somewhat of a villain in the UFC.

When Rashad was going to fight Chuck Liddell, the narrative was obvious: The UFC hero, Chuck Liddell, was going to knock out the showboating and boring wrestler, and go on to fight his former student.

Apparently, Rashad never knew that he was supposed to lose that fight, as he knocked out Liddell in devastating fashion.

All of the portrayals of these fighters mean nothing. If the UFC wants to show a fighter as a villain, or as a hero, they can easily do that with a little bit of editing. So let's just get to the breakdown of the fight.

Skills

Forrest Griffin has shown well-rounded skills throughout his career. In his most recent fights, he has shown good striking from the outside, as well as good jiu-jitsu skills. This has been enough to make up for his lack of power and average wrestling skills.

Evans has obviously shown some ability as a wrestler in his fights.  But aside from that, he has recently shown good boxing, speed, and devastating power. Evans doesn't spend a lot of his time on his back, so it is difficult to gauge his jiu-jitsu abilities.

Strategy

Griffin will likely try to keep any striking on the outside. He will have a definitive reach and height advantage, as well as a more diverse array of strikes.

I don't anticipate Griffin attempting a lot of takedowns in this fight, unless he can injure Rashad, but if he does, he has the ability to use his jiu-jitsu to work well from top position.

Evans will likely employ a similar game plan to his fight against Liddell. In that fight, he used the first round to get the proper timing for Liddell's strikes. In the second round, he moved in and out to land good combinations inside the pocket.

Evans likely has the advantage in power in this fight, and if he moves well he will stand a good chance of doing well on his feet.

But while Evans has an advantage in the wrestling department, it will be interesting to see if he tries to take this fight to the ground, where submission skills become a factor.

Analysis

This is a very tough fight to gauge.  In terms of striking, Griffin has the advantage in reach and variety, but Evans has an advantage in speed and power.

In terms of the wrestling and ground control, Rashad has the advantage, but may make up for that with his jiu-jitsu skills. As I've said, it is tough to properly gauge Rashad's BJJ skills, as he doesn't spend a ton of time on his back. 

That being said, I think Rashad's wrestling might be enough for him to maintain top position if the fight goes to the ground.

So whether the fight is on the feet or on the ground, it is difficult to figure out who actually has the advantage.

Verdict

In terms of fighting skills, these two fighters create a very interesting matchup. It's as close to a toss-up as you can find. In the end, I think that Rashad Evans will be able to land some big punches from the inside and stop Forrest within three rounds.