Dolphins vs Cowboys: Why Matt Moore's Hot Streak Ends on Thanksgiving

Miami Dolphins quarterback  Matt Moore has managed to do what few people thought he was capable of doing—truly leading an offense.

With Moore under center, he has finally turned around the team's seven-game losing streak into a three-game span of nothing but wins.

While Moore isn't single-handedly responsible for the Dolphins' recent success, his play has certainly lifted the team into one that has seemed to overcome whatever it was that ailed them in the first half of the season.

In those three wins, Moore has gone 51-of-72, for a 70.8 completion percentage. He's thrown for 613 yards, six touchdowns and one interception in that span, including completing 14 of his 20 pass attempts for 160 yards and three scores in last week's rout of the Buffalo Bills.

He's clearly on fire right now, and while this recent development is obviously welcomed by Miami's fans and the rest of the team, it's just not sustainable.

One look at Moore's performance in his previous three seasons and it doesn't seem like he can keep up this production much longer. He hasn't finished a season with a completion percentage better than 61.6, which he had in 2009, when he threw for 1,053 yards for eight touchdowns and two interceptions in eight games.

He followed that up with a 2010 season during which he threw five touchdowns to 10 interceptions, earning him his release from the Carolina Panthers and finding him ultimately as backup to Chad Henne in Miami.

Henne's season-ending shoulder injury vaulted Moore into the starting position and it seemed that the Dolphins' season was all but lost, with Moore at the helm of the team's next four losses.

However, somewhere in there he managed to step up his play, as did Miami's defense and running back Reggie Bush. With all three components firing on all cylinders, the Dolphins started winning and have yet to stop.

But regression to the mean is a very real aspect of the NFL game. It means that a player—or a team—might have a stretch of uncharacteristic success or failure, but eventually they return to their usual baseline.

This is what's in the cards for Moore in today's game against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has been on their own three-game win streak, with quarterback Tony Romo also throwing six touchdowns (and no picks) throughout that span.

Just like Moore, I believe Romo will also regress somewhat, throwing one or two interceptions. But he won't collapse enough to cost his team the win, while I see Moore returning to the liability he was at the beginning of the season and that he's been in the past.

The Cowboys have the 12th-ranked defense in the NFL through 11 weeks, and rank eighth against the pass. Though Moore's targets have proven increasingly reliable as his play has improved, the Dallas secondary will have them thoroughly covered this week while the team's considerable pass rush puts the pressure on the outmatched Moore.

While Moore has stepped up and outperformed expectations in the last three weeks, that kind of play won't be on display this afternoon.

Though he can certainly turn it around yet again, it will have to wait until next week. For today, we will see the Moore we always thought he was—nervous, inexperienced and prone to making big mistakes when faced with pressure.