Weekly NFL Picks: Week 16

It took until Week 15, but I finally tallied a sub-.500 week on the picks. I was so close to making it through the whole season!

Last week was full of high-drama games. Houston needed nearly every one of the 60 minutes they had against Tennessee to squeak out the victory. Baltimore was robbed of a shot at the AFC North crown on a pair of bogus challenge decisions.

I may be a little bias...but the refs clearly blew two calls, including the eventual game-winning touchdown. And I use the term touchdown incredibly loosely.

Week 16 is surely not short of big games, including Saturday night's clash of the titans in Dallas.

Let's get to the picks.

Indianapolis (10-4) over Jacksonville (5-9)

The Jaguars really didn't have any business beating Green Bay last weekend. The Colts are the hottest team in the NFL right now. Fairly simple math here: Colts win and remain hot as January approaches.

Baltimore (9-5) over Dallas (9-5)

The loser of this game isn't necessarily eliminated from playoff contention, but a loss isn't going to help matters.

The buzz coming into this game is the strong play as of late by the Dallas defense. But after last week's controversial loss to the Steelers, the Ravens defense is going to be spitting mad. It's an incredibly tall task to take on Baltimore's defense on a normal day—taking them on with the entire unit fuming will be trouble for Tony Romo and the Dallas run game.

Cincinnati (2-11-1) over Cleveland (4-10)

A second week with a game nobody wants to watch? Are you serious?
This game pits the two worst teams in the AFC. If the Lions had a shot at one of these two, they wouldn't be staring 0-16 straight in the face.

New Orleans (7-7) over Detroit (0-14)

Drew Brees, possibly the league's most valuable player in 2008, faces Detroit's abysmal secondary. There's only one word for this game's result: ugly. The clock is ticking, Detroit. Sixty minutes of football stand between you and ultimate futility.

Pittsburgh (11-3) over Tennessee (12-2)

If Albert Haynesworth is healthy, there's no way the Titans give 4.5 at home. This game will still be closer than some people are seeming to expect, but 2008 has seen most (if not all) the breaks fall for Pittsburgh. What will happen if the Colts and Steelers clash in the playoffs? Talk about prime-time football.

Kansas City (2-12) over Miami (9-5)

Miami's first cold-weather game of the year will be a doozy: highs in the mid-teens with 15-25 mph winds. How the Dolphins respond to the weather will tell a lot of this team's playoff chances in 2008. The weather, and a sneakily dangerous Chiefs team, take down the 'Fins.

San Francisco (5-9) over St. Louis (2-12)

St. Louis can't win at home. That's all you need to know about this team. The 'Niners are fighting to end the season on a decent note after a sour start. With slightly better numbers on both sides of the ball, San Francisco heads home with the victory.

New England (9-5) over Arizona (8-6)

2008 has been anything but normal, but answer this question: Under just about any circumstances, would you take a Bill Belichick-coached team at home in December or the Arizona Cardinals on the road in cold weather? The weather isn't expected to be pretty, which may make this game much the same.

Tampa Bay (9-5) over San Diego (6-8)

Only the Ravens have allowed fewer points at home this season than the Buccaneers have. Tampa Bay is 6-0 at Raymond James Stadium and is looking to bounce back after a pair of tough losses. The Chargers can't beat good teams, and Tampa Bay is a good team.

New York Jets (9-5) over Seattle (3-11)

Seattle seems to be getting luke warm. I don't think you can say a team like Seattle - you know, a team without any real talent—can get hot. Regardless, the Jets have gained confidence after last week's immaculate victory over Buffalo and are feeling the pressure to win this game. The John Madden Game of the Week goes to the J-E-T-S.

Houston (7-7) over Oakland (3-11)

If only the Texans would have played the entire season as they've played it over the past six weeks. Even with wins in its final two games, Houston won't make the playoffs. Oakland, on the other hand, probably forgot what the playoffs are. The slippery slope remains slick for the Raiders.

Buffalo (6-8) over Denver (8-6)

Denver is carrying the weight of the world in this one. Buffalo, now eliminated from the playoffs, has no pressure. Jay Cutler feels a little too much pressure and throws a late pick as the Bills steal one from the Broncos.

Philadelphia (8-5-1) over Washington (7-7)

Jim Zorn must watch his back. After a hot start, the Redskins are free-falling and won't make the playoffs once again. Despite having one of the best rushers in the NFL, Washington just can't seem to get anything right. The Eagles capitalize and look to remain an outside contender for an NFC playoff spot.

Minnesota (9-5) over Atlanta (9-5)

One of the biggest games of the week in the NFC takes place in Minneapolis. The Falcons must win to remain in the hunt for the NFC South crown, while a victory by the Vikings—paired with a Bears loss—gives them the NFC North title.

The NFL's top two rushers—Minnesota's Adrian Peterson and Atlanta's Michael Turner—clash with the spotlight sure to be shining on the two feature backs. The Falcons' 22nd-ranked run defense will doom them, though.

Carolina (11-3) over New York Giants (11-3)

There is no two ways about it: The winner of this game will hold home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The defending champs have come back to earth a little in the last two weeks while the Panthers have kept on rolling along.

Carolina's top-notch pass rush will fluster Eli Manning enough to force him into mistakes and steer the road to Super Bowl XLIII through Charlotte.

Chicago (8-6) over Green Bay (5-9)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After a 13-3 campaign in 2007, the Packers just can't seem to get it right. Chicago and Green Bay usually play close games, with the edge going to the Bears at Soldier Field.

Last season, the Bears thoroughly handed the Packers their backsides, and while that probably won't happen this weekend, the Bears should cruise to victory.

Last week: 7-9
Overall record: 143-78-1