Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears Re-Match Preview

Monday night, the Bears could be playing for a chance to stay alive in the hunt for the division title if the Vikings lose against Atlanta Sunday. But that won't make any difference in either team's desire.

That's because the Packers and Bears will definitely be playing for pride. The Bears will be trying to avoid a season sweep at the hands of their longest-standing rivals, and the Packers will be trying to avoid only their second 10-loss season since 1991.

The coach who loses will surely be on the hot-seat, and could even get fired. Both coaches' stock has fallen since they were lauded as among the best in the league in the past two seasons. Both have made moves that warrant their job security being questioned. Both have a chance to all but ensure their employment for one more season with a win.

The Packers' last win was against the Bears on November 16. Since then, the team has been in a tailspin, giving up over 50 points to New Orleans and losing three other games by a total of 11 points in falling out of the playoff picture.

So can they bounce back? Let's take a look at the two teams' matchups, unit-by-unit:

Packers pass offense vs. Bears pass defense: big advantage, Green Bay (+3)

If the Packers are going to win, they may need the weather to cooperate, since this is their only significant edge in this contest. Green Bay averages 234.3 yards per game, good for ninth in the league; the Bears give up 233.6 per game, better than only four teams.

Packers rush offense vs. Bears rush defense: advantage, Chicago (-2)

In the last game, Ryan Grant racked up big yards on the Bears in a rout, and the Packers running game is trending up. But Green Bay averages only 109.2 yards per game (20th in the league), and the Bears defense is usually stingy, giving up just 93.1 yards each week (7th in the league).

Bears pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: advantage, Green Bay (+2)

Similar to the above match-up, this one may be more significant on paper than on the field. While the Packers yield only 206.3 yards per game, ranking just above the equator (13th in the league), they have been gashed lately by New Orleans and Houston, and at key times against Carolina and Jacksonville, as well.

Chicago averages only 192.9 yards per game, ranked 22nd in the NFL, but Devin Hester has begun to show promise as a wide receiver and Kyle Orton has been solid.

Bears rush offense vs. Packers rush defense: slight advantage, Chicago (-1)

The Packers rush defense is actually trending up, but perhaps only because it is becoming easier to pass on them. Currently, Green Bay is ranked 26th in the league, giving up 138.2 yards per game. However, the Bears are only ranked 19th offensively with 109.3 per game.

Special Teams and Intangibles: big advantage, Chicago (-3)

The Packers average 26.5 points per game, fifth-best in the league. One reason for that is the +6 turnover ratio and defense/special teams scoring. Teams score an average of 24.2 points per game against Green Bay, and the Packers rank 21st in that category. San Diego is the only other team in the league with a losing record who has scored more points than their opponents for the season.

That is because when the Packers win, we win big; when we lose, we lose close games. Green Bay is 1-6 in games decided by less than a touchdown and 4-3 in games decided by 10-plus points. That shows an inability to close, a lack of poise, or both.

Meanwhile, Chicago scores 23.6 points per game, ranked 15th in the league, and yields 21.6, ranked 14th in the league. They have a +5 turnover ratio, so there is little difference even on paper in those two stats.

Playing at home and not having the trouble closing the Packers do, this is already a clear advantage to the Bears. And that does not even take into account penalties, where the Packers are surely in worse shape than the Bears, because there are no penalty statistics tracked on NFL.com (The Packers website tracks very intricate information like yards lost from the play nullified, but does not give a number of penalties for number of yards summary!).

On special teams, Mason Crosby and Robbie Gould are both great kickers with virtually identical stats, but the Packers have a slight advantage in the difference between their returns and their coverage (+1.1 yards to +.4 yards).

However, the Bears punting average minus their opponents' return average is only 1.7 yards worse than their opponents punt average minus the Bears' returns; the Packers are -2.4 yards in that category. Hence, the kicking/return/coverage is a wash.

Overall: slight advantage, Bears (-1)

This one matches up very closely on paper, but the passing game is likely to have less effect due to the weather, so it will not be as close as on paper. In fact, I will throw away the analysis differential; I believe the Packers will get their third loss by more than four points: Bears 28-20.