A Harsh Reality in the AFC

Remember after week eight? The Colts were 3-4. The Tom Brady-less Patriots had just beat the Rams 23-16 and were the least inspirational 5-2 team in the NFL.

The week nine matchup between the two had been scheduled for Sunday Night Football in anticipation of the biggest regular season game of the year, but ever since the Patriots had lost Tom Brady and the Colts had lost the ability to win, the game had lost its meaning. The ugly 18-15 victory for Indianapolis only lessened the expectation that either team was still a legitimate contender in the AFC.

A two-team dominance has defined the NFL since the Patriots and Colts met in the AFC Championship in January 2004. The Patriots won that matchup and made three of the next five Super Bowls, winning two of them, while the Colts took down New England in 2007 to win a Super Bowl of their own.

The 2006 playoffs were the only time that New England and Indianapolis didn't face one another in the postseason, and, fittingly, it was the only year that neither represented the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Certainly, when the Colts managed to play just well enough to beat the Patriots on Novemeber 2nd, it was clear that the two-team dominance in the AFC was officially over...or so everyone thought.

That win was the first of an eight-game winning streak that the Colts are currently in the midst of. The Colts have played a paltry schedule with wins against the Browns, Bengals, and Lions (who are a combined 7-37-1), but that shouldn't obscure that the Colts are running wildly. Seriously, is there anyone that wants to play Peyton Manning when he's fully clicking with his stable of wide receivers!?

Actually, there is one man.

Bill Belichick.

The Patriots have struggled without Tom Brady this season, but after bottoming out against the Colts in Week Nine, repleacment Matt Cassel has helped New England fans forget about their fallen hero. Cassel did all he could with 462 all-purpose yards and three passing touchdowns in an overtime loss against the Jets in Week 11.

In Week 12, he tossed for 415 yards and three scores and also ran one in against Miami. After a Week 13 setback against the Steelers, Cassel has thrown eight touchdowns in three consecutive wins for the Patriots; two of which the Patriots scored 49 and 47 points.

With the Jets dropping a disappointing game in Seattle this afternoon, Cassel got much closer to leading the Patriots back the postseason (and to winning the AFC East) for the seventh consecutive season.

The Patriots must beat the Bills next week to make the playoffs, a high liklihood considering the Bills are 0-5 in the AFC East and rarely manage to get out of their own way. During that game, New England will be scoreboard watching; they'll need the Dolphins to fall to Jets in New York to take the Division or the Ravens to lose at home to Jacksonville to take the Wild Card.

Jacksonville has nothing but pride to play for, but the Jets will have a lot on the line as a Ravens loss and a Jets win would put them in the Wild Card (or the Division, if the Patriots lose), combined with the Dolphins playing in cold weather after a shootout with the 2-13 Kansas City Chiefs, and it's easy to see how the Jets will be the favorite for that game.

All in all, the Patriots don't control their own destiny, but a win would more likely than not send them to the playoffs.

Take Cassel's noticable maturity in the Patriots passing offense, combine that with the experience of Belichick and the Patriots in the playoffs, and this becomes a dangerous team. They could be a team that could upset a few teams and make a deep run into the playoffs...

If you don't see where I'm going with this, just ask the people in Indianapolis; they see it.

The Patriots and the Colts might not be the highest seeded teams in the playoffs like they normally are, but when it comes time for the playoffs, it's a guarantee that it won't matter to Tony Dungy or Bill Belichick's boys, especially since both are playing so well right now.

Both teams would have to win in the Wild Card and then go through Tennessee or Pittsburgh on the road in the Divisional Round, but an Indianapolis-New England AFC Championship game is not as far away as it seemed in Week Nine.

Both the Colts and the Patriots are rolling heading into the end of the season; both know how to win in the postseason; and neither would be surprised to meet the other in the AFC Championship.

The Titans and Steelers are great teams, but it's too early to say that the two-team dominance of the Colts and Patriots in the NFL is over. The Colts have clinched the playoffs and the Patriots are playing their best football to get in; if they both make it in, the rest of the AFC might be playing the third wheel again to a date in the AFC Championship game.