NFL Week 12 Picks: Why Home Cookin' Will Reign Supreme on Thanksgiving Day

Thanksgiving is a time to go home and visit your family while eating lots of food. It’s also a terrific time to play a home NFL game.

The Week 12 slate features three games on Turkey Day, and all three home teams have the clear advantage against the spread.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com.)

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6)

The Packers aren’t going undefeated, not with the 31^st ranked pass defense. The Bucs game was a lot closer than the final margin suggested, as it seems teams are figuring out how to contain QB Aaron Rodgers.

I didn’t say stop him, just contain. Tampa’s Cover Two “held” Rodgers to less than 300 yards and even picked him off once.

It’s hard for Rodgers to use the full playbook when the running game is so inconsistent. James Starks is likely going to miss this game due to injury and Ryan Grant looks like a shell of his former self.

I think the Lions can exploit this and rely on their top-10 pass defense to be able to limit Rodgers.

With a field day by QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson, the Pack get their first lost of the year in front of a Ford Field crowd that will be rocking.

Prediction: Lions 31, Packers 30

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Let’s not over think this one.

The Cowboys have feasted on lesser opponents this season and the ‘Fins certainly qualify. Their three-game winning streak is nice, but let’s remember the three teams they’ve beaten (Chiefs, Redskins, Bills).

Expect emerging star RB DeMarco Murray to run this defense ragged on the short week. QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys' underrated defense will take care of the rest.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 13

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

The Harbough bowl will come down to simple logistics—no team has ever won on a four-day week when having to travel at least 1,500 miles.

LB Ray Lewis is still questionable, but you have to figure the exotic blitzing schemes of the Ravens will force some poor decisions by QB Alex Smith that will result in turnovers.

The 49ers may have the best defense in the league, but they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row of QBs. QB Joe Flacco will be able to move the ball as long as RB Ray Rice is getting a steady diet of carries.

Remember: The Ravens have won seven in a row at home and 15 out of 16.

Prediction: Ravens 23, 49ers 17