Falcons-Vikings: Five Things Atlanta Needs to Do in Week 16

Sunday’s matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings is a regular-season game by definition only. To everyone that’s paying attention, it’s essentially a play-in game for the playoffs.

If Minnesota, winners of four in a row, wins they would secure the NFC North if the Chicago Bears lose to Green Bay on Monday night.

If Atlanta wins, they’ll need Tampa Bay or Dallas to lose to slide back into the fifth or sixth seed.

The bottom line is this: Both teams need to win.

And when both team’s seasons are on the line, it always makes for a great game. Expect this one to be of that variety.

It’ll also be a little old-fashioned. The NFL’s best run defense in the Vikings will look to stop the NFL’s top rushing offense in Atlanta.

Both teams will need to do exactly what everyone says winners must do in football: Run the ball and stop the run.

Atlanta’s running cause is helped by the subtraction of defensive tackle Pat Williams, Minnesota’s premier run stopper. They’ll miss the 6’3”, 317 pound man-in-the-middle and expect Falcons’ running back Michael Turner to run directly at Williams’ replacement Fred Evans.

Atlanta got some more good news this week when running back Adrian Peterson showed up in the injury report. The NFL’s leading rusher is nursing an ankle injury and has been limited in practice since Wednesday.

The game breaks down to be one for the ages with both teams looking to end the other’s playoff hopes. If they accomplish these five things, the Falcons will have reason to root even harder against Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Stop the run

For the second week in a row, this is a key, as it should be almost every week (unless you’re playing the Colts). But it’s of the highest importance this week. I considered listing it twice. That’s how critical it is.

The Vikings rushing attack features Peterson, as I mentioned the NFL’s leading rusher, who averages an impressive 4.9 yards a carry. They also have Chester Taylor, who is no slouch in his own right. Taylor, despite limited play, has found the end zone six times this season, four rushing and two receiving. He’s seeking his fifth game in a row with a touchdown. 

The Falcons’ run defense has been inconsistent all season, but they need another performance like they turned in last week, holding the Buccaneers to 99 yards rushing. The standout performance of the season came in Week 13 against the San Diego Chargers. They held perennial Pro Bowler LaDainian Tomlinson to 24 yards.

The Falcons don’t expect to stop Peterson, but they do hope to contain him. One of the ways to take him out of the game plan is to jump out to their patented early leads. If they can score early and get the Vikings behind, Minnesota may have to abandon the running game and put the game in the hands of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, which is surely what they do NOT want to do.

One subtle move last week that appeared to pay dividends was the insertion of reserve linebacker Coy Wire at the strong side linebacker slot, in place of Michael Boley. Wire played on running downs and Boley played on passing downs. Wire, playing with great energy, did a good job breaking free of blocks and finished the game with eight tackles.

In Week 3 Carolina held Peterson to 77 yards, but still lost. Minnesota played arguably its best game of the season on defense and the Panthers were unable to do anything. Even if they contain Peterson, Atlanta still needs to do just the opposite on offense.

Establish the run

You guessed it, right? After you stop the run, what do you need to do? That’s right—run the ball.

On Sunday that will be easier said than done.

While quarterback Matt Ryan has been credited with much of Atlanta’s success, Turner is truly where Atlanta’s bread is buttered. He ranks behind only Peterson in rushing in the NFL. He sports an equally impressive 4.3 yards a carry and 15 rushing touchdowns, tops in the league among running backs.

The Falcons have confidence in Ryan and believe he can win the game if he has to, but they’ll be content to run Turner all day if allowed. Ryan averages 27 passes a game. When he throws more than 30 times in a game, they’re 1-5.

As mentioned before, the absence of Williams will help Atlanta’s running cause. Evans’ play will be critical. Turner is a between-the-tackles kind of runner and look for the Falcons to exploit that match up.

If the running game can be established, Ryan will take advantage of it. Atlanta’s offensive line hasn’t allowed a sack in five of its last six games and they’ll need to continue to provide that kind of protection if there’s any hope of being effective in the passing game.

Dangerous Minnesota defensive end Jared Allen will look to track down the rookie signal caller as much as possible on Sunday. Allen is an intense player that seems to never stop, not even for injuries. He’s been battling injuries in the last few weeks, yet he still has at least two sacks in each of the last three games.

Left tackle Todd Weiner will draw the responsibility for covering Allen, but he’ll get some help from Sam Baker, the Opening Day starter, who returned to action last week after a back injury. The rotation of fresh players will be helpful at the tackle position as they look to slow Allen down all game.

The Vikings feature two talented cornerbacks. Antoine Winfield is a Pro Bowler this season and Cedric Griffin has played well also. Griffin was especially effective last week as he held Arizona Cardinals Pro Bowl receiver Larry Fitzgerald to only 52 yards and no touchdowns. The Atlanta receivers will have a tough job against those two.

Limit penalties on offense

The Metrodome is a loud place.

Center Todd McClure says it’s one of the loudest stadiums to play in.

Expect the home fans to be as loud as possible when Atlanta’s on offense, trying to disrupt snap counts. The Falcons can’t afford false start penalties as every yard of field position will be critical.

In Week 14, at another dome stadium, Atlanta earned two false start penalties against the New Orleans Saints. While not critical to the outcome of the game, the offense hopefully learned from that experience.

Atlanta benefits from the 10-year veteran at center. The offensive line will rely on him to employ a silent snap count at times when the crowd noise will be too loud to use traditional verbal signals from the quarterback.

"Guys have to be on it paying attention," McClure says of the silent count. "I have to do the same thing every time so they can anticipate the snap."

Get to the quarterback

For the sake of balance, the Vikings won’t run on every down, that much can be assured. So when they are passing, the Falcons need to get to the quarterback.

The Vikings’ offensive line has been superb in run blocking this season, but they’ve been less successful protecting the quarterback. They’ve given up 38 sacks this season, tied for seventh worst in the league.

Veteran quarterback Gus Frerottetook over in Week 3, after poor play from starter Jackson. Frerotte went down with an injury in Week 14 and Jackson has returned to play well.

The Vikings only average 181 yards passing a game and have thrown 16 interceptions. Jackson has been named the starter for Sunday, and while there’s not a lot of recent information on him, he’s proven to make poor decisions with the football in the past.

Since regaining the job, Jackson is 19-for-27 with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He was exceptional last week against Arizona, throwing for four touchdowns. Atlanta’s defense will be the best he’s faced in the last two weeks. Expect Pro Bowl-snub defensive end John Abraham to see double teams all day and if the other defensive end Jamaal Anderson can come up with pressure on Jackson it will go a long way toward containing the Vikings’ offense.

Atlanta cornerbacks have to play well

Atlanta will need its safeties to assist in run defense so the cornerbacks will find themselves in man-to-man coverage a lot.

A strong Atlanta pass rush will help, but the cornerbacks still need to play well against the Vikings receivers.

Minnesota wide receiver Bernard Berrian is having a good season and he has two touchdowns in the last three games. He’s averaging almost 21 yards a catch and is always capable of taking one to the house. His only catch last week was a 41-yard touchdown reception. In Week 13, he had a 99-yard touchdown reception against the Chicago Bears.

Cornerback Brent Grimes will be back for the Falcons and the extra depth will be helpful. They’ll need to stay physical with the Vikings’ receivers and make a play or two when needed. If they can get an interception, it may be the difference in the game.

This article originally appeared on the Atlanta Falcons Examiner page. To view, go here.