Week 12 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Quarterbacks Who Will Surprise You

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers and Vince Young of the Philadelphia Eagles lead the list of quarterbacks who will surprise their fantasy owners this week.

This list includes top quarterbacks that will have bad weeks as well as lesser quarterbacks who will unexpectedly shine. And since in many fantasy leagues the quarterback position is the most productive, this will mean that there could be a lot of upsets at a key point in the run for the playoffs.

Vince Young: A Good Week

The New England Patriots have been giving up close to 300 passing yards per game. Under normal conditions, you would certainly expect a big day for the Philadelphia Eagles passing attack.

However, the Eagles could be playing without Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. So the question is: what can substitutes Vince Young, Steve Smith and Riley Cooper produce?

While I don't give the Eagles a good chance to win, I do look for Vince Young to have a surprisingly good game. The 18-play drive he led in last week's win against the Giants shows what Young is capable of doing. There really were not any highlight-reel plays, just a steady sequence of first downs to move the chains.

If the Patriots get off to an early big lead, they might play soft on defense and allow the Eagles to slowly move down the field to eat up the clock. In that case, we could see Young getting 225 or more passing yards and two touchdown passes. The icing on the cake would be a meaningless rushing touchdown late in the game when the Patriot's win is well in hand.

Aaron Rodgers: A Bad Week

Aaron Rodgers has had a great season. The Packers lead the league in passing touchdowns with 31 as well as average passing yards per game at 305.  The Packers have three top receivers in Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley. But I think this will be a bad week for Rodgers.

The Lions defense has given up only 10 passing touchdowns and 193 passing yards per game. The Lions use the wide-nine technique to get pressure on the quarterback. They are able to do this without being vulnerable to the run because they have Ndamukong Suh anchoring the middle of their defensive line. Defensive ends Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch each have six sacks.

Add to this the stat that the Packers have given up 13 sacks in their last four games, and the Packers are in trouble this week. Their winning streak will end.

Andy Dalton: A Bad Week

Off of his 347 passing yards last week, you might be tempted to start Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals this week. That was a pretty impressive performance against the Baltimore Ravens without A.J. Green in the lineup.

But his opponent this week, the Cleveland Browns, are the best defensive team against the pass. They are allowing on average only 166 passing yards per game and one touchdown pass. The Browns have neither a large number of sacks nor a large number of interceptions. However, their pass percentage completion allowed is 55, among the lowest in the league.

Cincinnati will win the game, but Dalton will not be a good fantasy producer.

Matt Ryan: A Good Week

This week Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons play the Minnesota Vikings.  Despite leading the league in sacks at 31, the Vikings also lead the league in touchdown passes allowed at 19.  This indicates serious problems in the Vikings secondary.

Adrian Peterson should miss the game due to his ankle injury. That means that the Vikings would lose their best defense: time of possession. So I am looking for Ryan and his receivers to have a big week at home against the Vikings. Passing for 300 or more yards plus three passing touchdowns for Ryan is certainly a realistic expectation here.

Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should be the beneficiaries of this aerial display. White showed signs of starting to heat up last week. Gonzalez has seven touchdowns as he is a reliable, favorite target in the red zone. Rookie Julio Jones might be sidelined again with his second hamstring. Harry Douglas played in his place last week and had four catches for 51 yards.

I'm looking for this to be Ryan's best fantasy day of the year. If it is, I will probably secure a playoff spot in two fantasy leagues.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: A Bad Week

The Buffalo Bills were already in the midst of a big slide, having lost their last three games by a combined score of 106-26. Then this week they had to put their star running back Fred Jackson on the Injured Reserve List.

This week they play the New York Jets, who have allowed less than one passing touchdown per game. The last time the two teams met, the Jets intercepted Fitzpatrick twice and allowed only one late touchdown after the game was already decided.

I realize that the quarterback ranks have been thinned by some recent injuries, but you can't start Fitzpatrick this weekend. If he is the only viable choice on your roster, then pick up Vince Young or even John Skelton if he gets the start.