Bowl Projections: Arkansas and Teams Most Likely to Get Shafted by BCS

The craziness of the 2011 college football season has left behind a mess that the BCS is ill-equipped to deal with.

Yet, as some BCS proponents will surely tell you, it's the best (read: only) system we have, so we'll all just have to live with the consequences of the choices made by the voters and the numbers crunched by the computers.

Sure, sure. Try breaking the bad news to these teams when all hell breaks loose.

Arkansas

Arkansas should be riding high, right? They're ranked third in the BCS and, with a win over No. 1 LSU on Friday, will be in prime position to play for the national championship...

Or not. It's entirely possible, actually, that the Razorbacks will get shut out of the BCS picture entirely, regardless of whether they win or lose in the Battle for the Golden Boot. If the Hogs pull off the upset and Alabama beats Auburn, then the Crimson Tide will likely "win" the SEC West by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker and play Georgia in the conference championship game as a result. Should the Bulldogs beat Bama, then they would go on to play in the Sugar Bowl, leaving the door open for LSU to sneak back into the national title game against, say, Oklahoma State or Virginia Tech.

All of which would leave Arkansas wanting in the end. Granted, there are still scenarios in which the Hogs could crack the BCS for the second year in a row, though they would all require that one of the two between LSU and Alabama doesn't get a bid.

Which is to say, Bobby Petrino's boys are liable to get bumped.

Boise State

The Broncos must be kicking themselves over their loss to TCU at home last week, seeing as how the college football gods have since parted the seas separating Kellen Moore and company from the coveted crystal football.

It's entirely possible that Boise State will creep even higher than their current perch at No. 7 and still get left out of the mix, passed over instead for the likes of Oklahoma and Michigan or cast aside by the powers-that-be, who believe extending a bid to an undefeated Houston team to be penance enough for their bowl-busting sins.

This, despite the fact that the Broncos' season-opening stomping of Georgia looks better and better by the week and may well stand out as a victory over the SEC champion in two weeks' time.

Then again, if the Broncos were keen to play in the BCS, they probably should've won their own conference, the Mountain West, before they went about trying to buck the system.

And if you think being highly ranked should be enough to merit Boise State's inclusion in the big bowl dance, just ask the 1998 Kansas State team that finished third in the BCS but landed instead in the Alamo Bowl after losing in double overtime to Texas A&M in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Kansas State

Speaking of Kansas State (great transition, right?), the 11th-ranked Wildcats look bound to exile from the BCS, assuming even some things across the college football landscape go according to plan.

Much of K-State's fate lies in the result of the Bedlam Game on December 3rd. If Oklahoma State wins, then the Wildcats may have an outside shot at the BCS by virtue of leapfrogging Oklahoma as the second-best team out of the Big 12. However, if the Sooners cruise to their ninth straight bruising of the Cowboys, then Bill Snyder's squad will probably have to settle for the Cotton Bowl.

And suppose OK State emerges victorious, the Manhattan 'Cats could still be told to scram, with the money-grubbing bigwigs of the BCS (once again) favoring bigger draws like Michigan and Wisconsin to fill their stadiums.

Rank	Team	BCS Average
1	LSU	.9933
2	Alabama	.9642
3	Arkansas	.9099
4	Oklahoma State	.8755
5	Virginia Tech	.8400
6	Stanford	.7974
7	Boise State	.6935
8	Houston	.6755
9	Oklahoma	.6747
10	Oregon	.5959
11	Kansas State	.567
12	South Carolina	.528
13	Georgia	.497
14	Michigan State	.453
15	Michigan	.439
16	Wisconsin	.382
17	Clemson	.333
18	Baylor	.295
19	Penn State	.252
20	TCU	.245
21	Nebraska	.230
22	Notre Dame	.136
23	Georgia Tech	.120
24	Auburn	.079
25	Texas	.071